President Donald Trump’s second term faces mounting headwinds that could redefine his political legacy. Fresh polls paint a grim picture of his economic stewardship, with approval ratings on core issues like inflation and tariffs plunging to historic lows. At the same time, a surge of unified anti-Trump activism—epitomized by the sprawling “No Kings” protests—signals deepening divisions. And lurking in the background? Persistent whispers of a “Deep State” bent on undermining him, a narrative that’s both rallying cry and potential Achilles’ heel.
Economic Policies Fueling Political Erosion?
Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, rolled out early in his second term, was sold as a shield for American workers—a way to claw back jobs and revenue from unfair trade. Yet, nine months in, the verdict from voters and economists alike is turning sour, with implications that could hobble his agenda ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Recent surveys underscore the slide: A CNBC All-America Economic Survey from October 8-12 pegs Trump’s overall economic approval at just 42%, with 55% disapproving—a net -13, the lowest in either of his terms. On inflation and living costs specifically, approval craters to 34%, against 62% disapproval. Tariffs fare even worse: Only 41% approve, while 56% disapprove, a net -15 shift from prior quarters. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin aggregates this to a broader -7.8 net approval, with economic handling at -14.4—firmly underwater and a far cry from first-term highs.
The mechanics? Trump’s tariffs—now averaging 17% on imports, up from 2% pre-2025—project to boost federal revenues by $174.9 billion this year (0.57% of GDP). But the blowback is brutal: Penn Wharton models forecast a 6-8% long-run GDP hit, 5-7% wage drop, and $22,000-$58,000 lifetime loss per middle-income household. Retaliation from partners like Canada and China has shaved another 0.2% off GDP, while businesses delay investments amid uncertainty. Inflation lingers at 2.9%, unemployment at 4.3%, but 75% of Americans feel prices soaring, souring outlooks on jobs and growth.
Politically, this stings: Even Republican support for tariffs has dipped to 55%, per CNBC. With GDP potentially slowing to 1.4% in 2026 and recession odds rising, Trump’s “America First” gambit risks alienating the working-class base that propelled him back to power. As one economist notes, it’s a “turbulence tax” hitting wallets hardest. If economic woes dominate headlines, his 44% overall approval (52% disapproval) could erode further, per aggregated polls.
Why Anti-Trump Forces Are Locking Arms Now
October 18, 2025, marked a watershed: Over 2,700 “No Kings” rallies erupted across all 50 states and abroad, drawing millions in what organizers hail as the largest single-day U.S. civil action since Earth Day 1970. From Times Square chants of “Trump must go” to Paris expats in Statue of Liberty garb decrying family separations, the message was unified: Reject authoritarian overreach. This third mass mobilization of the year—after spring cuts protests and June’s military parade backlash—signals a opposition renaissance. But what’s sparking this sudden solidarity among fractious groups?
At its core, it’s alarm over Trump’s “executive excesses”: A grinding government shutdown pitting him against Congress and courts; militarized immigration raids via ICE that have “torn families apart”; and perceived assaults on free speech, healthcare, and voting rights. The No Kings coalition—spanning Indivisible, MoveOn, NAACP, and 200+ partners—frames it as a slide toward monarchy, with signs blasting “No Kings, No Oligarchs, No Fascism.” Bernie Sanders slammed billionaire enablers like Elon Musk from D.C. stages, while veterans decried fighting for a “dictator.”
The unity stems from shared existential threats: Trump’s Project 2025 blueprint for bureaucratic overhaul, deportations ramping up, and federal program slashes amid the shutdown. Progressives, independents, and even some moderates see it as a “final battle” against fascism, per organizers. Overseas echoes—from Berlin’s embassy vigils to Helsinki’s warnings of U.S. isolation—amplify the global stakes, with expats fearing travel bans and eroded alliances. Republicans counter by dubbing it “Hate America” rallies, blaming Dems for shutdown prolongation. Yet, with turnout eclipsing June’s events, this isn’t fleeting rage—it’s a calculated power play to erode Trump’s “mandate” myth and build momentum for 2026.
Do Hidden Hands Crave Trump’s Downfall?
Trump’s “Deep State” refrain—invoked 56 times on his platform alone—posits a cabal of bureaucrats, intel operatives, and elites sabotaging his vision. Rooted in Turkish anti-democratic lore but turbocharged during his first term, it’s now a MAGA cornerstone, tying into QAnon fantasies of global cabals. Allies like Russell Vought, Project 2025 architect and OMB head, wield it to justify firing 50,000 feds and gutting agencies—framing career civil servants as “cultural Marxist” foes.
But does this phantom network actively plot Trump’s unpopularity? Proponents say yes: Leaks, probes into Epstein files or his July assassination attempt, and FBI holdouts like dismissed theories on Epstein’s “murder” or Butler “inside job” fuel claims of resistance. Influencers like Laura Loomer demand scalps, accusing deputies like Dan Bongino of deep-state complicity.
Skeptics counter it’s a deflection: No evidence of a monolithic conspiracy exists; it’s a bogeyman to excuse policy flops and justify power grabs, per experts like Joseph Uscinski. Federal workers prioritize stability, not sabotage—Trump’s own chaos, from shutdowns to tariffs, drives the backlash. Even his base grows restless, with conspiracy circles turning on him for not “exposing” the cabal. In truth, if a “Deep State” exists, it’s less a schemer than a resilient bureaucracy clashing with Trump’s unitary executive push—a tension baked into America’s founding, per scholars.
Trump’s 2025 Reckoning
Trump’s tariffs promise protection but deliver pain, dragging approvals and risking a voter revolt. “No Kings” unity exposes a fractured opposition hardening into a force, born of fears over rights and democracy. And the Deep State? More mirror than monster, reflecting governance rifts Trump exploits yet can’t fully conquer. As midterms loom, these currents could capsize his term—or galvanize a comeback. What’s your read on Trump’s trajectory? Sound off in the comments.
