As geopolitical tensions continue to simmer in the Asia-Pacific region, a recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has stirred the international community.
The think tank’s survey, encompassing 87 experts from both the US and Taiwan, suggests that a crisis in the Taiwan Straits is likely in 2024. While some believe the report sheds light on potential challenges, others argue it’s a strategic move by the US to fan the flames of regional tensions.
Experts Assess Possibilities: Blockade or Quarantine?
The CSIS survey indicates that a majority of experts foresee a crisis unfolding in the Taiwan Straits, with a blockade or quarantine imposed by the Chinese mainland deemed the most likely scenario. Analysts from mainland China view this as a recurring tactic by the US, accusing Washington of hyping regional tensions to advance its hegemonic interests.
Concrete Actions Heighten Regional Anxiety
Despite no immediate military tensions post the recent Taiwan regional elections, the US has planned significant moves. A bipartisan congressional delegation is set to visit Taiwan, seemingly encouraging secessionists. Additionally, the presence of US aircraft carriers in the region, as reported by the US Naval Institute, adds to the growing unease. Critics argue that while accusing China of escalating tensions, the US and its allies are the ones taking concrete steps to undermine regional peace.
US Strategy Unveiled: Creating Fear to Strengthen Alliances
Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, suggests that the US requires regional tensions to coerce allies into closer alignment and force countries to take sides. Drawing parallels with the Ukraine crisis in Europe, Li contends that Washington seeks to replicate this strategy in Asia, with the Taiwan Straits as its target.
Taiwan Strait Tensions: A Result of US Interference
The root cause of tensions around the Taiwan Straits, according to Li, is US interference in China’s domestic affairs. Without external meddling, the longstanding Taiwan question, seen by many as a powder keg, could have been resolved decades ago. Li emphasizes that China’s actions, if provoked, are a response to US military activities and political encouragement of Taiwan secessionist authorities.
US Aircraft Carrier Deployments: A Strategic Focus on Asia-Pacific
The recent deployment of the USS Theodore Roosevelt adds to the three US aircraft carriers operating in the Asia-Pacific region. Chinese military expert Song Zhongping views this as a clear indication of the US prioritizing major power competition and its “Indo-Pacific strategy” over conflicts in other regions.
PLA Navy’s Display of Strength: Island Seizing Capability
In response to US-Taiwan collusion, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has organized island blockade exercises, showcasing its precision strike capabilities. Analysts highlight the combination of Type 071 and Type 075 amphibious ships, forming a formidable force with island-seizing capabilities around Taiwan, the Dongsha Islands, and the Penghu Islands.
Peaceful Reunification vs. Preparedness for Action
While the best-case scenario remains peaceful reunification, the PLA asserts its preparedness to fulfill its duty of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Experts emphasize that the PLA’s actions are contingent on the denial of peaceful reunification prospects by “Taiwan independence” secessionists and external interference forces.
In conclusion, the CSIS report has added fuel to the already tense situation in the Taiwan Straits. The dynamics between the US, Taiwan, and mainland China continue to evolve, with each move scrutinized for its potential impact on regional stability. The coming months may provide further clarity on whether the predictions of a crisis in 2024 materialize or if diplomatic efforts can defuse the mounting tensions.
