As the Russia-Ukraine conflict approaches its third anniversary, the international community is intensifying efforts to negotiate a resolution. Recent high-level talks between U.S. and Russian officials in Riyadh signal a potential shift in the war’s trajectory.
Current State of the Conflict
The war, which began in February 2022, has resulted in significant territorial disputes and humanitarian crises. As of February 18, 2025, Russian forces have intensified attacks in eastern Ukraine, particularly targeting logistics hubs like Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces continue to defend their positions, with recent reports indicating the destruction of numerous Russian drones during overnight assaults
Recent Diplomatic Developments
In a notable development, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commenced negotiations in Riyadh to discuss potential pathways to peace. This marks the first high-level engagement since early negotiations collapsed nearly three years ago. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to halt hostilities. However, concerns persist that any agreement might disproportionately favor Russian interests. Notably, Ukraine has been excluded from these talks, leading to criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who asserts that any decisions made without Ukraine’s involvement lack legitimacy
Potential Future Scenarios
The trajectory of the Ukraine conflict remains uncertain, with several possible outcomes:
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Compromised Peace Agreement: Negotiations could lead to a settlement where Ukraine agrees to constitutional neutrality, renounces NATO aspirations, and cedes certain territories to Russia. This scenario might stabilize immediate tensions but could undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and long-term security
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Prolonged Stalemate: The conflict could devolve into a protracted war of attrition, with neither side achieving decisive gains. This scenario would likely result in sustained military engagements, economic strain, and ongoing humanitarian crises
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Ukrainian Victory: With increased Western support, Ukraine might successfully repel Russian forces, reclaim occupied territories, and restore its pre-2022 borders. This outcome would bolster Ukraine’s sovereignty but risks escalating tensions with Russia
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Russian Dominance: Conversely, a reduction in Western aid could enable Russia to overpower Ukrainian defenses, leading to further territorial gains and potential regime change in Kyiv. This scenario would significantly alter the regional balance of power and could embolden Russian expansionist policies
Implications for Ukraine and Global Politics
The exclusion of Ukraine from the recent Riyadh talks has sparked concern among Ukrainians, who fear that peace may be achieved at the expense of their national interests. Many citizens, weary from years of conflict, are apprehensive that any settlement reached without their input could lead to unfavorable terms and potential future instability
On the global stage, Russian President Putin appears to be leveraging the situation to rehabilitate Russia’s international standing. By engaging in negotiations and securing the release of high-profile detainees, Putin aims to project an image of a cooperative leader, despite ongoing aggressive actions in Ukraine. This strategy seeks to exploit perceived weaknesses in Western unity and capitalize on growing support from nations in Africa and Asia
Conclusion
The future of the Ukraine war is at a critical juncture, with diplomatic efforts intensifying and multiple potential outcomes on the horizon. The international community’s approach in the coming months will be pivotal in determining whether the conflict moves toward a peaceful resolution or escalates further. Ensuring that Ukraine’s sovereignty and the will of its people are respected remains essential for any lasting peace.
References
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“Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events – day 1090,” Al Jazeera, February 18, 2025.
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“US and Russia start talks on ending war in Ukraine,” Financial Times, February 18, 2025.
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“How could the Ukraine war end? Three possible scenarios explored,” The Times, February 17, 2025.
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“Four scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine,” Chatham House, October 2024.
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“Many weary Ukrainians long for an end to the war but now fear it will come on unfavorable terms,” Associated Press, February 18, 2025.
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“Putin’s no longer a pariah – and his ambitions lie beyond Ukraine,” The Times, February 18, 2025.
