As French President Emmanuel Macron embarks on his fourth state visit to China from December 3 to 5, 2025, the trip underscores Beijing’s deepening footprint in Europe while spotlighting Paris’s delicate balancing act. Invited by President Xi Jinping, Macron’s itinerary includes stops in Beijing and Chengdu, blending high-level diplomacy with cultural exchanges. This visit arrives at a pivotal moment for EU-China relations, strained by trade imbalances, security concerns, and geopolitical flashpoints like Ukraine and Taiwan. With the EU facing a €305.8 billion trade deficit with China in 2024—fueled by overcapacity in sectors like electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables—Macron’s agenda could either bridge divides or exacerbate them.
A Multifaceted Power Play
China’s influence in the European Union has evolved from economic opportunism to a sophisticated blend of investment, diplomacy, and soft power, reshaping the bloc’s strategic landscape by 2025. Once viewed primarily as a manufacturing hub, Beijing now wields leverage through targeted FDI, technological partnerships, and geopolitical maneuvering, prompting the EU to adopt a “de-risking” strategy that tempers engagement with safeguards.
Economic Dominance and the “China Shock 2.0”
At the core of China’s ascent is its economic clout. In Q1 2025 alone, EU foreign direct investment (FDI) into China hit €3.06 billion—the strongest quarterly figure since 2022—highlighting mutual dependencies despite frictions. Chinese exports, propelled by initiatives like “Made in China 2025,” have flooded European markets with subsidized goods in EVs, solar panels, and steel, eroding local industries. This “second China shock” has accelerated since 2018, with Europe’s manufacturing import ratio from China surging, particularly in Germany, where trade volumes reached €246 billion in 2024. The EU’s response includes anti-dumping probes into Chinese tinplate and construction machinery, alongside tariffs on EVs, signaling a shift from naive integration to protective measures.
Yet, this influence isn’t unidirectional. Beijing’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) accounted for 63% of Chinese FDI in Europe from 2008–2018, targeting strategic assets in ports, tech, and renewables. By 2025, Hungary absorbed 31% of EU-bound Chinese FDI, raising alarms of a “divide and rule” tactic that fragments EU unity. Eastern European nations like Poland and Lithuania, while wary of coercion, grapple with Beijing’s sway via frameworks like the now-defunct 16+1 initiative.
Geopolitical and Security Dimensions
Beyond economics, China’s role in global hotspots amplifies its EU leverage. Beijing’s tacit support for Russia’s Ukraine invasion—supplying 80% of components for Moscow’s weapons—has drawn EU ire, with sanctions targeting Chinese entities in 2025’s fifteenth package. Espionage concerns mount too: In May 2025, Czechia accused China’s APT31 of cyber intrusions during its EU presidency, while undocumented modules in Chinese inverters sparked U.S. and EU grid security warnings.
From another angle, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) extends influence through infrastructure, with Italy’s 2019 MOU as a G7 outlier. Diplomatically, Beijing courts “strategic autonomy” advocates like France, positioning itself as a counterweight to U.S. policies amid transatlantic rifts under a second Trump term. Climate policy offers a cooperative lens: At COP30 in 2025, the EU eyes China’s emissions reductions, though differing motivations—Brussels’ regulatory push versus Beijing’s industrial focus—complicate alignment.
Critically, this multifaceted influence risks EU fragmentation: Western members like France and Germany prioritize markets, while Eastern states decry human rights and coercion. As von der Leyen noted in July 2025, ties are at an “inflection point,” with 117 countries updating laws on digital violence but EU efforts remaining patchwork.
Macron’s Beijing Itinerary: Trade, Tech, and Global Hotspots on the Table
Macron’s visit, reciprocal to Xi’s 2024 France trip marking 60 years of ties, aims to forge a “mutual interests” framework. Accompanied by French CEOs, the agenda blends bilateral boosts with EU-wide recalibration, peaking in closed-door Xi talks on December 4.
- Trade and Investment Rebalancing: Dominating discussions, this addresses the EU’s deficit and China’s overcapacity. Expect pushes for fairer market access, resolving the brandy probe (retaliation for EV tariffs), and advancing high-quality projects in aviation and luxury goods. With France assuming G7 presidency in 2026 and China APEC chair, pacts could stabilize supply chains for rare earths and EVs.
- Technology and Innovation Sharing: Amid EU probes into Chinese subsidies (e.g., BYD plants), talks may explore joint R&D in AI, quantum tech, and green energy. Macron seeks “advanced technologies” sharing, per Élysée sources, to bolster Europe’s edge without full decoupling.
- Ukraine and Regional Security: Macron will urge China to leverage its Moscow influence for peace, echoing EU demands amid Beijing’s component supplies. Taiwan looms large: France reaffirms “one-China” while advocating status quo, amid Xi’s recent U.S. call and Japan tensions.
- Cultural and Multilateral Ties: Events at Chengdu’s Giant Panda Base highlight people-to-people bonds, with multilateralism—UN reforms, multipolarity—underscoring shared G20/UNSC roles.
This could yield a “win-win” blueprint; skeptics see it as France freelancing, potentially diluting EU leverage.
Are France’s China Ties a Boon or Bane for the EU?
France’s robust China engagement—rooted in de Gaulle’s 1964 diplomacy—embodies Europe’s “partner, competitor, rival” triad, but its benefits for the bloc are hotly debated. Proponents argue it advances strategic autonomy, injecting momentum into stalled EU-China dialogue amid U.S. tariffs. Paris’s climate bridge-building and market access advocacy exemplify how bilateral warmth can model reciprocity, countering protectionism. In 2025, France’s push for EU “true strategic autonomy” aligns with calls from Spain and Ireland for independent policies, fostering resilience against transatlantic volatility.
Conversely, critics highlight risks of disunity. Macron’s solo diplomacy—unlike his 2023 tandem with von der Leyen—fuels perceptions of French exceptionalism, weakening collective bargaining on subsidies and coercion. France’s EV tariff support clashed with its brandy dispute, exposing economic vulnerabilities that ripple bloc-wide. Eastern EU states, hit by Chinese sanctions (e.g., Lithuania’s banks in August 2025), view Paris’s overtures warily, fearing diluted resolve on human rights and Russia. Economically, while France gains from Airbus deals, unchecked ties exacerbate the EU’s labor market strains, with Chinese competition slashing demand in autos and chemicals.
Ultimately, France’s relations could be a net positive if harnessed for EU-wide gains—like joint tech norms—but only with safeguards against “divide and rule.” As Wang Yi urged in October 2025, Paris should guide the bloc toward “positive and rational” policies. Without alignment, they risk amplifying Beijing’s wedge-driving.
How Europe Is Framing Macron’s Trip:
European perspectives on Macron’s visit oscillate between pragmatic optimism and guarded skepticism, viewing it as a high-stakes pivot in a multipolar era. Many see it as a vital reconnection amid U.S.-China trade wars, with the Élysée’s “strategic dialogue” ethos praised for testing autonomy against Beijing’s overtures. Coverage highlights potential for innovation co-creation, especially in EVs and rare earths, positioning France as a “bridge-builder” to avert escalation. The cultural panda diplomacy is lauded as a “vibrant hallmark,” softening hardline narratives.
Yet, a cautious undercurrent dominates, framing the trip as a “tightrope” between rivalry and reliance. Analysts warn of Macron’s past “third superpower” rhetoric risking EU cohesion, urging “discipline” to align with von der Leyen’s inflection-point stance. Ukraine hawks emphasize pressing Xi on Russia, decrying Beijing’s “lifeline” to Moscow as a litmus test for ties. Tech anxieties—China’s EV edge and cyber threats—prompt calls for reciprocity over naivety.
In Eastern Europe, views tilt toward vigilance, with cyber fallout and sanctions amplifying fears of undue influence. Overall, the narrative is one of measured hope: a chance to “shape the future” via managed interdependence, but only if Macron avoids freelancing.
Charting a Balanced Path Forward
Macron’s visit encapsulates China’s EU entanglement: opportunity laced with peril. By fostering reciprocity in trade and tech while upholding multilateral norms, it could exemplify “opening the door to compete.” For the EU, the litmus test is unity—leveraging France’s ties without ceding ground. As 2026’s G7 and APEC loom, outcomes here may define whether Europe thrives as a co-creator or a sidelined spectator in a Beijing-Washington duopoly
