As the world shifts from fossil fuels toward cleaner energy systems, the patterns of global trade are being radically transformed. A new BloombergNEF (BNEF) report projects how energy-related trade flows — from fossil fuels to electric vehicles and batteries — will evolve toward 2050, reshaping economic power, supply chains, and cross-border industrial dynamics.
A Shift in Trade Composition: Clean Tech Soars, Fossil Fuels Decline
The cornerstone of the energy transition’s impact on global trade lies in what is traded — and how much.
In 2024, clean energy technologies accounted for a modest 2.2 % of total global cross-border goods trade, but that share is forecast to grow significantly as electrification, renewables and decarbonisation technologies proliferate.
Electric Vehicles and Batteries Become Trade Powerhouses
Under BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, which assumes continued cost declines in clean technology and market-driven adoption, trade in electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries is projected to more than triple by 2035, from about $234 billion in 2024 to roughly $880 billion. This reflects explosive global demand as nations electrify transport, supported by cheaper manufacturing and growing consumer adoption.
In stark contrast, the value of trade in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles — the backbone of traditional automobile trade — is expected to shrink by nearly 40 % by 2035, as EV adoption displaces fossil-fuel-powered cars.
This shift signals a broader structural change: the global auto trade is migrating from oil-dependent vehicles to clean mobility supply chains.
Fossil Fuel Trade Faces Long-Term Decline
Fossil fuels — particularly crude oil and its derivatives — have long dominated energy-related trade. Under the Economic Transition Scenario, oil and fuel trade is estimated to remain near $3 trillion until 2030 before sliding toward 2050 as energy markets transform.
Even so, fossil fuels are not disappearing overnight — they continue to account for more than half of global energy related trade through mid-century.
However, under BNEF’s Net Zero Scenario, which assumes concerted global action to limit warming, fossil fuel trade could fall below $1 trillion by 2040, a dramatic shift from century-long dominance.
This decline aligns with broader analyses showing renewable deployment outpacing fossil fuels and clean power capacity expanding rapidly worldwide.
Winners and Losers: Country-Level Trade Projection Highlights
A standout insight from the BNEF scenarios is how different regions are likely to perform through 2050:
China Emerges as a Clean Tech Export Superpower
China — already the world’s largest clean energy goods exporter — is projected to lead global clean-technology trade through 2050. Its exports of batteries, EVs and other clean goods could transform its trade balance, turning its $266 billion energy-related trade deficit (in 2024) into a surplus by the late 2030s.
This reflects China’s competitive edge in manufacturing clean tech — from solar modules to battery cells — and its dominance in critical material supply chains. Indeed, Chinese investment in renewables and battery production dwarfs that of many rivals, a trend backed by rising exports to regions such as Asia, Africa and Latin America.
United States Shifts from Exporter to Importer
While the U.S. remains a net importer of the 28 energy products studied (including EVs and batteries), it begins from a smaller deficit thanks to substantial fossil fuel exports.
However, as the world decarbonises and demand for oil and gas plateaus, U.S. fossil fuel exports are projected to decline, while imports of clean tech rise. This keeps the U.S. energy trade balance in negative territory — around $130 billion — through 2050 under the core scenario.
This underscores a fundamental challenge for the U.S.: balancing legacy fossil fuel markets with emerging clean tech trade demands.
European Union Sees Deficit Shrink
The European Union’s energy-related trade deficit is projected to shrink by nearly 30 % by 2035, driven by lower crude oil imports and increased exports of EVs and related clean tech.
Yet Europe must confront fierce competition from Asia, particularly China, as it seeks to maintain a strong foothold in EV and battery exports.
This trend dovetails with ongoing trade dynamics where the EU grapples with dependence on both U.S. fossil fuel imports and Chinese clean tech manufacturing, raising strategic economic and geopolitical questions.
Geopolitical and Economic Ripple Effects
The transformation of energy trade has wide-ranging geopolitical implications:
Clean Tech Creates New Dependencies
Unlike fossil fuel markets, which are historically concentrated in oil-rich regions, clean technology supply chains rely heavily on critical minerals — such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths — as well as advanced manufacturing capacity. Competition for these resources is already reshaping geopolitics and trade policy, with nations vying to secure supply chains and build domestic capabilities.
This shift is prompting emerging tariff debates, where policymakers seek to balance green industrial growth with access to affordable imported clean tech. Higher tariffs could boost local manufacture but risk raising costs and slowing deployment, especially in developing markets.
Emerging Markets and Clean Tech Trade
Emerging economies are rapidly expanding clean tech deployment while contemplating tariffs and local content strategies to grow domestic industries. These moves could reshape trade flows, potentially slowing the pace of global clean tech adoption if barriers rise too high.
Yet, they also present opportunities for these countries to become manufacturing hubs in their own right.
A Rebalanced Global Economy
The shift in trade from fossil fuels to clean tech helps rebalance global economic power — potentially reducing the strategic leverage of traditional oil exporters while elevating nations with strong clean tech industries.
What It Means for Businesses and Policymakers
The rewiring of global trade demands strategic thinking across sectors:
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Companies must adapt supply chains and investment strategies to capture growing exports in EVs, batteries and related clean tech, while managing risks around minerals and manufacturing bottlenecks.
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Governments need to craft trade and industrial policies that support clean-tech competitiveness without undermining affordability or clean energy access.
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Investors should track regions and technologies poised for export growth — from battery manufacturers to EV assemblers and solar equipment producers — for long-term opportunities.
A Trade Transition Fueled by Clean Tech
The landscape of global trade is set for profound change as the world accelerates its energy transition:
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Clean tech trade is rising rapidly, with EV and battery exports poised to become major global revenue streams by 2050.
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Fossil fuel trade is declining in significance, particularly in a net-zero scenario.
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China emerges as a central export leader, while the U.S. and EU adapt to new dynamics.
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Critical minerals and tariffs add complexity to an evolving economic order.
In essence, the energy transition is not just an environmental imperative — it is a geopolitical and economic revolution reshaping the flow of goods, wealth and power across borders.
