The latest escalation in Yemen is creating an immediate strategic test for the newly signed Makkah Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye. Just days after the three countries signed the landmark defence pact in Makkah, Yemen’s Houthi movement launched another round of ballistic missile attacks against al-Makha and residential areas in Marib. The timing is significant because the attacks come amid a wider deterioration of security across the Red Sea and Gulf, placing Saudi Arabia’s emerging regional security architecture under unprecedented pressure.
Houthi Missiles Change the Strategic Equation
The latest Houthi attacks are not simply another episode in Yemen’s long-running civil war. According to the latest reporting, Houthi ballistic missiles targeted the Red Sea port city of al-Makha and residential areas in Marib, following an earlier attack on al-Makha that killed at least seven people and wounded 30. The escalation has been accompanied by attacks on Saudi-linked infrastructure and shipping, increasing the possibility that Yemen could once again become a major regional security flashpoint.
The geographical importance of al-Makha makes the situation even more serious. The port sits close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most strategically important maritime corridors. Any sustained military escalation around the Red Sea could therefore move beyond Yemen’s borders and affect global shipping, energy security and international trade.
For Saudi Arabia, the danger is particularly direct. The Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to threaten Saudi territory and strategic infrastructure. The recent attack on a Saudi Aramco facility in Jazan, following the escalation around al-Makha, illustrates how quickly the Yemen conflict can move from battlefield confrontation to attacks against critical economic infrastructure.
The Makkah Pact Arrives at a Dangerous Moment
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement was signed on August 7 by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye. Its central principle is that an armed attack against one member will be treated as an attack against all three, creating a collective-defence framework among three militarily significant Muslim-majority countries. Saudi Arabia brings enormous economic and strategic weight, Pakistan contributes extensive military experience and nuclear deterrence, while Türkiye contributes a large conventional military and an increasingly sophisticated defence industry.
This does not automatically mean that Pakistan or Türkiye would enter the Yemen conflict militarily if Saudi Arabia were attacked. Officials have stressed that the agreement is defensive and is not directed against a particular country. Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has also emphasized that the pact does not specifically target Iran and that responses to threats would depend on the circumstances and consultations between the members.
But this distinction does not make the pact strategically irrelevant to Yemen. On the contrary, the Houthi escalation provides the first major real-world test of the agreement’s credibility.
Is Yemen Becoming the Makkah Pact’s First Security Test?
The most important question is whether the Makkah Pact can function primarily as a deterrent rather than becoming an instrument for expanding the Yemen war.
The answer may depend on how the Houthis calculate Saudi Arabia’s new security environment. Before the pact, Riyadh already had extensive bilateral security relationships with Pakistan and Türkiye, as well as longstanding Western defence partnerships. The new agreement adds political clarity to the principle of collective security.
That could make future attacks against Saudi territory more costly from the Houthis’ perspective.
However, deterrence only works when an adversary believes that a military response is credible. If Houthi attacks continue without producing a coordinated response from the three members, the agreement could face questions about its practical value. Conversely, an immediate military response by Pakistan or Türkiye could transform a Yemen conflict into a much broader regional confrontation.
This is why the Makkah Pact’s greatest strength may actually be strategic ambiguity. It tells potential aggressors that Saudi Arabia is no longer operating within a purely bilateral security framework, without automatically committing the three countries to an offensive war.
Pakistan Faces the Most Delicate Strategic Balance
For Pakistan, the Yemen crisis represents a particularly complicated diplomatic challenge.
Islamabad has deep strategic and economic ties with Riyadh, while it has simultaneously attempted to maintain working relations with Iran. Pakistan has repeatedly presented itself as a supporter of dialogue and regional stability rather than another participant in Middle Eastern military confrontations.
The Makkah Pact therefore gives Pakistan greater strategic weight but also greater responsibility.
If a Houthi attack directly strikes Saudi territory, Islamabad could face pressure to demonstrate solidarity with Riyadh. Yet any decision to deploy Pakistani forces into Yemen would carry significant geopolitical consequences. Pakistan would have to balance its defence commitments to Saudi Arabia against its stated interest in avoiding a wider regional war.
The smarter Pakistani strategy would therefore be to strengthen Saudi air defence, intelligence cooperation, maritime security and counter-drone capabilities while simultaneously pushing for diplomacy to prevent the Yemen confrontation from expanding.
That approach would allow Islamabad to demonstrate that collective defence does not necessarily mean collective escalation.
Türkiye’s Role Could Be the Strategic Game Changer
Türkiye could become another crucial element in the emerging security equation.
Ankara has developed significant expertise in drones, missile technology, electronic warfare and modern battlefield systems. Its military experience and defence-industrial capabilities could give the Makkah Pact practical capabilities beyond traditional military deployments.
For Saudi Arabia, this could mean greater diversification of its defence partnerships.
For Türkiye, however, Yemen would be a complicated theatre. Ankara has strong regional ambitions but has generally sought to balance military power with diplomacy. Direct Turkish involvement in Yemen could risk opening another front in an already unstable Middle East.
The more likely short-term development is therefore greater intelligence sharing, defence coordination, air-defence cooperation, technology transfers and joint military planning rather than an immediate Turkish deployment to Yemen.
The Red Sea Is Now the Critical Front
The real strategic significance of the Houthi attacks lies beyond Yemen itself.
The Red Sea connects the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean through Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Any prolonged disruption threatens international shipping and raises transportation and energy costs. The Houthis’ threats against Saudi shipping therefore have implications far beyond Riyadh and Sanaa.
For Pakistan, this is particularly important because the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb are significant maritime routes connecting the country to Middle Eastern and European markets.
For Saudi Arabia, maritime security is directly connected to its economic transformation agenda. The kingdom’s economic diversification projects depend upon stable trade routes, secure ports and international investment.
For Türkiye, Red Sea instability affects commercial routes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe.
The Makkah Pact can therefore be interpreted not merely as a military agreement but as an emerging framework for protecting wider economic and strategic interests.
The Biggest Danger Is a Regional Chain Reaction
The greatest danger is not necessarily one Houthi missile attack. It is the possibility of a chain reaction.
A Houthi strike could trigger a Saudi response. A Saudi response could produce additional Houthi attacks. Iranian involvement or support could deepen the confrontation. Maritime attacks could then expand into the Red Sea. International naval forces could become increasingly involved, while Pakistan and Türkiye would face pressure to support Saudi Arabia.
Such a sequence could turn Yemen from a contained conflict into another regional war.
The United Nations has already warned that Yemen faces its greatest risk of renewed large-scale conflict since the 2022 truce. UN envoy Hans Grundberg has warned that the escalation could draw Yemen into a wider regional confrontation with devastating consequences for civilians.
That warning should be taken seriously.
The Makkah Pact Should Be a Deterrence Mechanism, Not a War Mechanism
The strategic success of the Makkah Pact should ultimately be measured by whether it prevents war rather than how effectively it fights one.
If the agreement encourages the Houthis and other regional actors to reconsider attacks on Saudi Arabia, it will have achieved its primary purpose. If it instead becomes a mechanism that automatically pulls Pakistan and Türkiye into every Saudi military confrontation, it could create precisely the instability that the agreement is supposed to prevent.
This distinction is crucial.
Collective defence can strengthen peace when it raises the cost of aggression. But collective defence can also accelerate escalation when every local confrontation becomes a test of alliance credibility.
The Makkah Pact therefore needs clearly defined mechanisms for crisis consultation, intelligence sharing, missile and drone defence, maritime security and diplomatic de-escalation.
From Makkah to the Red Sea: A New Security Architecture?
The symbolism of the agreement’s location is also politically important. Makkah represents security, unity and religious significance for the Muslim world. The agreement signed there reflects an attempt by three major Muslim states to build greater strategic self-reliance at a time when confidence in traditional external security guarantees is under pressure.
Yet the real test of this emerging architecture will not take place in a conference room in Makkah. It will take place in the skies over Saudi Arabia, along the Red Sea shipping lanes and on the battlefields of Yemen.
The latest Houthi missile attacks demonstrate how quickly regional instability can challenge a new security arrangement.
The Makkah Pact has therefore arrived at a critical moment. Its immediate objective should be clear: deter attacks against its members without creating a larger war.
Can the Makkah Pact Prevent the Next Middle East War?
The Houthi escalation is an early warning that the Middle East’s security environment is entering another dangerous phase. Yemen’s conflict is no longer isolated from the broader regional confrontation. Missile attacks, drone warfare, maritime threats and attacks on energy infrastructure can rapidly connect Yemen to Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea and the wider Gulf security system.
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement gives Saudi Arabia a new layer of strategic deterrence through its partnership with Pakistan and Türkiye. But its credibility will depend less on military rhetoric and more on coordination, restraint and clearly defined collective-security mechanisms.
The biggest strategic victory for the Makkah Pact would not be defeating the Houthis. It would be convincing them that further attacks will not achieve their objectives while simultaneously creating a diplomatic pathway away from escalation.
If Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye can achieve that balance, the Makkah Pact could become the foundation of a new regional security architecture.
If they fail, Yemen could become the first battlefield where the limits of the new alliance are exposed.
