In 2025, Afghanistan is grappling with a humanitarian catastrophe dubbed a “crisis within a crisis” by UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency. As over 2.6 million Afghans are forcibly returned from neighboring countries like Pakistan, a devastating earthquake has shattered communities in the same regions where returnees arrive, compounding an already dire situation marked by poverty, drought, and conflict. With UNHCR’s operations hampered by Taliban restrictions on female staff and funding shortages threatening life-saving aid, the world faces a moral and logistical challenge.
Forced Returns and Earthquake Devastation
Afghanistan’s eastern provinces, particularly Nangarhar, are reeling from a 6+ magnitude earthquake that struck on August 31, 2025, killing at least 800, injuring 3,000, and destroying entire villages. Survivors, many sleeping outdoors amid collapsed mud homes, face a grim reality in remote areas where blocked roads hinder aid delivery. UNHCR reports that 24% of returnees from Pakistan—over 337,000 via the Torkham border near the epicenter—have settled in these hard-hit zones, only to lose their homes again.
Since January 2025, 2.6 million Afghans have returned from neighboring countries, with 554,000 expelled from Pakistan under its “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan” since April. August alone saw 143,000 returns, and the first week of September recorded nearly 100,000 crossings, overwhelming Afghanistan’s fragile infrastructure. Many returnees, some born in exile and others absent for decades, arrive in a nation where 23.7 million people—over half the population—require humanitarian aid due to chronic poverty, drought, and 40 years of conflict.
On X, voices like @RefugeeWatch underscore the desperation, with posts highlighting families “returned to rubble” in Nangarhar, facing hunger and homelessness. UNHCR’s Filippo Grandi called this a “third-generation crisis,” with Afghan children born in exile now thrust into a homeland on the brink. The UN’s 2025 appeal notes 14.8 million Afghans face acute food insecurity, with 7.8 million children and women needing nutrition aid, worsened by La Niña-driven floods looming in 2025.
Pakistan’s Repatriation Plan:
Pakistan’s resumption of its “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan” in March 2025 has driven the mass expulsion of Afghans, including 1.6 million registered refugees and undocumented individuals. Initially targeting Afghan Citizenship Card holders, the policy expanded to Proof of Registration cardholders by July, mandating voluntary departure or facing deportation. UNHCR reports that since September 2023, over 3 million Afghans have returned from Pakistan and Iran, many under coercion, straining Afghanistan’s resources.
Pakistan, hosting 1.75 million Afghan refugees alongside its own economic woes, justifies the plan as a security and economic necessity. However, UNHCR and human rights groups, per Reuters, criticize it as a violation of non-refoulement, the international principle barring forced returns to unsafe conditions. Many returnees face heightened risks—women and girls, in particular, confront Taliban-imposed restrictions on education and work, with 2025 UN data noting severe gender-based disparities.
On X, @HumanRightsNow demands Pakistan halt deportations, citing Afghanistan’s inability to absorb returnees amid earthquake recovery. UNHCR urges Pakistan to extend legal protections for vulnerable groups and develop regulated migration pathways, but Islamabad’s policy persists, with no clear mechanism to identify those needing protection. This contrasts with Pakistan’s decades-long hospitality toward Afghans, now eroded by domestic pressures.
Taliban Restrictions:
A critical barrier to aid is the Taliban’s recent ban on national female UN staff entering UN compounds, forcing UNHCR to suspend operations at cash and support centers across Afghanistan in September 2025. UNHCR’s Babar Baloch emphasized, “It is not possible to serve women without female staff,” as women and girls—half of the 23.7 million in need—require tailored aid like hygiene kits and psychosocial support. This restriction, affecting all UN agencies, has paralyzed efforts to assist returnees and earthquake survivors, with OCHA reporting a “shrinking protection space” for women under Taliban rule.
The suspension exacerbates an already strained response. UNHCR has distributed thousands of tents, blankets, and relief items in Nangarhar and Kunar, but blocked roads and zero connectivity in remote areas hinder outreach. The UN’s Indrika Ratwatte warned that the earthquake’s toll—potentially impacting “hundreds of thousands”—could rise without swift intervention. On X, @AidWorkerVoice decried the Taliban’s “inhumane” restrictions, noting that female staff are essential for assessing women’s needs in conservative regions.
UNHCR’s $258.6 Million Plea
UNHCR’s response is on the brink of collapse due to funding shortages. The agency’s 2025 regional appeal for Afghan returnees, updated in September, seeks $258.6 million to provide cash assistance, shelter, and protection services. The broader UN humanitarian plan for Afghanistan, targeting 16.8 million people, requires $2.42 billion but is only 28% funded as of September 2025. Without new donations, UNHCR warns it cannot sustain life-saving aid, leaving families like Ezatullah’s—a 45-year-old returnee from Pakistan whose home was destroyed in the earthquake—without support.
The funding crisis reflects global donor fatigue. The World Bank’s 2025 report notes Afghanistan’s economic collapse, with 70% of households unable to meet basic needs. UNHCR’s earlier $71 million appeal for returnees and a $14.4 million earthquake appeal in 2023 highlight chronic underfunding. On X, @GlobalAidNow calls for urgent contributions, warning that “millions face starvation” without action. UNHCR’s efforts—legal counseling, cash grants, and livelihoods programs—aim for sustainable reintegration, but without funds, these are at risk.
Global Responsibility:
The crisis demands a global response. UNHCR urges countries to ensure voluntary, safe, and dignified returns, respecting non-refoulement. Pakistan’s policy, while driven by domestic pressures, risks destabilizing the region, with Afghanistan’s 3.5 million internally displaced and 2.6 million refugees in Iran and Pakistan already stretching resources. The 2025 Refugee Response Plan emphasizes resilience-building, including health care and education access in host countries, but requires $258.6 million to scale up.
The earthquake’s timing—hitting returnee-heavy areas—underscores the need for coordinated aid. UNHCR’s distribution of 19,436 blankets, 11,123 tarpaulins, and 1,921 tents since October 2023 shows commitment, but stocks are “stretched thin.” The UN’s Tom Fletcher, per OCHA, warns of systemic collapse without increased funding. On X, @RefugeeAdvocate calls for resettlement pathways, noting that 500,000 Afghan refugees need third-country solutions in 2025.
Averting a Humanitarian Catastrophe
Afghanistan’s 2025 crisis—fueled by forced returns, a devastating earthquake, Taliban restrictions, and funding shortages—demands urgent global action. Pakistan’s repatriation plan, while addressing domestic concerns, violates humanitarian principles, pushing millions into a collapsing nation. UNHCR’s $258.6 million appeal is a lifeline for 23.7 million Afghans, but donor inaction risks lives. The world must prioritize funding, lift Taliban restrictions, and ensure safe migration pathways to avert a catastrophe. As Filippo Grandi stated, “We’re seeing a third generation of Afghan children born in exile.” Without intervention, their future—and Afghanistan’s—hangs in the balance.
