The fear that has long simmered across the Middle East — that Israel’s territorial ambitions could extend beyond the West Bank — has taken a dramatic new turn. According to a fresh developments in the West Bank have alarmed policymakers in Jordan, sparking warnings that the kingdom could be the “next” target of territorial and demographic transformation.
West Bank Changes: From Occupation to “De Facto Annexation”
On 15 February 2026, the Israeli cabinet approved new measures to register vast swaths of the West Bank as state land under its civil authority — a shift that effectively bypasses the long-standing military administration dating back to 1967. This move, championed by far-right leaders as a “settlement revolution,” treats the occupied territory as sovereign soil and facilitates settlement expansion.
Jordanian leaders view these changes not merely as symbolic law-making but as laying the groundwork for a “silent transfer” of Palestinian populations — a method of forced displacement that could make life in the West Bank unlivable and drive refugees toward Jordan’s borders.
Why Jordan Fears Being “Next”
Geographic and Demographic Proximity
Jordan shares a long border with the West Bank and hosts a significant Palestinian population — historically and socially intertwined with communities across the River Jordan. The prospect of mass displacement or formal annexation fuels fears of demographic upheaval that could impact Jordan’s internal stability.
Former Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister Mamdouh al-Abbadi warned that the shift to treating West Bank lands as Israeli state property is an operational signal that the “status quo is dead,” and that a forced transfer of populations may already be underway.
“Soft Transfer” as a Strategic Threat
Unlike outright military invasion, the concept of “silent transfer” — incremental legal and administrative measures that erode Palestinian rights and protections — is seen as a more insidious form of displacement. By erasing century-old Ottoman and Jordanian land registries, critics argue Israel is clearing the legal path for settlers to acquire land, undermining Palestinian property security.
Jordan fears that this bureaucratic strategy could lead to a gradual exodus, creating pressures on its economy, society, and political coherence — making the kingdom vulnerable to unprecedented social strains.
Diplomatic Strains and the US Factor
For decades, Jordan’s security has rested partly on its close alignment with the United States and its peace treaty with Israel. However, analysts argue that Washington’s commitment has faltered, with US regional priorities shifting toward Gulf alliances. Former Jordanian strategist Oraib al-Rantawi has claimed that Jordan’s reliance on the US for protection now places it “between two fires” — dependent on Western aid while facing an existential Israeli threat.
With the return of former US administration policies favoring settlement expansion and a diminishing emphasis on Palestinian statehood, Jordan’s confidence in Western guarantees is wavering.
Security Calculus: Preparing for the Worst
Jordanian military analysts have begun discussing defensive options to counter perceived threats from Israel’s actions. One suggestion is to designate the Jordan Valley — a strategic geographic buffer — as a closed military zone to prevent population transfers and defend against forced displacement.
The resumption of compulsory military service and calls for universal conscription reflect a broader shift in Amman toward mobilization and national defense preparedness. These developments mark a departure from Jordan’s previous emphasis on diplomatic and economic strategies to preserve stability.
Diplomatic Fallout and Regional Reactions
Jordan’s government has publicly condemned Israeli measures in the West Bank as illegal under international law, asserting that these actions violate fundamental rights and undermine peace efforts. This condemnation aligns with broader regional and international concerns about unilateral annexation and settlement expansion.
Additionally, Arab and Islamic countries have urged collective action to counter Israel’s policies, calling on the international community to uphold legal norms and prevent forced displacement.
Legal and Moral Dimensions
The push to register West Bank land under Israeli state jurisdiction raises critical questions about international law and the future of the two-state solution. Jordan’s foreign ministry has explicitly declared such unilateral changes as violations of legal norms, emphasizing that Israel has no sovereignty over occupied Palestinian territories.
If allowed to proceed, these measures could deeply erode frameworks designed to protect Palestinian rights, complicating diplomatic avenues for peace and jeopardizing the sustainability of long-standing treaties.
A Region at a Crossroads
The “Jordan is next” narrative is more than a critique — it reflects profound regional anxieties about borders, identities, and the future of the Israel-Palestine conflict. What began as legal and administrative changes in the West Bank has triggered alarm in Amman and across the Arab world about potential demographic shifts, security dilemmas, and the erosion of international norms.
As Jordan recalibrates its security, diplomatic, and military strategies, the region stands at a critical juncture. The world’s response to these developments — whether through diplomatic pressure, legal interventions, or renewed peace efforts — will significantly shape the Middle East’s future trajectory.
In a landscape already defined by conflict, the question rings louder than ever: Is Jordan truly “next,” and if so, what will that mean for peace and stability across the region?
