For decades, the international system was built upon a simple yet ambitious idea: nations would resolve disputes through diplomacy, international law, and multilateral institutions rather than military force. Following the end of the Cold War, many policymakers believed the world was gradually moving toward greater cooperation, stronger international organizations, and fewer interstate conflicts.
That optimism is rapidly fading.
A new report by four leading German peace research institutes paints a troubling picture of global affairs. According to their annual Peace Report, the international order that emerged after World War II and expanded after the Cold War is showing signs of serious deterioration. The report warns that democracies are under pressure, armed conflicts are increasing, and international institutions are struggling to maintain relevance in a world increasingly dominated by geopolitical rivalry.
The Most Violent Period Since the End of the Cold War
One of the report’s most alarming findings is that the period between 2021 and 2024 represents the most violent phase since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
According to the researchers, 61 armed conflicts were recorded across 36 countries, highlighting a dramatic rise in global instability. At the same time, the number of forcibly displaced people worldwide exceeded 120 million by April 2025, reflecting the devastating human consequences of modern conflicts.
These figures challenge a long-held assumption that globalization and economic interdependence would naturally reduce the likelihood of war. Instead, the international community is witnessing a resurgence of military confrontation across multiple regions simultaneously.
From Ukraine and the Middle East to Sudan, Myanmar, and parts of Africa, conflict is no longer concentrated in isolated regions. Violence is becoming a defining characteristic of the international landscape.
From Global Policemen to Global Warlords?
Perhaps the most controversial conclusion of the German report is its assertion that governments are increasingly behaving like “state warlords.”
The phrase reflects a growing perception that powerful countries are no longer consistently constrained by international law or multilateral institutions. Instead, states are increasingly using military force, economic coercion, and geopolitical pressure to advance their interests.
The report points to interventions and actions involving the United States, Russia, and Israel as examples of major powers acting outside traditional international norms. It also highlights regional powers such as Pakistan, Turkey, Ethiopia, and several Gulf monarchies, arguing that they too are increasingly relying on hard power to pursue strategic objectives.
Whether one agrees with every example cited in the report, the broader trend is difficult to ignore. Around the world, governments appear increasingly willing to prioritize national interests over international consensus.
This shift marks a significant departure from the post-Cold War era, when multilateral cooperation was often presented as the preferred path for resolving disputes.
Why Democracies Are Losing Ground
The report also identifies another troubling development: the global decline of democracy.
For many years, democracy was considered one of the central pillars supporting the international order. Democratic governance was often associated with political accountability, respect for international law, and peaceful dispute resolution.
Today, however, democratic systems face growing challenges.
Political polarization, economic inequality, disinformation campaigns, and declining public trust in institutions have weakened democratic resilience in many countries. Meanwhile, authoritarian governments have become more assertive and confident on the global stage.
As democracies struggle with internal divisions, their ability to project influence internationally has diminished. This trend has profound implications for global governance because many international institutions were built around cooperation among democratic states.
The weakening of democracy therefore contributes directly to the weakening of the broader rules-based order.
The United Nations: A Giant in Crisis
No institution better symbolizes the challenges facing global governance than the United Nations.
Established after World War II to prevent future conflicts, the UN remains the cornerstone of international diplomacy. Yet according to the German researchers, the organization is experiencing one of the deepest crises in its history.
At the heart of the problem lies the growing rivalry between major powers. The Security Council, once envisioned as the primary mechanism for maintaining international peace, is frequently paralyzed by disagreements among its permanent members.
Russia’s war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and tensions in Asia have repeatedly exposed the Council’s inability to produce unified responses to major crises.
Financial challenges further complicate the situation. Budget constraints and declining contributions threaten the organization’s operational effectiveness at a time when demand for peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, and conflict prevention is increasing.
Yet despite its shortcomings, the report reaches a striking conclusion: there is no realistic alternative to the United Nations.
The institution may be weakened, but no other organization possesses comparable legitimacy, global reach, or diplomatic infrastructure.
The Return of Great Power Competition
One of the defining features of the post-Cold War period was the dominance of a single superpower. Today, that era has ended.
The international system is increasingly shaped by competition among multiple centers of power, including the United States, China, Russia, the European Union, India, and various regional actors.
This emerging multipolar environment has advantages, such as greater representation of diverse interests. However, it also creates new challenges.
Without a dominant power capable of enforcing international norms, global governance depends heavily on consensus. Unfortunately, consensus has become increasingly difficult to achieve.
As geopolitical competition intensifies, international institutions often become battlegrounds for rival interests rather than mechanisms for collective problem-solving.
The result is a world in which cooperation becomes harder precisely when global challenges require it most.
Why Foreign Aid Is Becoming a Security Issue
The German researchers argue that one of the most overlooked threats to global stability is the reduction of international aid.
In recent years, many donor countries have redirected resources toward defense spending, border security, and domestic priorities. While understandable from a political perspective, these decisions can have unintended consequences.
Fragile states often rely on development assistance to maintain social stability, strengthen institutions, and prevent conflict. When aid is reduced, governments may struggle to provide basic services, creating opportunities for extremism, violence, and political instability.
The report suggests that cutting aid is not merely a humanitarian issue—it is also a security issue.
Failure to invest in prevention often leads to far greater costs later in the form of humanitarian crises, refugee flows, and military interventions.
Can the Rules-Based Order Be Saved?
Despite its bleak assessment, the report does not suggest that the collapse of the international order is inevitable.
Instead, the researchers argue that rebuilding trust in international institutions remains possible if governments are willing to undertake meaningful reforms.
They advocate stronger support for the United Nations, stable funding mechanisms, credible security guarantees, and a more balanced approach to sanctions and conflict management.
The report also emphasizes the importance of coalition-building among medium-sized and smaller states. In a world increasingly dominated by great power rivalry, these countries may play a critical role in defending multilateralism and preserving international norms.
The Real Risk Is Not Disorder—But Permanent Instability
Perhaps the greatest danger facing the international system is not the complete collapse of global governance but its gradual erosion.
The world is unlikely to descend into total chaos. International trade, diplomacy, and cooperation will continue. However, the rules governing international behavior may become weaker, less predictable, and increasingly selective.
Such an environment creates uncertainty for governments, businesses, and ordinary citizens alike.
Conflicts become harder to prevent. Humanitarian crises become more difficult to manage. Economic shocks become more disruptive.
Most importantly, trust—the foundation of any international order—becomes increasingly scarce.
A Defining Moment for Global Governance
The findings of the German Peace Report serve as a stark warning that the world is entering a period of profound geopolitical transformation.
Rising conflicts, declining democratic resilience, growing great-power competition, and the weakening of international institutions all point toward a more fragmented global landscape.
Yet history also shows that international orders are not permanent. They evolve, adapt, and sometimes reinvent themselves in response to new realities.
The central challenge facing world leaders today is whether they can reform and strengthen existing institutions before geopolitical competition completely overwhelms them.
The future of global peace may depend less on military strength and more on whether nations can rediscover the value of cooperation in an increasingly divided world.
