Germany is on the verge of its biggest military overhaul in decades: mandatory questionnaires and medical checks for all 18-year-old men starting in 2026–2027, with the explicit option to introduce full conscription if voluntary recruitment targets are missed. The Bundeswehr aims to grow from 182,000 active troops today to 260,000 by 2035, plus 200,000 reservists. This marks the clearest step yet away from the post-Cold War pacifism that defined the country for three decades. But why now, and how far is Berlin really willing to go?
Why Is Germany Moving Towards Compulsory Military Service?
The decision is driven by three interlocking realities:
- Russia’s War in Ukraine and the “Zeitenwende” Wake-Up Call Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, German leaders have repeatedly warned that Moscow could be ready to test NATO’s eastern flank as early as 2029. Germany’s top general stated publicly that the West has roughly four years to prepare for a possible direct confrontation. The old assumption that large-scale European war was impossible has collapsed.
- Chronic Understaffing of the Bundeswehr When conscription was suspended in 2011, the German military shrank dramatically. Recruitment has consistently missed targets by 20–25% annually. Even after the 2022 €100 billion special fund and a commitment to hit NATO’s 2% GDP spending target, the army remains critically short of personnel. Voluntary service alone cannot close the gap fast enough.
- U.S. Pressure and European Leadership Ambitions The return of Donald Trump to the White House has reignited demands that Europe finally “pay its fair share.” Germany, as the EU’s largest economy, is positioning itself to become the continent’s leading conventional military power — a role Chancellor Friedrich Merz openly embraces with the phrase “whatever it takes.”
The new model is carefully staged:
- 2026 → Mandatory questionnaire for all 18-year-olds (men and women)
- 2027 → Compulsory medical examination for men
- If targets are missed → Parliament can activate selective or general conscription This “conscription light” approach is designed to maximise recruitment while minimising political backlash.
Is Germany Facing an Internal Threat?
No credible evidence suggests Germany faces an imminent internal security threat that justifies reintroducing the draft. Terrorism and cyber risks exist, but they do not require hundreds of thousands of conscripts. The driver is unambiguously external: the dramatically worsened security environment on Europe’s eastern border and the fear that American security guarantees may become unreliable.
Public protests and youth opposition (63% of 18–29-year-olds reject compulsory service) reflect cultural resistance rather than a response to domestic danger. Many young Germans still view mandatory service as an outdated intrusion on personal freedom, not a necessary shield against invasion.
Does Germany Want to Increase Its Defense Capabilities?
Yes — and the ambition goes far beyond marginal improvements. Chancellor Merz and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius have made it explicit: Germany wants Europe’s strongest conventional army by the early 2030s. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger claims this could even be achieved by 2030 if political will remains strong.
Key indicators:
- Defence budget set to exceed 2% of GDP sustainably
- Plans for national-service-style options (e.g., mandatory societal service as an alternative)
- Massive investment in domestic arms production (tanks, artillery, air defence, AI, satellites)
- Active recruitment of women and EU citizens into the Bundeswehr
This is no longer just about meeting NATO quotas — it is about turning Germany into the indispensable European pillar of hard power.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz:
In many respects, yes — at least on security and defence policy. Angela Merkel’s 16-year tenure was defined by:
- Suspending conscription in 2011
- Keeping defence spending below 1.5% of GDP for most of her chancellorship
- A deliberate culture of military restraint (“culture of restraint” remained official doctrine)
Merz, who took office in 2025, has systematically dismantled that legacy:
- Reintroducing elements of compulsory service
- Embracing leadership of European rearmament
- Adopting “whatever it takes” rhetoric on defence spending
- Openly preparing for high-intensity warfare scenarios
While Merz avoids direct personal attacks on Merkel’s record, the contrast is deliberate and stark. Where Merkel saw Germany’s strength in economic power and soft diplomacy, Merz sees it in credible hard-power deterrence.
Germany’s march toward compulsory military service is not driven by internal fears or nostalgia — it is a calculated response to the return of great-power conflict in Europe. Berlin no longer believes it can hide behind American protection or moral restraint alone. Whether the public will ultimately accept full conscription remains the biggest open question, but the direction is clear: the era of a deliberately undersized, pacifist-leaning Bundeswehr is over. Europe’s sleeping giant is waking up — and it intends to be ready by 2029.
