The European Union’s population reached an all-time high of 450.4 million in 2024, propelled solely by migration as deaths continue to outnumber births, according to the latest Eurostat data released on July 11, 2025. This milestone underscores the critical role of migration in sustaining the EU’s population growth while highlighting the bloc’s ongoing demographic challenges, including low birth rates and an aging population.
Migration: The Engine of EU Population Growth
Since 2012, the EU has faced a negative natural population change, with more deaths than births recorded annually. In 2024, this trend persisted, with 4.82 million deaths compared to 3.56 million births, resulting in a natural population decline of 1.3 million. However, net migration of 2.3 million people more than offset this loss, driving a population increase of 1.07 million residents. This growth pushed the EU’s population from 449.2 million in 2023 to a record 450.4 million in 2024, according to Eurostat.
The surge in migration, particularly post-COVID-19, has been a key factor. Eurostat attributes this to “increased migratory movements” following the pandemic and the influx of displaced persons, notably from Ukraine, due to the Russian invasion in February 2022. These movements have been vital in counteracting the natural population decline and sustaining growth across the bloc.
A Diverse Landscape:
The 2024 data reveals a mixed picture across the EU’s 27 member states. While 19 countries saw population increases, eight experienced declines, reflecting varied demographic dynamics:
-
Top Gainers:
-
Malta led with the highest growth rate at 19.0 per 1,000 people, driven by strong migration inflows.
-
Ireland followed at 16.3 per 1,000, benefiting from both migration and a relatively high birth rate.
-
Luxembourg recorded 14.7 per 1,000, bolstered by its attractiveness to international workers.
-
-
Notable Declines:
-
Latvia saw the steepest drop at -9.9 per 1,000, reflecting both low birth rates and negative net migration.
-
Hungary (-4.7 per 1,000) and Poland and Estonia (both -3.4 per 1,000) also faced population decreases, driven by aging populations and emigration.
-
Germany, France, and Italy remain the EU’s population powerhouses, accounting for 47% of the total population. Germany alone has 83.6 million residents, followed by France with 68.4 million and Italy with 59.0 million. These nations continue to attract significant migrant inflows, contributing to their demographic stability.
The Demographic Challenge: Aging and Low Birth Rates
The EU’s reliance on migration highlights a deeper issue: an aging population and declining birth rates. The total fertility rate in 2023 was 1.38 live births per woman, far below the 2.1 needed for population stability without migration. This trend, coupled with a life expectancy of 84.2 years for women and 78.9 years for men in 2023, means the EU is aging rapidly. By 2100, Eurostat projects the population could shrink to 420 million, with the proportion of those aged 80 and over doubling from 6% to 15%.
This demographic shift poses significant challenges:
-
Welfare Systems: An aging population strains pension and healthcare systems, as fewer working-age individuals support a growing elderly population.
-
Labor Shortages: Low birth rates reduce the future workforce, necessitating migration to fill gaps in industries like technology, healthcare, and construction.
-
Economic Impacts: A shrinking working-age population could slow economic growth unless addressed through policy or immigration.
Migration’s Double-Edged Sword
While migration has been the sole driver of population growth since 2012, it’s a polarizing topic. The New Pact on Migration and Asylum, adopted in May 2024, aims to streamline asylum processes and promote sustainable migration policies. However, some member states, like Poland and Hungary, have tightened border controls amid public concerns, straining the EU’s Schengen zone. The influx of Ukrainian refugees, granted temporary protection since March 2022, has been a significant factor in recent growth, but it also underscores the need for long-term integration strategies.
Despite these challenges, migration brings vitality. Migrants are often younger and of working age, slowing the aging process in countries like Spain, which saw a 525,100-person increase in 2024, and Germany (+330,000). This influx supports economic productivity and cultural diversity but requires robust policies to ensure social cohesion.
A Balancing Act
The EU’s population trajectory raises critical questions about its future. Eurostat’s EUROPOP2023 projections estimate a peak of 453 million in 2026, followed by a decline to 420 million by 2100 due to persistent negative natural change (-125.3 million from births and deaths) and reliance on net migration (+98.1 million). Policymakers must balance:
-
Boosting Birth Rates: Incentives like family support programs could encourage higher fertility rates, as seen in countries like France (1.66 live births per woman in 2023).
-
Sustainable Migration: Policies that attract skilled workers while managing irregular migration will be crucial.
-
Aging Population Strategies: Investments in automation, education, and healthcare can mitigate labor shortages and support an older demographic.
Migration as Europe’s Lifeline
The EU’s record population of 450.4 million in 2024 is a testament to migration’s role in countering a natural population decline. As deaths (4.82 million) continue to outstrip births (3.56 million), the bloc faces a pivotal moment. Migration, particularly post-COVID and from Ukraine, has kept the EU’s population growing, but challenges like aging, low fertility, and integration remain. Countries like Malta, Ireland, and Luxembourg thrive on migration-driven growth, while others, like Latvia and Hungary, grapple with declines. As the EU navigates this demographic crossroads, strategic policies will determine whether it can sustain its population and economic vitality in the decades ahead.
