In an era of escalating global tensions, Donald Trump’s return to the White House has ushered in a wave of unpredictable trade measures that are reshaping international alliances. From a European perspective, these policies—marked by high tariffs and arbitrary threats—threaten to undermine decades of transatlantic cooperation while inadvertently bolstering China’s influence. As nations scramble to diversify their economic ties, the question arises: Is Trump’s protectionism accelerating a multipolar world order?
The Unpredictable Nature of Trump’s Trade Agenda
Trump’s trade policies stand out for their erratic and aggressive approach, reversing long-standing U.S. commitments to free trade. Since January 2026, the administration has imposed double-digit tariffs on imports from nearly every country, with additional levies targeting sectors like steel and automobiles—the highest such barriers since the Great Depression. These moves, often framed as tools to force manufacturing back to American soil, have included threats against close allies for seemingly unrelated issues.
For instance, in October, Trump threatened 10% tariffs on Canadian imports in retaliation for a provincial advertisement criticizing his tariff tactics, though the threat was not followed through. More recently, on January 16, 2026, he warned of tariffs on countries opposing U.S. efforts to control Greenland, a Danish territory. Such unpredictability creates a climate of uncertainty, as noted by experts who argue it erodes trust in U.S. leadership. Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, highlighted the shift in perceptions: “The economic threat from the United States is now seen by Canadians as far greater than the threat from China. That’s a big problem.”
This marks a stark departure from post-World War II U.S. policies that championed open markets. Trump claims these tariffs will generate revenue, protect domestic industries, and attract foreign investment, evidenced by a January 16, 2026, deal with Taiwan where tariffs were reduced from 20% to 15% in exchange for $250 billion in U.S. investments. Yet, critics warn that this “fiscal madness” could fuel inflation and weaken American competitiveness.
Driving Allies Away: The Case of Canada and Beyond
The fallout from Trump’s policies is most evident in how they are alienating traditional U.S. partners, prompting them to seek alternatives. Canada, a key ally, has been repeatedly targeted, with ongoing tariffs on steel and aluminum exacerbating tensions. In a bold move on January 16, 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed a deal in Beijing to slash Canada’s 100% import tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) to 6.1%, in exchange for reduced Chinese tariffs on Canadian agricultural products like canola seeds (from 84% to 15%).
Carney justified the agreement as essential for building Canada’s competitive EV sector: “China produces some of the most affordable and energy-efficient vehicles in the world. For Canada to build its own competitive EV sector, we need to learn from innovative partners, access their supply chains, and boost domestic demand.” However, this pivot raises risks, including job losses for Canadian autoworkers due to Chinese competition, as criticized by Ontario Premier Doug Ford: “China now has a back door into the Canadian market and will use it to its full advantage at the expense of Canadian workers.” The deal includes quotas limiting subsidized Chinese EVs to 49,000 units initially, rising to 70,000 over five years.
Mary Lovely from the Peterson Institute for International Economics pointed out the irony: Trump’s hostility toward EVs, favoring fossil fuels, threatens to make North American auto industries obsolete while China advances in battery and electronics technology. This shift could complicate the 2026 renewal of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with Trump potentially demanding concessions or threatening withdrawal. Canada’s heavy reliance on U.S. exports—75% of its goods—makes this vulnerability acute.
Europe’s Response: Diversification and New Alliances
From a French and broader European viewpoint, Trump’s tactics are accelerating a strategic realignment. The European Union, wary of U.S. protectionism, has moved to strengthen ties elsewhere. On January 18, 2026, the EU finalized a trade pact with the Mercosur bloc (including Brazil and Argentina) and is advancing negotiations with India. These efforts reflect a deliberate strategy to reduce dependence on the U.S. amid tariff threats.
In France, where agricultural and industrial sectors are sensitive to trade disruptions, such policies evoke concerns over economic sovereignty. The broader EU context underscores fears that Trump’s approach could fragment global supply chains, pushing Europe toward deeper integration with emerging markets. As China diversifies its exports to Europe and Southeast Asia, achieving a record $1.19 trillion trade surplus in 2025 despite U.S. tariffs, the balance of power shifts. This resilience highlights Beijing’s adaptability, contrasting with Washington’s confrontational stance.
Economic Implications and Global Risks
Economically, Trump’s policies risk slowing global growth in 2026, exacerbated by tariffs and geopolitical strains, as warned by the United Nations. Analyses from think tanks like the Centre for Economic Policy Research suggest these measures could undermine industries on both sides of the Atlantic. For allies like Canada, deals with China signal a “huge statement of economic realignment,” per Alden, offering leverage in future negotiations but heightening risks amid historical Sino-Canadian tensions.
William Reinsch, a former U.S. trade official, cautions that punishing Canada could backfire, given mutual dependencies in autos and agriculture. Ultimately, Trump’s strategy may isolate the U.S., fostering a world where partners like Europe and Canada increasingly turn to China for stability.
