The European Commission has proposed a powerful new 20th package of sanctions against Russia aimed at dramatically curtailing Moscow’s oil revenue — a key source of funding for its war in Ukraine. This raises a critical question: Could these new EU measures also affect India’s massive purchases of discounted Russian crude — sometimes referred to in global trade circles as part of the “Mother of All Deals?”
European Union Ramps Up Sanctions Against Russian Energy
On 6 February 2026, the European Commission unveiled its newest sanctions package — the 20th since the war in Ukraine began — explicitly designed to weaken Russia’s energy revenues and disrupt its ability to sell oil globally. This latest proposal aims to ban maritime services tied to Russian crude oil exports, tighten existing financial and trade restrictions, and broaden the scope of energy sector pressure on Moscow.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the move would “slash further Russia’s energy revenues and make it more difficult to find buyers for its oil,” highlighting that these measures are coordinated with like-minded international partners, including G7 states.
Key Features of the 20th Sanctions Package
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Full maritime services ban for Russian crude oil exports (affecting shipping, insurance, and related support services).
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Expansion of asset freezes and travel bans to a new list of entities and individuals tied to Russia’s oil and financial sectors.
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Measures targeting banks and service providers that support Russia’s energy trade.
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Plans to expand restrictions on LNG and refined petroleum products.
These sanctions are part of the EU’s broader long-term strategy to phase out Russian fossil fuel dependency — a process already underway through mechanisms like the REPowerEU roadmap, which aims to eliminate Russian gas and oil imports over time.
India’s “Mother of All Deals” and Russian Oil Imports
India has emerged as one of the largest buyers of Russian crude oil since the Ukraine war began. Between 2022 and early 2026, India imported over €160 billion ($170 + billion) worth of Russian fossil fuels, with crude oil accounting for the vast majority.
While much of this oil is refined domestically and then used in India’s growing economy, a significant portion is processed and even exported — especially to markets in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East — making India a key node in the global Russian oil value chain.
This trade relationship has been informally dubbed by some analysts as part of a new “Mother of All Deals” — representing a major realignment in global energy flows where India plays a central intermediary role between Russian producers and global markets.
Could EU Sanctions Affect India Directly?
Immediate Trade Restrictions? Not Fully — But Possibly
The current EU sanctions do not directly prohibit India from buying Russian crude. Unlike comprehensive prohibitions on Russian energy within the EU, third countries like India are not currently subject to binding restrictions from Brussels that forbid them from purchasing Russian crude oil outright.
However, the new ban on maritime services associated with Russian crude shipments could have significant indirect effects on India’s ability to continue importing Russian oil at scale:
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Shipping and logistics disruption: Without access to Western maritime services, including insurance and port services, the cost and complexity of transporting Russian crude increases — potentially making some shipping routes less viable.
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“Shadow fleet” limitations: The sanctions also target Russia’s so-called shadow fleet — tankers that help bypass existing price caps and sanctions regimes. Stricter pressure on these vessels can reduce the number of carriers willing or able to move Russian crude to India.
Thus, while India may still legally import Russian oil, the economics of doing so could become less favorable over time, especially if key service providers and insurers are unable or unwilling to participate due to sanctions risk.
Impact on Indian Refiners and Exports
Indian refiners — including major players like Reliance Industries, Indian Oil, and Bharat Petroleum — have benefited from purchasing discounted Russian crude and refining it for domestic use or export. This model helped India reduce fuel costs and generate export revenues, including a significant share going to Europe.
But the widening sanctions environment introduces several pressures:
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EU ban on petroleum products derived from Russian crude: Recent measures require refiners exporting to the EU to prove that products do not derive from Russian crude, leading some companies (e.g., Reliance’s export arm) to cease Russian imports for certain outputs.
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Export market restrictions: As European buyers tighten compliance and verification requirements, Indian refiners could lose some export markets or face increased legal and logistical burdens.
Even though India’s domestic demand remains high, refinery margins, export revenues, and competitiveness could be affected if sanctions erode access to global markets.
Banking and Financing Obstacles
Sanctions targeting financial services and banks linked to the Russian oil sector may also have knock-on effects on Indian entities engaged in financing or settling Russian oil deals. Restrictions on payment channels, correspondent banking services, or SWIFT access for certain banks could raise costs and complicate transactions.
While India and its firms have often used alternative payment mechanisms to navigate Western sanctions, the cumulative effect of continuous tightening could increase transactional friction and compliance costs.
Geopolitical and Strategic Considerations
India’s strategic calculus on Russian oil imports is influenced not just by market access but also by geopolitics:
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India has sought to maintain a balanced foreign policy, deepening ties with the United States and the European Union through trade pacts like the EU-India free trade agreement, while also preserving historical ties with Russia — particularly in defense and energy.
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Western pressure (including from the U.S.) has, so far, not fundamentally altered India’s decision to import Russian oil; analysts note that even broader trade deals are unlikely to result in near-term declines in Russian crude purchases.
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Large energy buyers like India are also wary of abrupt shifts that could trigger domestic inflation or disrupt energy security — factors that will temper New Delhi’s response to sanctions over the short term.
This balancing act — maintaining energy affordability and supply security while navigating an evolving sanctions landscape — will continue to shape India’s stance.
EU Sanctions Could Ease Russia’s Energy Market Access in Non-Western Markets
As Western energy demand diminishes (with EU Russian oil imports falling below 3 % of total imports by 2025 and plans to eliminate them entirely by 2027), Russia has increasingly redirected its crude exports to Asia, notably China and India.
If sanctions significantly disrupt Russia’s shipping options, this could:
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Channel even more Russian crude toward non-Western markets, increasing dependency among buyers like India and China if alternative logistics routes are viable.
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Strengthen Russia’s relationships with those buyers willing to absorb lower-priced barrels or finance non-Western shipping solutions.
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Create a bifurcated global oil market — one aligned with Western price caps and restrictions and another operating on the periphery of sanctions.
However, Incremental Strain Is Likely
Heavy-handed sanctions targeting maritime services, banking, and shadow fleets are likely to gradually increase transactional risks and costs, making Russia’s crude less economically competitive — a long-term goal of the EU and its partners.
While India is unlikely to abruptly end Russian oil purchases, continued sanctions escalation could push New Delhi to diversify suppliers or shift more rapidly toward alternative energy sources to mitigate exposure to sanctions risks.
No Immediate Blow to the “Mother of All Deals” — But Structural Pressures Are Building
The EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia is principally designed to curtail Moscow’s energy revenues and sap financial capacity to sustain its war in Ukraine. Though these measures do not directly ban India from buying Russian crude, they introduce significant indirect pressures:
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Higher transaction and shipping costs due to maritime service bans and sanctions risk.
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Increased compliance and verification requirements for exporting refined products to Western markets.
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Financial and banking frictions that elevate operational complexity.
In the short term, India’s oil imports from Russia are unlikely to collapse — and the so-called “Mother of All Deals” will not be undone overnight. However, as sanctions deepen and global trade norms tighten, India may face structural economic and geopolitical incentives to recalibrate its energy strategy, balancing energy security, diplomatic partnerships, and global market access.
