In the rugged terrain of Afghanistan, where ancient trade routes once connected empires, a new chapter of resource diplomacy is unfolding. As global powers vie for control over critical minerals essential for the green energy revolution, China’s strategic overtures toward Kabul raise a pivotal question: Is Beijing on the verge of securing a blockbuster mineral deal that could reshape Afghanistan’s economy? With the Taliban seeking foreign investment to stabilize their rule, and Pakistan acting as a crucial bridge, recent developments suggest possibilities ranging from transformative partnerships to cautious stalemates.
Could China Seal a Big Mineral Deal in Afghanistan?
Afghanistan’s untapped mineral wealth—estimated at over $1 trillion, including vast deposits of lithium, copper, iron, and rare earth elements—has long tantalized investors. For China, the world’s largest consumer of these resources, Afghanistan represents a strategic backyard opportunity to diversify supply chains away from Western-dominated markets. But is a “big deal” imminent?
Recent talks indicate renewed momentum. On August 20, 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during a visit to Kabul, expressed Beijing’s eagerness to explore and mine minerals in Afghanistan. This came amid discussions on Afghanistan formally joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a move that could unlock infrastructure funding tied to resource extraction. Analysts see this as a potential revival of stalled projects like the Mes Aynak copper mine, awarded to a Chinese consortium in 2007 but delayed by security concerns and archaeological issues.
- Lithium Bonanza: Afghanistan’s lithium reserves, dubbed the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” could fuel China’s electric vehicle boom. With global demand surging, a new deal might involve joint ventures, where Chinese firms provide technology and capital in exchange for long-term supply contracts. Recent X posts highlight Beijing’s interest, though past efforts, like a 2023 oilfield agreement scrapped in June 2025 over contract violations, underscore risks.
- Copper and Iron Revival: The Mes Aynak project, valued at $3 billion, could be fast-tracked if security improves. Beijing’s proposal to deepen mining cooperation signals intent, potentially including new concessions in northern provinces rich in oil and gas.
- Rare Earth Elements and Beyond: China’s dominance in rare earth processing makes Afghanistan’s deposits a natural fit. A comprehensive deal might bundle minerals with BRI infrastructure, such as roads and railways, to facilitate exports.
However, hurdles persist. Security threats from groups like ISIS-K, international sanctions on the Taliban, and environmental concerns could derail progress. Past Chinese investments, like the $540 million Amu Darya oil deal canceled in 2025, reflect these challenges. Optimistically, if Taliban assurances on stability hold, a major announcement could emerge by late 2025, potentially worth billions and positioning Afghanistan as a BRI hub.
Can China and Pakistan Redefine Afghanistan’s Fate?
Trilateral meeting between foreign ministers of China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan marks a diplomatic milestone—the first such gathering since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. These engagements are vital for several reasons.
First, they signal China’s pragmatic engagement with the Taliban, bypassing Western isolation to foster stability. Wang Yi emphasized building a “community with a shared future,” supporting Afghanistan’s independence while opposing “unilateral bullying.” This approach helps Beijing secure borders against extremism spillover into Xinjiang and tap economic opportunities.
Second, the meetings address regional security. With terrorism a shared threat, discussions focused on counterterrorism cooperation, crucial for protecting Chinese investments. They also promote economic integration, with talks on trade, agriculture, and health.
Pakistan’s role is pivotal as a facilitator. As China’s “ironclad friend,” Islamabad mediates tensions between Kabul and Beijing, leveraging its influence over the Taliban. Pakistan could provide logistical support for BRI extensions, ensure cross-border security, and benefit from transit fees. In the 2025 talks, Pakistan pushed for deeper ties, potentially acting as a guarantor for deals. However, strained Afghan-Pak relations over border issues require Islamabad’s diplomatic finesse to unlock trilateral gains.
What Joint Projects Are?
The flagship joint endeavor is the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan, a game-changer for regional connectivity. Launched in 2013 as a $60 billion BRI component, CPEC links China’s Xinjiang to Pakistan’s Gwadar port via highways, railways, and energy projects.
Trilateral dialogue, the three nations agreed to extend CPEC to Afghanistan, reaffirming a May 2025 commitment. This involves:
- Infrastructure Upgrades: Building roads from Peshawar to Kabul and onward to Central Asia, potentially including a railway link. This would integrate Afghanistan into BRI, facilitating mineral exports.
- Economic Zones and Trade: Special economic zones in Afghanistan could attract Chinese manufacturing, boosting jobs and GDP. Transit trade would rise, with Afghanistan gaining access to Pakistani ports.
- Energy and Security Collaboration: Pipelines and power grids might extend, while joint anti-terrorism efforts protect assets.
Geopolitically, this counters India’s influence and stabilizes the region. However, challenges include funding—Pakistan and Afghanistan lack resources—and security risks from Baloch insurgents or TTP militants. Success hinges on Taliban governance reforms and international buy-in. If realized, CPEC extension could generate billions in trade, transforming Afghanistan from a war-torn state to a connectivity hub by 2030.
China’s Bold Bet on Afghanistan’s Future
China’s potential to reshape Afghanistan’s trajectory is immense but fraught with caveats. Beijing’s “no-strings” engagement—focusing on economics over human rights—offers a lifeline to the Taliban, whose economy has shrunk 27% since 2021 amid sanctions.
Positively, Chinese investments could catalyze growth. With $100 billion potentially on the table via CPEC and mining, Afghanistan might see infrastructure booms, job creation, and revenue from resources. Experts note this could make Kabul a regional integration hub, reducing aid dependency. Beijing’s track record in Africa shows it can deliver projects swiftly, potentially alleviating poverty and stabilizing politics.
Yet, skepticism abounds. Security remains paramount; attacks on Chinese personnel, like a 2022 Kabul hotel bombing, deter big bets. Taliban policies on women and inclusivity alienate global partners, limiting BRI integration. Moreover, China’s approach is “unenthusiastic,” prioritizing stability over massive bailouts. Without addressing terrorism and governance, investments risk failure, as seen in canceled deals.
Ultimately, China can influence Afghanistan’s fate but not unilaterally change it. Success depends on Taliban reforms, regional cooperation, and easing sanctions. If navigated well, Beijing could foster a prosperous, stable Afghanistan; otherwise, it might perpetuate dependency cycles.
A High-Stakes Gamble in the Heart of Asia
As China eyes Afghanistan’s minerals and pushes for deeper ties through trilateral forums, the region stands at a crossroads. Potential deals could usher in economic revival, but risks of instability loom large. With Pakistan’s mediation and projects like CPEC extension, the trio’s collaboration might redefine geopolitics. Yet, for Afghanistan’s fate to truly shift, internal reforms and global engagement are essential. Stay tuned—2025 could be the year resource diplomacy rewrites history.
