The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI), Pakistan’s premier think tank, has described the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed with Saudi Arabia on September 17, 2025, as a “landmark” in bilateral security ties. Finalized during Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Riyadh, the pact cements a long-standing partnership with a formal commitment to mutual defence. However, the think tank warns that alongside significant strategic and economic gains, the agreement could spark regional tensions and logistical challenges.
The SMDA, as per Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, seeks to “enhance defence cooperation” and establish “joint deterrence against any aggression,” with a clear stance that “any aggression against either nation will be treated as an attack on both.” ISSI’s think tank analysts view the agreement as a natural extension of decades of military collaboration, including Pakistan’s role in training Saudi forces since the 1960s and the 1982 Protocol Agreement on military deputation and training.
Regional Triggers
The think tank contextualizes the SMDA against recent Middle East unrest, notably the September 9, 2025, Israeli strikes on Doha, which killed five Hamas members and a Qatari security officer. The attack, disrupting Qatar’s mediation efforts, highlighted Gulf vulnerabilities, prompting Saudi Arabia to strengthen ties with Pakistan. “This pact is a response to an unstable region,” ISSI’s think tank stated, noting Saudi Arabia’s aim to diversify security partnerships and Pakistan’s push to expand its Gulf influence.
Strategic and Economic Gains
The think tank outlines several benefits. For Pakistan, the SMDA elevates its role as a key Gulf security player. “Pakistan gains a strategic edge and a seat at the regional security table,” ISSI’s think tank said, adding that the pact could attract Saudi investments in defence, infrastructure, and technology, aligning with Pakistan’s economic goals.
For Saudi Arabia, the agreement taps Pakistan’s proven military expertise. “Years of joint exercises ensure seamless coordination,” the think tank noted, emphasizing that Pakistan’s battle-hardened forces enhance Saudi deterrence against threats like Iran or non-state actors. Regionally, the pact signals a unified front, potentially stabilizing the Gulf by deterring aggression.
Economically, ISSI’s think tank predicts stronger bilateral ties, with increased trade, remittances, and potential joint defence projects. “This aligns with Saudi Vision 2030 and Pakistan’s economic recovery,” the think tank said.
Risks and Challenges
Despite the promise, ISSI’s think tank cautions about risks. The mutual defence clause could strain Pakistan’s ties with India, which may view the pact as a strategic counter. “The agreement shifts regional dynamics, even if India isn’t named,” the think tank observed, noting India’s growing Gulf ties.
Operationally, the think tank flags Pakistan’s stretched military resources. “Domestic and border commitments could limit Pakistan’s ability to meet SMDA obligations,” ISSI’s think tank warned, pointing to the pact’s vague operational details. “Clarity on implementation is still lacking,” it added.
The think tank also highlighted risks of entanglement in Saudi-Iran rivalries. “Pakistan must preserve neutrality to avoid friction with Tehran,” ISSI’s think tank stressed, citing potential impacts on border security. Additionally, growing reliance on Saudi economic aid could curb Pakistan’s strategic autonomy, the think tank cautioned.
A New Security Paradigm
ISSI’s think tank sees the SMDA as both a continuation of historical ties and a response to current realities. “From training Saudi pilots to joint exercises, this pact builds on decades of trust,” the think tank said. Yet, it marks a shift toward formalized Gulf security partnerships, reducing reliance on Western powers.
The think tank underscores that success hinges on clear coordination and sensitivity to regional dynamics. “This is a bold step, but Pakistan and Saudi Arabia must navigate risks carefully,” ISSI’s think tank concluded. The SMDA positions Pakistan as a pivotal Gulf security actor while strengthening Saudi Arabia’s defence framework, but its long-term impact depends on strategic execution and regional diplomacy.
