In the heart of the Himalayas, Bhutan, sandwiched between regional giants India and China, is preparing for parliamentary elections on January 9.
As the nation gears up for this significant event, both China and India are closely monitoring the proceedings, eyeing strategic contested border zones that could impact their regional influence.
Background and Geopolitical Dynamics:
The recent “cooperation agreement” between Bhutan and China in October has raised eyebrows in India, which has historically considered Bhutan a buffer state firmly within its sphere of influence. Bhutan holds a crucial position in China’s South Asian influence strategy, making it a focal point for both Beijing and New Delhi.
India’s Concerns:
India, determined to prevent China from expanding its influence in what it perceives as its natural sphere, is closely watching developments. India has been Bhutan’s main overseer in foreign policy until 2007, exchanging free-trade and security arrangements for its role. The recent cooperation agreement and potential border changes pose challenges to India’s strategic interests.
China’s Strategy:
China, without formal diplomatic relations with Bhutan, aims to break India’s influence and establish diplomatic ties with Thimphu. An unsanctioned settlement construction program in Bhutan’s northern frontier region, as indicated by satellite images, underscores China’s intentions. A potential border deal outcome could lead to a permanent Chinese presence, with far-reaching implications for India’s regional standing.
Strategic Implications:
The contested Doklam plateau, a source of tension between China and India, remains a significant concern. Any potential border agreement between Bhutan and China might shift attention to other disputed territories, heightening tensions in the region. India’s worry is that China’s gains in Bhutan could marginalize India in its immediate neighborhood, impacting its geopolitical influence.
Domestic Concerns vs. Geopolitical Realities:
While domestic concerns, such as unemployment and migration, dominate Bhutanese voters’ priorities, geopolitical developments may have lasting repercussions. Bhutan’s strategic and economic ties with India, its major trading partner and source of foreign aid, play a crucial role. The outcome of the election will shape Bhutan’s stance on its borders and foreign relations, influencing the delicate balance in the region.
The Election’s Impact on Bhutan’s Relations:
The two contenders for Bhutan’s prime ministership express eagerness to strengthen ties with India. India, a significant investor and infrastructure provider, is vital to Bhutan’s economic stability. As Bhutan explores economic growth, its willingness to attract funds from China could signal shifts in regional alliances. India’s ongoing connectivity projects and Bhutan’s emphasis on diplomatic ties will be critical factors in shaping the geopolitical landscape.
Conclusion:
Bhutan’s election serves as a microcosm of the complex geopolitical chessboard involving India and China. As both nations vie for influence in this strategically positioned kingdom, the election outcome will reverberate beyond Bhutan’s borders, impacting regional power dynamics. The delicate balance between domestic concerns and geopolitical realities will shape Bhutan’s trajectory, influencing the broader geopolitical landscape in South Asia.
