In an era of shifting global alliances and escalating trade tensions, France and Germany—Europe’s economic powerhouses—are increasingly advocating for greater autonomy from the United States. This push stems from a combination of historical dependencies, recent geopolitical frictions, and a desire to safeguard the European Union’s (EU) strategic interests. As of January 2026, with US President Donald Trump’s administration threatening tariffs over issues like Greenland, leaders in Berlin and Paris are calling for robust retaliatory measures to counter what they perceive as economic coercion.
Historical Context: From Post-War Alliance to Growing Unease
The transatlantic relationship between Europe and the US has been a cornerstone of global stability since World War II. The Marshall Plan rebuilt Western Europe, while NATO provided security against Soviet threats. For decades, France and Germany benefited from this partnership: access to US markets fueled economic growth, and American military presence ensured defense without excessive European spending.
However, cracks began appearing in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The US’s unilateral actions, such as the 2003 Iraq War, highlighted diverging interests. More recently, the first Trump administration (2017-2021) imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminum, citing national security, which strained trade relations. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities, with Europe reliant on US-dominated global logistics. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine further amplified concerns: Europe’s energy dependence on Russia was replaced by increased reliance on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), raising fears of over-dependence on American suppliers.
By the mid-2020s, discussions of “strategic autonomy” gained traction in EU circles. Reports like Mario Draghi’s 2024 competitiveness review emphasized reducing Europe’s vulnerabilities to external powers, including the US. France, under President Emmanuel Macron, has long championed a more sovereign Europe, while Germany, traditionally more Atlanticist, shifted under Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid fiscal and geopolitical pressures.
Trump’s Tariffs and the Greenland Dispute
The immediate spark for renewed calls for independence came in January 2026, when Trump threatened a 10% tariff increase on European goods if the EU opposed US efforts to control Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory. This followed a US national security strategy labeling Europe as facing “civilisational erasure” and military actions in Venezuela that violated international law, according to German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil.
Klingbeil, also Germany’s Finance Minister, warned that transatlantic ties are “disintegrating” amid a “historic period of upheaval.” He urged the EU to deploy its 2023 Anti-Coercion Instrument—a tool designed to counter economic blackmail by restricting access to EU markets, public tenders, and trade licenses. French President Macron echoed this, labeling the US threats “unacceptable” and pushing for all available EU tools.
Pressure mounted as eight EU countries, including France and Germany, issued a joint statement condemning the tariffs as undermining transatlantic relations and risking a “dangerous downward spiral.” Former EU Commissioners Paolo Gentiloni and Cecilia Malmström backed deployment of the “trade bazooka,” arguing it’s time for Europe to “stand up” against constant tariff threats. This episode underscores how US policies under Trump are accelerating Europe’s quest for independence.
Key Reasons for Seeking Economic Independence
France and Germany’s push is multifaceted, driven by vulnerabilities in trade, technology, energy, defense, and finance. Below, we break down the primary motivations.
Trade Imbalances and Tariff Threats
The US has long used tariffs as leverage, from steel duties in 2018 to the 2025 EU-US deal that tripled duties on European products to 15% while zeroing tariffs on US industrial goods—a move criticized as “humiliating” for Europe. Germany’s export-driven economy, reliant on the US market for automobiles and machinery, suffers disproportionately. In 2025, US tariffs contributed to a “slow-burning drag” on European growth, offset only partially by domestic demand.
France, with its focus on luxury goods and agriculture, faces similar risks. Leaders argue that without independence, Europe remains vulnerable to US “economic blackmail,” as seen in the Greenland spat. The EU’s strategy of appeasement has failed, prompting calls to defend rules-based trade independently.
Technological and Digital Dependence
Europe lags in tech innovation, dominated by US giants like Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon (GAFA). Regulations like the Digital Markets Act aim to curb this, but enforcement is uneven. Germany’s industrial sector, challenged by global competition, seeks autonomy in AI and semiconductors to avoid US export controls impacting supply chains.
France pushes for a “European cloud” to reduce reliance on US data centers, fearing data sovereignty risks amid US surveillance laws.
Energy Security Post-Ukraine
The 2022 Ukraine war exposed Europe’s Russian gas dependence, leading to a pivot to US LNG. By 2026, this has created new vulnerabilities: US suppliers control prices, and geopolitical shifts could disrupt supplies. Germany, after scrapping Nord Stream, invested in renewables but still imports significant US energy. France, with its nuclear focus, advocates diversified sources to achieve true independence.
Defense and Security Reliance
NATO’s US dominance means Europe spends less on defense, but Trump’s demands for 5% GDP spending (up from 2%) strain budgets. Germany aims for “real independence,” potentially requiring a $145 billion annual defense hike without US aid. France proposes a European Defense Union to fill US gaps, especially with Russia threats.
A Bruegel study highlights that without the EU, individual nations lack negotiating power against superpowers.
Financial Autonomy and Dollar Dominance
Europe’s financial system is fragmented, reinforcing dependence on US markets and the dollar. US sanctions can devastate European firms, as seen with Iran deals. Germany and France push for a stronger euro and Eurobond market to attract global investors diversifying from the dollar.
| Aspect | France’s Position | Germany’s Position | US Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade | Advocates retaliation via EU tools | Warns of disintegrating ties; supports anti-coercion | Tariffs threaten exports |
| Tech | Pushes European digital sovereignty | Focuses on industrial tech autonomy | Dominance of US firms |
| Energy | Nuclear independence; diversification | Renewables shift post-Russia | LNG supplier leverage |
| Defense | European Defense Union proponent | Increases spending to meet NATO targets | Demands higher contributions |
| Finance | Supports euro strengthening | Fiscal reforms for autonomy | Dollar hegemony |
France and Germany’s Leadership Roles
As the EU’s largest economies, France and Germany form the “Franco-German engine.” Macron’s vision of a sovereign Europe complements Merz’s fiscal awakening, with Germany’s 2026 stimulus package—the largest since reunification—aiming to counter US pressures. Despite domestic challenges—France’s 5.4% deficit and Germany’s weak recovery—their alignment is crucial. However, political instability, including far-right rises, risks paralysis.
EU Measures and Path Forward
The Anti-Coercion Instrument represents a key step toward independence, potentially barring US firms from EU tenders if deployed. Broader efforts include the Draghi report’s framework for strategic autonomy, focusing on competitiveness and reduced dependencies. Success hinges on unity: without it, Europe risks becoming a “vassal” to US interests.
Implications for Global Economy
Achieving independence could reshape global trade, boosting EU innovation but risking short-term disruptions. For the US, it means losing leverage over a key ally. Long-term, a more autonomous Europe could stabilize multipolar dynamics, countering influences from China and Russia.
A Defining Moment for Europe
France and Germany’s quest for economic independence from the US is not anti-American but a pragmatic response to evolving realities. As Klingbeil stated, “We must defend this order, even without our American partners if necessary.” With tools like the Anti-Coercion Instrument at hand, 2026 could mark Europe’s pivot toward true sovereignty, ensuring resilience in an uncertain world. For businesses and policymakers, monitoring these developments is essential as they redefine transatlantic relations.
