the conflict between Russia and Ukraine entered its fifth year — marking over 1,800 days of relentless fighting that has reshaped European security, strained global alliances, and inflicted profound human suffering. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed, Russia “has not won” and Ukraine still stands, but whether Kyiv can endure in the long term without sustained European support is a question looming over Brussels and Kyiv alike.
Five Years of War: A Quick Retrospective
When Russian forces launched a full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, they aimed to overwhelm Ukraine quickly. Instead, the war has become a grinding, attritional conflict centered on the industrial east ( Donbas) and contested territories. Russia currently controls around 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including land captured since 2022, but its yearly advances have been minimal — a mere 0.79% in the past year — underscoring the war’s stagnation.
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Hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides have been killed, wounded, or are missing. Some estimates suggest the toll could reach 2 million by spring 2026.
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Moscow’s objectives — overrunning Ukraine and breaking its spirit — have not materialised.
Zelenskyy marked the anniversary with defiance, declaring that Ukraine has defended its independence and statehood, while accusing Russia of failing to break Ukrainian resistance — or win its war.
European Support: The Backbone of Ukraine’s Defense
Over five years, European political, financial, and military backing has become indispensable to Kyiv’s war effort.
Political-Diplomatic Support
European leaders, including those from the EU and NATO, have repeatedly reiterated that Ukraine’s fight is not just Kyiv’s war — but a defence of European security values:
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Heads of state and EU officials travelled to Kyiv to commemorate the war’s anniversary, highlighting solidarity.
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President Zelenskyy has used these platforms to push for Ukraine’s deeper integration with Europe, including eventual EU membership — as seen in calls at major international gatherings.
Financial and Humanitarian Aid
Despite political friction within Europe, the bloc has pledged substantial support:
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The EU has provided hundreds of billions in assistance, though internal disagreements — such as Hungary blocking a €90bn loan — show cracks in consensus.
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European leaders have pledged to cover Ukraine’s financial needs for 2026–2027, underlining long-term commitments to stability.
Military Aid
European countries have supplied weapons, air defence systems, and training. Italy, for instance, has committed to continued military aid well into 2026.
However, debates about aid levels and strategic focus persist, especially as public fatigue and economic pressures mount across EU member states.
The Military and Human Cost
The war’s scale is unmatched in Europe since 1945:
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Russia’s massive troop mobilisation and steady attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have kept Kyiv’s defences on edge.
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Ukrainian use of long-range drones and evolving battlefield tactics has expanded the conflict into deeper Russian territory, complicating Moscow’s calculations.
Yet, the conflict remains one of attrition rather than decisive victories. Frontlines shift slowly, and both sides face severe manpower and equipment strains.
Economic Fallout and Reconstruction Challenges
The economic consequences of the war are enormous:
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Direct damage to housing, energy, and transport sectors amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars.
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Reconstruction costs across Ukraine could surpass $588 billion over the next decade — a figure highlighting the massive investment required even if active combat ends.
Europe’s financial role is therefore not only about immediate military assistance but also long-term rebuilding — without which Ukraine’s societal and economic viability could be in jeopardy.
Diplomatic Deadlock and Peace Prospects
Despite diplomatic efforts led by the United States and supported by Europe, peace negotiations have stalled:
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The core disputes — territorial control (especially Donbas), security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alliances — remain unresolved.
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Moscow insists Ukraine must drop its NATO aspirations and cede territory — demands Ukraine rejects.
This deadlock reinforces that war termination is unlikely without a negotiated settlement that protects Ukrainian sovereignty — a process in which Europe’s diplomatic influence is critical.
Europe’s Internal Challenges and Strategic Calculus
European unity is not absolute. Some member states under President Orban have blocked critical EU aid decisions, highlighting internal divisions.
At the same time, the conflict has reshaped European defence policies:
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NATO and EU states have significantly increased defence spending.
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The war has driven closer integration of military strategies and security cooperation across the continent.
Yet, these changes also pose risks — including public war fatigue and concerns that prolonged involvement could strain national budgets and political support.
Can Ukraine Survive Without European Support?
Short-to-Medium Term
No. Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia relies heavily on European military aid, financial assistance, and diplomatic backing. Without sustained support from the EU, NATO allies, and other Western partners, Kyiv’s resistance could weaken, especially amid grinding battles and infrastructure attacks.
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Europe’s contributions have kept Ukraine equipped and internationally recognised.
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Diplomatic efforts anchored by Europe help preserve Ukraine’s political agency.
Long-Term Viability
In the long run, the question of survival extends beyond battlefield endurance:
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Reconstruction and economic resilience will require ongoing European investment.
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Political support, including potential NATO or EU membership, influences Ukraine’s future security architecture.
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Strategic unity among European states will determine whether Kyiv’s resistance evolves into lasting peace backed by collective security.
Europe’s support is not just important — it is integral to Ukraine’s survival, both on the battlefield and in its aspirations for a sovereign, prosperous future. Without continued European leadership and transatlantic backing, Ukraine’s position would be significantly weaker and the chances of negotiated peace far more remote.
