In the ongoing quest for stability in the Middle East, the Gaza ceasefire plan has transitioned to its second phase despite significant shortcomings in the initial stage. Announced by US officials on January 16, 2026, this move raises critical questions about the viability of the agreement and its potential to end the protracted conflict. With reports of continued violations and minimal progress, experts and observers are debating whether advancing prematurely could undermine peace efforts or force concessions.
What Was Supposed to Happen in Phase 1 of the Gaza Ceasefire Plan?
The Gaza ceasefire, part of a broader 20-point framework proposed by US President Donald Trump, commenced on October 10, 2025, aiming to de-escalate hostilities and lay groundwork for negotiations. Phase 1 was designed as a foundational step to build trust and address immediate humanitarian crises. Key elements included:
- Immediate Halt to Hostilities: A complete cessation of military actions by both Israel and Palestinian groups, including airstrikes, ground operations, and rocket fire, to create a safe environment for civilians.
- Hostage and Prisoner Exchange: The release of all living Israeli captives (estimated at around 20) and the bodies of deceased ones held by Hamas, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners detained by Israel. This was to occur swiftly, with Hamas expected to free captives within 72 hours of the ceasefire’s start. Israel was to reciprocate by releasing over 1,900 Palestinians, including those serving life sentences.
- Partial Israeli Withdrawal: Israeli forces were to pull back to a designated “yellow line,” a boundary encompassing more than 50% of Gaza’s territory, marked by yellow concrete blocks. This withdrawal aimed to reduce occupation in densely populated areas and allow Palestinians greater freedom of movement.
- Unrestricted Humanitarian Aid Delivery: Full access for aid convoys, targeting a minimum of 500-600 trucks per day to meet Gaza’s needs for food, medicine, fuel, and other essentials. This included lifting restrictions on nutritious items like meat, dairy, and vegetables.
- Reopening of the Rafah Crossing: The border between Gaza and Egypt was to be fully operationalized under agreed-upon terms, facilitating the flow of people, goods, and aid without Israeli veto.
The purpose of these measures was to stabilize the region, alleviate the humanitarian catastrophe—where famine and displacement affected millions—and set the stage for deeper talks. Success in Phase 1 was seen as essential for momentum, with the US emphasizing compliance to prevent escalation.
Israel’s Implementation of Phase 1: Only One Percent Fulfilled?
Despite the ambitious goals, Phase 1’s execution has been marred by inconsistencies, leading to accusations of minimal compliance. Reports indicate that while some elements were partially met, the overall implementation fell far short, prompting claims from Palestinian officials and observers that Israel adhered to just “one percent” of the agreed terms—a figure symbolizing negligible progress amid ongoing restrictions. This rhetoric, often tied to aid shortfalls, underscores frustrations over what was achieved versus promised.
Breaking it down:
- Ceasefire Violations: Hostilities did not fully cease. Israeli forces reportedly violated the truce 1,193 times between October 10, 2025, and January 9, 2026, through airstrikes, artillery, and shootings. This resulted in at least 451 Palestinian deaths and 1,251 injuries, including over 100 children. Attacks occurred on 82 out of 97 days, with only 15 days free of violence.
- Exchange of Captives and Prisoners: Hamas released all 20 living Israeli captives and 27 out of 28 bodies of deceased ones, facilitating the return of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. However, Israel allegedly failed to release all agreed-upon detainees, particularly women, children, and medical professionals like doctors held without charges. Equipment for identifying deceased Palestinians was also withheld.
- Withdrawal Shortcomings: No complete pullback to the “yellow line” occurred. Instead, Israeli forces reportedly shifted boundaries to expand control, conducted demolitions, and displaced more Palestinians into confined areas.
- Aid Delivery Failures: Only 23,019 trucks entered Gaza from October 10, 2025, to January 9, 2026—averaging 255 per day, or about 43% of the required 54,000. Restrictions favored non-essential items like snacks over nutritious foods, and over three dozen aid organizations were banned. Earlier assessments, such as those from humanitarian groups, described incoming supplies as covering “one percent” of needs, highlighting a “drop in the ocean” effect that exacerbated malnutrition and health crises.
- Rafah Crossing Closure: The border remains shut, with Israeli officials conditioning its reopening on the recovery of the last deceased captive’s body, believed to be under rubble. This has severely hampered aid and movement.
Palestinian representatives, including Hamas political bureau member Suhail al-Hindi, have accused Israel of deliberate delays and failures, such as holding medical personnel and stalling on prisoner releases. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tied the Rafah issue to hostage recovery, while critics argue these actions reflect a strategy to maintain control. The “one percent” claim, echoed in humanitarian reports, amplifies perceptions of token compliance, fueling distrust.
Will Israel’s Partial Implementation Bring Peace to Gaza?
The incomplete nature of Phase 1 casts doubt on the ceasefire’s sustainability and its ability to foster genuine peace. Analysts argue that with only fractional adherence—symbolized by the “one percent” critique—the plan risks collapsing into renewed conflict rather than resolution. Key concerns include:
- Erosion of Trust: Ongoing violations and aid blockages have deepened Palestinian grievances, making concessions in later phases unlikely. Hamas has expressed openness to certain terms but insists on full implementation, warning that partial efforts undermine the process.
- Humanitarian Toll: Continued deaths, displacement, and shortages perpetuate instability. Reports of mental trauma, malnutrition (affecting children disproportionately), and environmental destruction from military operations suggest long-term harm that could fuel future resistance.
- Political Dynamics: The US push to Phase 2 despite shortcomings may pressure Israel but also signals leniency, potentially encouraging further delays. Public opinion in Israel shows a plurality viewing US influence as dominant in security matters, which could sway policy but hasn’t yet led to full compliance. Internationally, calls for accountability, including legal analyses of conduct, highlight risks of escalation if peace falters.
Ultimately, partial implementation is unlikely to bring lasting peace without enforcement mechanisms. It may provide temporary respite but leaves root issues—occupation, governance, and security—unresolved, potentially leading to breakdowns as seen in past agreements.
What Is the Purpose of Phase 2 in the Gaza Ceasefire Plan?
Phase 2 shifts focus from immediate de-escalation to structural changes, aiming for long-term stability. Declared by the US despite Phase 1’s gaps, it emphasizes:
- Demilitarization: Disarmament of unauthorized groups in Gaza, including heavy weapons surrender by Palestinian factions. This is intended to reduce threats and create a secure environment.
- Technocratic Governance: Establishment of a transitional Palestinian administration led by non-partisan technocrats, potentially involving regional players like Qatar and Turkey. This panel would oversee daily affairs, sidelining militant groups.
- Reconstruction Efforts: Initial steps toward rebuilding infrastructure destroyed in the conflict, with international aid to address housing, health, and economy.
The purpose is to transition Gaza toward self-governance without armed factions dominating, paving the way for Phase 3’s full reconstruction and possible statehood discussions. Talks in Cairo involving Hamas and other groups are underway, but success hinges on resolving Phase 1 disputes.
Future of Gaza and Regional Peace
As Phase 2 begins amid unresolved issues, the Gaza ceasefire plan teeters between hope and fragility. Trump’s framework, while ambitious, faces hurdles from on-ground realities and mutual suspicions. For true peace, full implementation across phases is crucial—otherwise, the cycle of violence may persist. Stakeholders must prioritize humanitarian needs and dialogue to avoid further catastrophe, with the international community playing a pivotal role in enforcement.
