Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Indonesia and attendance at the inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit in Kuala Lumpur signal China’s ambition to forge a new cooperative bloc with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). This initiative comes at a time of global economic uncertainty, exacerbated by US tariffs and geopolitical shifts.
Economic Expansion and Trade Diversification
China seeks to deepen economic ties with ASEAN and GCC, leveraging their complementary strengths. ASEAN, with a population of 677 million and a combined GDP of $3.8 trillion in 2023 (Council on Foreign Relations), is a vital production hub and emerging market. GCC countries, with their vast oil and gas reserves, are critical for China’s energy needs. In 2024, China-ASEAN trade reached nearly $1 trillion, up from $8 billion in 1991, while China-GCC trade exceeded $288 billion (Global Times). The completion of negotiations for the Version 3.0 China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2024 marks a milestone, promising further trade growth (Xinhua).
Geopolitical Influence and Countering US Policies
The rise of US protectionism, particularly under President Trump’s administration, has created opportunities for China. In April 2025, the US imposed high tariffs on ASEAN nations, including 49% on Cambodia, 48% on Laos, and 46% on Vietnam (TIME). These measures have strained US-ASEAN relations, potentially pushing these countries toward China. By fostering a trilateral bloc, China aims to counterbalance US influence and promote a multipolar world order, aligning with its Global South leadership narrative (Modern Diplomacy).
Energy Security
As one of the world’s largest oil importers, China relies heavily on GCC countries, which supplied significant crude oil in 2021, with Saudi Arabia as a top provider (Arab News). Strengthening ties ensures a stable energy supply, critical for China’s economic growth. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) facilitates energy infrastructure projects, enhancing connectivity and trade routes (Middle East Institute).
Technological and Industrial Collaboration
China is eager to collaborate in high-tech sectors like artificial intelligence, digital economy, and renewable energy. Premier Li Qiang emphasized these areas during his Indonesia visit, highlighting opportunities for market connectivity and industrial integration (Global Times). This aligns with China’s goal to export its technological standards and secure partnerships in emerging industries (World Economic Forum).
|
Motive |
Details |
|---|---|
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Economic Expansion |
Trade with ASEAN ($1T in 2024) and GCC ($288B in 2024) drives growth. |
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Geopolitical Influence |
Counters US tariffs and influence in Southeast Asia and Middle East. |
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Energy Security |
Secures oil and gas from GCC for China’s energy needs. |
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Technological Collaboration |
Promotes AI, digital economy, and renewable energy partnerships. |
Benefits for China
Market Access and Economic Growth
The bloc enhances China’s access to ASEAN’s consumer markets and GCC’s energy resources, boosting trade and investment. The BRI supports infrastructure projects, often funded by Chinese loans and built by Chinese firms, creating economic opportunities (Xinhua).
Strategic Partnerships
By aligning with ASEAN and GCC, China strengthens its geopolitical position, particularly as US policies alienate some partners. The trilateral framework could integrate with BRICS and SCO, amplifying China’s global influence (Global Times).
Resilience Against Global Uncertainties
The bloc mitigates risks from US tariffs and protectionism, fostering a stable trade environment. Experts suggest this “1+1+1>3” synergy creates a resilient economic network (Global Times).
ASEAN and GCC Reception
ASEAN’s Perspective
ASEAN countries see significant benefits in deeper ties with China. Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto, during Li Qiang’s visit, invited Chinese investment in technology and infrastructure, praising China’s support for developing nations (Global Times). The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area’s progress signals strong economic alignment. However, challenges include:
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Over-dependence: A surge in Chinese goods has harmed local industries, with Indonesia’s textile sector losing 80,000 jobs in 2024 (Asia Society).
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South China Sea Tensions: Disputes with countries like the Philippines and Vietnam persist, though progress on a Code of Conduct suggests efforts to manage conflicts (Global Times).
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Debt Concerns: BRI projects raise fears of debt traps, particularly in less developed ASEAN nations.
Despite these, ASEAN’s enthusiasm is evident, with leaders supporting the trilateral summit’s goals (Xinhua).
GCC’s Perspective
GCC countries view China as a key partner for economic diversification and energy exports. Trade reached $288 billion in 2024, with growth in non-oil sectors like renewable energy and tourism (World Economic Forum). Benefits include:
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Economic Diversification: Chinese investment supports non-oil industries, aligning with GCC’s economic transformation goals (Arab News).
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Stable Demand: China’s market ensures consistent oil and gas demand.
However, GCC nations face challenges:
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US Security Ties: The US remains a critical security partner, requiring careful balancing (Middle East Council).
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Geopolitical Risks: Aligning closely with China could strain relations with Western allies.
GCC’s engagement with the summit suggests openness to deeper cooperation (Modern Diplomacy).
|
Region |
Benefits |
Concerns |
|---|---|---|
|
ASEAN |
Investment, market access, technology |
Over-dependence, South China Sea, debt |
|
GCC |
Economic diversification, energy demand |
US security ties, geopolitical risks |
China’s Long-term Strategic Planning
Building a Global South-led Economic Bloc
China aims to create a new economic framework that rivals Western-dominated systems. The ASEAN-GCC-China Summit is described as a “Golden Triangle” of resources, manufacturing, and consumers, enhancing global economic resilience (Xinhua). This aligns with China’s broader initiatives like BRICS and SCO, with several ASEAN and GCC members joining or approaching these groups.
Promoting Multilateralism
Amid US protectionism, China champions multilateral trade and cooperation. The trilateral bloc could safeguard the multilateral trading system, amplifying the Global South’s voice (Global Times).
Enhancing Global Influence
Through the BRI and trilateral cooperation, China seeks to expand its soft power and leadership. Infrastructure projects and technological partnerships position China as a model for development (World Economic Forum).
Securing Strategic Interests
Long-term, China aims to secure resources, markets, and strategic sea lanes, particularly in the Middle East, where GCC’s maritime routes are critical for the BRI (Middle East Institute).
Fresh Data and Developments
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Trade Volumes (2024):
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China-ASEAN: Nearly $1 trillion (Xinhua).
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China-GCC: Over $288 billion (Global Times).
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Recent Agreements:
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Version 3.0 China-ASEAN Free Trade Area completed in 2024.
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MoUs signed during Li Qiang’s Indonesia visit in May 2025, covering tourism, agriculture, and technology (Global Times).
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US Tariffs Impact:
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April 2025 tariffs on ASEAN countries (e.g., 49% on Cambodia) may shift regional alignments toward China (TIME).
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ASEAN-GCC-China Summit:
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Held in Kuala Lumpur, May 2025, emphasizing economic and strategic synergy (Modern Diplomacy).
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China’s pursuit of a trilateral bloc?
China’s pursuit of a trilateral bloc with ASEAN and GCC is driven by economic, geopolitical, and strategic motives. By leveraging ASEAN’s markets and GCC’s resources, China aims to bolster its economy, counter US influence, and promote multilateralism. While ASEAN and GCC welcome the economic benefits, they face challenges like over-dependence and geopolitical balancing. Long-term, China’s vision of a Global South-led bloc could reshape global trade and governance, though its success depends on navigating regional concerns and global dynamics.
