The Middle East has long been a critical arena for global powers, and Russia has worked diligently to maintain influence through strategic partnerships, notably with Iran and, until recently, Syria. However, the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, marked by Israel’s Operation Rising Lion on June 13, 2025, has raised questions about Russia’s regional standing. This operation, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leadership, has significantly weakened Tehran, prompting speculation about whether Russia is at risk of losing another key ally in the Middle East. With Syria’s government shifting away from Moscow’s orbit following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, the potential neutralization of Iran could further isolate Russia.
Historical Context: The Russia-Iran Strategic Partnership
Russia and Iran have cultivated a robust partnership over the past few decades, driven by shared interests in countering Western influence and maintaining regional stability. Their cooperation has been particularly evident in Syria, where both nations supported the Assad regime during the civil war, providing military and economic aid. In January 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, emphasizing coordination on security and defense issues (AP News). This agreement, however, is not a military alliance, meaning Russia is not obligated to provide direct military support to Iran in conflicts.
The partnership has also included economic and military collaboration, such as Iran supplying Russia with Shahed drones and ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine (Atlantic Council). In return, Russia has reportedly considered providing Iran with advanced military technology, including Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 missile defense systems, though deliveries have been delayed (Stimson Center). This mutual support has made Iran a cornerstone of Russia’s Middle East strategy, amplifying the stakes of the current conflict.
Operation Rising Lion: A Game-Changer for Iran
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a large-scale military operation targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, military installations, and senior leadership (Wikipedia). The operation involved over 200 Israeli fighter jets, drone swarms, and covert operations, striking key sites like the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility and eliminating high-ranking military officials, including the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami (CNN). The strikes have caused significant damage, with reports indicating over 585 deaths and 1,326 injuries in Iran (Al Jazeera).
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described the operation as a necessary step to counter the “existential threat” posed by Iran’s nuclear program (BBC). Some reports suggest that Israel’s broader aim may include destabilizing the Iranian regime, with Netanyahu hinting at the possibility of regime change (Reuters). While the Israeli military has stated that regime change is not the primary goal, the scale of the attacks and the targeting of key figures have fueled speculation about Iran’s political stability (Politico).
Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel, but its capacity to sustain a prolonged conflict is uncertain given the damage to its military infrastructure (The Guardian). The ongoing conflict, now in its sixth day as of June 18, 2025, has closed airspace across the Middle East and raised global concerns about escalation (AP News).
Russia’s Response and Concerns
Russia has responded to the Israel-Iran conflict with diplomatic condemnation and offers of mediation. The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned Israel’s strikes as “unprovoked” and warned of the risk of a “nuclear disaster” (X post). Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed concern about the escalation without directly blaming Israel, and Russia has advised its citizens to leave both Iran and Israel (Russia Matters). An X post from June 16, 2025, indicates Russia’s readiness to mediate if necessary (X post).
Despite its strategic partnership with Iran, Russia has not provided direct military support in this conflict. Analysts suggest that Russia’s commitments in Ukraine limit its capacity to engage militarily in the Middle East (Carnegie Endowment). Furthermore, the partnership agreement does not obligate military assistance, and Russia maintains ties with Israel, complicating its position (The Moscow Times). Russian officials and commentators have expressed unease about the potential loss of Iran as an ally, with some noting that it could be the second major ally lost in the region within a year, following Syria (The Washington Post).
The Loss of Syria and Its Implications
The ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 marked a significant setback for Russia’s Middle East strategy. Assad, a long-time ally, was offered asylum in Russia after his regime fell, and a transitional government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa was established on March 29, 2025 (Al Jazeera). This government, dominated by members of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist group, includes representatives from various ethnic and religious communities but is less aligned with Russian interests (Wikipedia). The shift suggests a decline in Russia’s influence in Syria, as the new leadership prioritizes domestic reconstruction and international engagement over historical ties with Moscow (The Washington Institute).
The loss of Syria as a reliable ally has already strained Russia’s regional presence, and a similar outcome in Iran would exacerbate this isolation. The Washington Post notes that Russian elites are increasingly aware of the risk of losing Iran, their closest remaining ally in the Middle East (The Washington Post).
Can Russia Find Alternative Allies?
Russia has sought to build relationships with other Middle Eastern countries, but none offer the same strategic depth as Iran or Syria. Below is a table summarizing Russia’s ties with key regional players:
|
Country |
Nature of Relationship |
Likelihood of Strong Alliance |
|---|---|---|
|
Turkey |
Pragmatic cooperation, including in Syria, but strained by Turkey’s NATO membership and regional ambitions (RAND). |
Low: Competing interests and NATO ties limit deep alignment. |
|
Egypt |
Military and economic ties, including arms purchases, but Egypt’s primary alignment is with the U.S. (Carnegie Endowment). |
Moderate: Economic ties exist, but not a strategic partnership. |
|
Saudi Arabia/UAE |
Limited cooperation, primarily economic, with Gulf states wary of Russia’s role and aligned with the West (Carnegie Endowment). |
Low: Strong U.S. ties and regional rivalry with Iran reduce prospects. |
Turkey’s NATO membership and its own regional goals make it an unreliable partner for Russia. Egypt has purchased Russian military equipment, but its strategic alignment with the United States limits its potential as a replacement for Iran. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE prioritize Western partnerships and view Russia’s support for Iran with skepticism. Consequently, Russia faces challenges in finding a new ally to match Iran’s strategic importance.
Economic and Geopolitical Implications
The Israel-Iran conflict has economic implications for Russia, particularly due to rising oil prices following strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure (Reuters). Brent crude futures rose to $76.37 a barrel, providing a potential economic boost for Russia, a major oil exporter (Russia Matters). However, this short-term gain is overshadowed by the long-term risk of losing Iran’s support, which could weaken Russia’s ability to counter Western sanctions and influence regional dynamics.
Geopolitically, Russia has sought to position itself as a mediator, leveraging its ties with both Israel and Iran (X post). However, its limited military capacity, due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the lack of a formal military alliance with Iran restrict its ability to intervene directly (Institute for the Study of War). The conflict also diverts global attention from Ukraine, which some Russian commentators see as an opportunity, but the potential loss of Iran outweighs these benefits (Kyiv Independent).
Israel-Iran conflict
The Israel-Iran conflict, intensified by Operation Rising Lion, poses a significant risk to Russia’s Middle East strategy. Iran’s potential neutralization—whether through military weakening or regime change—could leave Russia with limited allies in the region, following the loss of Syria’s Assad regime. While Russia has condemned Israel’s actions and offered to mediate, its lack of direct military involvement and the absence of strong alternative partners suggest a challenging path ahead. The situation remains dynamic, and Russia’s ability to adapt through diplomacy or new alliances will determine its future influence in the Middle East. For now, the evidence leans toward Russia facing a real risk of losing another key ally, with significant implications for its regional and global standing.
