China is gearing up for a year of heightened uncertainty and challenges in safeguarding its overseas interests as more than 60 countries, including major players like the United States, Russia, and India, head to the polls in 2024.
In a recent report by Renmin University’s China Overseas Security Research Institute (COSRI), the analysis sheds light on the potential geopolitical shifts that could impact China’s relationships with 193 countries.
The Changing Global Landscape: A New Phase in the Geopolitical Game
The report anticipates a new phase in the geopolitical landscape, particularly with elections in key nations like the United States, Russia, and India. As these nations undergo potential leadership changes, the dynamics of international relations are expected to evolve significantly.
Identified Risks: Assessing Overseas Security Challenges
COSRI has identified 29 countries, including the US, India, Ukraine, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe, as “extremely high” overseas security risks for China. An additional 63 nations, such as Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Myanmar, fall under the “high” risk category. The report classifies the risk as “moderate” in countries like Thailand, France, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and 70 others, while Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand, and 24 more nations are considered “low” risk.
Factors Influencing Risk Assessment
Qi Kai, secretary general of COSRI, highlighted that risk assessments were based on bilateral ties with both China and the US, election forecasts, and participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Elections in the US were specifically pointed out as “extremely high” risk due to their potential impact on China’s global investments and trade.
US-China Relations: Navigating the Election Uncertainty
The report emphasizes the significant impact the US presidential election in November could have on regional and global dynamics. While a brief détente was experienced in 2023 following a summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, the report predicts increased uncertainty in US-China relations post the 2024 elections. The stance of the newly elected president, whether Biden or Trump, is anticipated to influence China’s trade and investment landscape.
Middle East Instability: Potential Risks to Chinese Investment
The researchers express concerns about the Israel-Gaza conflict spilling over and causing chaos in neighboring countries, which could jeopardize Chinese investments. Possible US sanctions on Iran or Syria could further complicate the situation, emphasizing the need for strategic planning in the region.
European Union Elections: Shaping the Political Direction
With European Parliament elections in June, the report suggests that Chinese companies in Europe should intensify efforts to explore local markets to counteract pressures from the US. The outcome of these elections is expected to shape the European Union’s political direction for the next five years.
African Elections: Heightened Political Risks
Political instability in Africa poses challenges for foreign investors, with 15 countries holding elections in the coming year. The report underscores the increased political risks in African nations where long-ruling single-party systems are facing potential transitions, impacting China’s significant role in the continent.
Conclusion:
As China navigates through the uncertainties of 2024, strategic assessments and proactive measures are imperative to safeguard its overseas interests. The geopolitical landscape is poised for transformation, and staying ahead of potential challenges will be key for China’s continued global influence and stability.
