As the world gears up for the pivotal COP-30 climate conference in Belem, Brazil, in 2025, Pakistan stands at a crossroads. A recent high-level roundtable hosted by the Centre for Strategic Perspectives (CSP) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) titled “Pakistan’s Climate Negotiation Strategy and Preparations for COP-30” laid bare the stakes. With devastating floods hitting Pakistan again in 2025, the nation—among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable despite contributing just 0.9% of global emissions—is sharpening its approach to secure equitable climate finance, technology transfers, and resilience. But as global tensions rise, from US military moves in South America to US-China trade spats, can Pakistan’s climate diplomacy cut through the noise?
Why COP-30 Matters for Pakistan
Dubbed the “COP of Implementation,” COP-30 is a make-or-break moment for translating Paris Agreement pledges into action. For Pakistan, the stakes are existential: The 2022 floods cost $30 billion, and 2025’s deluges displaced thousands more. Ambassador Sohail Mahmood, ISSI Director General, emphasized that Pakistan’s minimal emissions (0.9% globally vs. China’s 29% or US’s 14%) demand adherence to the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR). Pakistan seeks:
- Equitable Climate Finance: Access to grant-based funds, not loans, via mechanisms like the Loss and Damage Fund.
- Technology Transfers: Affordable access to green tech for adaptation and mitigation.
- South-South Cooperation: Partnerships with Global South nations to tackle shared challenges like transboundary pollution.
Pakistan’s progress since COP-29 includes its National Adaptation Plan (2025–2030) and the Pakistan Climate Resilience Financing Framework, aimed at tapping international funds. Renewable energy projects, like solar and wind, now target a 60% energy share by 2030, up from 12% in 2020.
- Dr. Neelum Nigar (CSP Director): Stressed aligning climate goals with Pakistan’s development needs post-2025 floods.
- Jamil Ahmad (UNEP): Praised Pakistan’s Living Indus Initiative, linking water, biodiversity, and livelihoods, urging local action.
- Nadia Rehman (Ministry of Planning): Called for issue-based negotiations over traditional G-77 alignment, focusing on redefining sovereign risk to unlock concessional financing.
- Sadia Munawar (Ministry of Climate Change): Detailed provincial showcases at COP-30 and green financing goals.
- Kashmala Kakakhel (Climate Finance Expert): Warned against debt-driven resilience, advocating grant-based funding and private sector innovation.
How Global Tensions Shape Pakistan’s Strategy
US Military Moves in South America: A Distraction or Opportunity?
The US’s deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford to South America, announced October 24, 2025, signals a focus on “narco-terrorism” but fuels speculation of regime change in Venezuela. For Pakistan, this escalates Global South tensions, potentially diverting Western climate funds to security priorities. Yet, it opens doors for South-South alliances, as nations like Brazil (COP-30 host) rally against perceived US overreach. Pakistan’s push for regional cooperation on pollution and finance could gain traction if it leverages platforms like APEC or G-77.
US-China Trade Spat: A Threat to Climate Funds?
The US Trade Representative’s probe into China’s Phase One trade deal compliance, launched October 24, 2025, accuses Beijing of shortfalls in IP, agriculture, and tech transfers. China’s rebuttal, via Global Times, claims it met obligations while accusing the US of “false narratives.” This tit-for-tat risks derailing COP-30’s focus on finance and tech transfers, as both powers prioritize trade wars over climate cooperation. Pakistan, reliant on Chinese infrastructure loans ($62 billion via CPEC) and Western climate aid, must navigate this carefully.
Pakistan’s Demands at COP-30:
Loss and Damage Fund Operationalization
Pakistan championed this fund post-2022 floods, but disbursements remain slow—only $100 million pledged globally by October 2025. Kashmala Kakakhel’s call for grant-based funding echoes Pakistan’s stance: Borrowing (Pakistan’s external debt hit $130 billion in 2024) isn’t sustainable.
Technology Transfer and Innovation
Nadia Rehman’s push to redefine sovereign risk aims to lower borrowing costs for green tech. Pakistan’s solar capacity grew 25% in 2024, but reliance on imported tech persists. Kakakhel urged homegrown solutions via academia and private sector partnerships.
Grassroots and Provincial Action
Sadia Munawar highlighted that all Pakistani provinces—Punjab, Sindh, KP, Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, and AJK—will showcase resilience projects at COP-30. Initiatives like Sindh’s mangrove restoration and KP’s Billion Tree Tsunami are models for local adaptation.
Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan
Challenges
- Geopolitical Noise: US-South America tensions and US-China trade wars could overshadow climate talks, reducing funds for vulnerable nations.
- Debt Trap: Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio hit 78% in 2025, limiting fiscal space for climate investments.
- Reactive Policy: Experts at ISSI warned Pakistan’s approach remains flood-driven, not proactive.
Opportunities
- South-South Leadership: Aligning with Brazil and India could amplify Pakistan’s voice in G-77.
- Living Indus Model: UNEP’s praise offers a blueprint for global replication, attracting funds.
- Private Sector Role: Engaging local firms could cut reliance on foreign tech, per Kakakhel’s advice.
Can Pakistan Turn Vulnerability into Influence?
Pakistan’s COP-30 strategy, as hashed out at ISSI, blends pragmatism with urgency. Facing floods and fiscal strain, it’s pushing for fairness—grants over loans, tech over debt, and local innovation over imports. Yet, global distractions like US-South America escalations and US-China trade wars threaten to sideline vulnerable nations. By leveraging South-South ties and models like Living Indus, Pakistan could amplify its voice. COP-30 isn’t just a conference—it’s Pakistan’s chance to demand a fairer climate future. Will the world listen?
