Trump’s October 2025 Asia swing—spanning Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea—has netted tangible gains, underscoring a transactional diplomacy that prioritizes ledger lines over ideological crusades. In Kuala Lumpur, he inked deals covering 68% of the $475 billion U.S.-ASEAN trade volume, including Malaysia’s $70 billion U.S. investment pledge and Thailand’s $18.8 billion Boeing order. Cambodia and Thailand’s border truce, mediated via tariff threats, averted a humanitarian crisis displacing 50,000 since July.
Yet the tour exposes fault lines. Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a reaffirmed U.S. security umbrella amid China’s rare earth curbs, but South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol balked at full-throated anti-Beijing rhetoric, citing $244 billion in bilateral trade. Polls reveal unease: only 20% of Taiwanese now deem the U.S. “trustworthy,” down 10 points from 2024, while Japanese faith in U.S. defense commitments dipped to 15%.
Economically, Trump’s tariffs have reshaped flows. U.S. manufacturing jobs hit 13 million in Q3 2025, up 6% since 2017, with reshoring adding $52 billion via the CHIPS Act. But at what cost? Household expenses rose $1,300 annually, and global GDP forecasts trimmed 0.2% for 2026 per IMF models. In Asia, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. surged 50%, but at 49% duties, Cambodia’s garment sector faces 20% contraction.
Alliances endure, with AUKUS and Quad intact. But fragility looms—his “madman” unpredictability erodes trust, pushing neutrals toward hedging. As one Southeast Asian diplomat noted in recent talks, “We’re not choosing sides; we’re surviving the storm.”
Can Tariffs Topple the Global South Bloc?
The Global South’s nascent anti-U.S. axis—fueled by BRICS expansion to 10 members and nine partners by January 2025—promised a dollar-dethroning revolt. Representing 46% of world population and 35.6% GDP, it eyed a unified currency or blockchain settlements to bypass SWIFT. Trump’s July Rio threats of 10% “anti-American” penalties, plus 50% hits on India and Brazil, aimed to splinter this.
Data suggests partial success. BRICS intra-trade hit $244 billion in 2024 (China-Russia alone), but 2025 growth slowed to 8% amid tariff fallout—India’s Russian oil imports dipped 15% post-sanctions. Smaller states like Ethiopia and Iran, hit with 30% levies, paused NDB funding talks. Yet unity persists: Lula-Modi calls tripled bilateral trade to $20 billion by 2030, while Indonesia’s BRICS entry (January 2025) rerouted 25% of exports from U.S. markets.
| Indicator | Pre-Tariff (2024) | Post-Tariff (Q3 2025) | Impact on Anti-U.S. Cohesion |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRICS Intra-Trade Growth | 12% YoY | 8% YoY | Slowed but resilient; China-India flights resumed |
| Dollar Use in Settlements | 88% | 82% | Yuan/ruble trades up 20%; no full de-dollar pivot |
| New Partner Inquiries | 15 nations | 12 nations | Saudi hesitation; Vietnam joins as partner |
| Joint Statements vs. U.S. | 4 (G20) | 6 (APEC/Rio) | Veiled tariff critiques; multilateralism push |
Weakening? Marginally—Trump’s coercion isolated outliers like South Africa (30% duties for “ethnic cleansing” claims). But overall, tariffs have galvanized resistance: BRICS’ Rio declaration condemned “unilateral measures,” and Global South FDI to China rose 15%. As economist Jeffrey Sachs observed, “Tariffs unified BRICS overnight.” The alliance frays at edges but thickens at the core, turning Trump’s stick into their glue.
Carrots for Lula:
Brazil, BRICS’ linchpin with $410 billion U.S. trade surplus over 15 years, faces Trump’s sharpest blade: 50% tariffs tied to Bolsonaro’s coup trial. Yet amid the pain—beef exports down 40% since August—opportunities emerge. Lula’s October 26 Kuala Lumpur huddle with Trump yielded a “guaranteed” deal, launching talks to slash duties in exchange for concessions.
Potential offers, per bilateral trackers:
- Investment Floodgates: U.S. pledges $50-100 billion in agribusiness and biofuels, mirroring Malaysia’s $70 billion. Brazil’s Embraer eyes Boeing offsets, exempting aircraft from levies.
- Energy Lifeline: LNG imports at preferential rates, countering EU-Mercosur delays. Trump could waive “free speech” tariffs if Moraes sanctions lift.
- Tech Thaw: eased Huawei bans for 5G, plus IP carve-outs for soy/genetics—vital as China absorbs 28% of Brazil’s exports.
These dangle autonomy: Brazil’s “Sovereign Brazil” aid ($10 billion for exporters) cushions blows, but U.S. inflows could fund Amazon COP30 pledges. Risks? Over-reliance echoes India’s 2024 oil woes. Lula’s pivot—deepening China ties (24% imports)—suggests hedging, not capitulation. As one Brasília analyst quipped, “Trump offers gold; Xi offers volume.” Brazil may nibble, but BRICS beckons.
Does Trump’s Hammer Forge or Fracture the Bloc?
Trump’s BRICS broadside—labeling it “dead” post-Rio’s “low turnout”—masks a boomerang effect. Attendance hit records: 10 members, nine partners, including Indonesia’s debut. Intra-trade, stagnant at 5% pre-tariffs, rebounded to 12% in Q2 2025 as members rerouted via RCEP.
His 10% “alignment” penalty backfired spectacularly. India’s China flights resumed, easing visa curbs; Brazil-China trade swelled 15%. De-dollar trials—yuan settlements up 20%—gained steam, with NDB approving $5 billion in non-USD loans. Expansion defied threats: Vietnam as partner, Malaysia/Thailand eyeing full entry.
Critics like Max Boot decry “strategic malpractice,” uniting “friends with enemies.” Data agrees: BRICS GDP share climbed to 36% amid U.S. isolationism. Trump’s hammer? It’s tempering steel—BRICS emerges tougher, with Rio’s “multipolar” call echoing across G20. Fracture? Not yet; fortification, absolutely.
Will Lula’s Brazil Fold Like Modi’s “Weak Link”?
India’s BRICS role has long irked Washington: Quad partner yet Russian oil buyer (68.7 billion trade vs. EU’s 77.9 billion). Trump’s 50% duties—plus 10% for “Putin ties”—punish New Delhi’s multialignment, yet Modi holds firm. Bilateral trade hit $12 billion in 2024; post-tariff calls with Lula vow $20 billion by 2030, expanding Mercosur pacts.
Brazil mirrors but diverges. Unlike India’s U.S. tech/security tilt (300K reshored jobs), Brazil’s economy—strong at 2.5% growth—leans China (28% exports). Lula’s nationalism, buoyed by tariff rage, rejects “one-sided” concessions Japan/EU swallowed. Bolsonaro sanctions? They rally domestic support, unlike Modi’s quiet hedging.
Will Brazil “prove weak like India”? Unlikely. India’s “paradoxical” stance—BRICS founder, U.S. ally—buffers via diversification (Russian oil down 15%, Vietnam up 50%). Brazil, less U.S.-tethered, accelerates South-South ties: Africa/Europe pivots absorb 75% rerouted exports. Both hedge, but Brazil’s defiance—calling Trump an “emperor”—signals resilience, not rupture. As Spektor notes, “They’re buying time, not bending knees.”
| Factor | India (Modi) | Brazil (Lula) | “Weak Ally” Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Surplus | $36B (2024) | $410B (15 yrs) | Brazil more exposed, but diversified |
| BRICS Stance | Multialign (Quad + RIC) | Reformist (Amazon focus) | India hedges; Brazil unites |
| Post-Tariff Response | Modi-Xi thaw; Lula call | Sovereign aid; China pivot | Neither folds—both accelerate alternatives |
| Domestic Backlash | Low (oil needs) | High (nationalism surge) | Brazil’s rally strengthens resolve |
Beijing’s Lens:
China views Trump’s diplomacy as a gift-wrapped geopolitical vacuum. Xi’s hand? Bolstered by industrial heft—$34 billion Cambodia FDI—and supply chain strangleholds. Beijing’s Commerce Ministry dismisses tariffs as “tiger-skin seeking,” warning Asia of U.S. futility. Post-Rio, China-Russia trade record $244 billion; yuan settlements hit 82% in BRICS.
From Beijing: Trump’s “fragile” style—fentanyl blame, 145% peaks—isolates Washington. Southeast Asia tilts: Anwar Ibrahim cites U.S. disengagement as China’s “positive attitude” opening. BRICS expansion? Beijing’s multilateral play, with zero-tariff LDC policies drawing Africa/Asia.
Yet wariness persists. Trump’s Xi invite signals pragmatism, but Taiwan/Taiwan rhetoric chills. As Tangen notes, Trump eyes “dividing China-Russia”—a non-starter. China wins by default: steady BRI vs. erratic tweets. In 2025’s multipolar scrum, Beijing’s the patient architect; Trump’s the impatient disruptor.
Trump’s Asian front scores tactical hits—deals, truces, leverage—but strategically? It’s a pyrrhic push. Tariffs dent BRICS momentum yet forge its steel; Brazil/India defy as “weak links” harden. China watches, waits, expands. By 2026, with COP30 and G20 spotlights, the Global South may not weaken—but redefine power sans U.S. anchor.
