NATO is expected to reaffirm that Russia poses a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security at the Ankara Summit. Explore why the Alliance is reshaping its strategy, strengthening collective defence, and expanding support for Ukraine.

The upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara is about more than reaffirming the Alliance’s collective defence pledge. It reflects a profound strategic shift in how NATO views the European security landscape.

According to the draft summit declaration, NATO leaders are expected to reaffirm their “iron-clad” commitment to Article 5—the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all—while declaring that Russia poses a “long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security and stability.” The declaration also commits allies to sustained military assistance for Ukraine and continued investment in defence capabilities.

Rather than treating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a temporary crisis, NATO increasingly sees it as evidence of a broader challenge to European security that could persist well beyond the current conflict.

From Crisis Management to Long-Term Deterrence

For many years after the Cold War, NATO focused on crisis management, counterterrorism and expeditionary operations.

That strategic environment has changed dramatically.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, repeated missile and drone strikes, military pressure along NATO’s eastern flank, and allegations of cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns have reinforced the Alliance’s assessment that Europe faces an enduring security challenge rather than a short-lived confrontation. NATO leaders now describe Russia as a persistent threat requiring long-term deterrence and preparedness.

This marks one of the most significant transformations in NATO’s strategic thinking since the end of the Cold War.

Why Article 5 Has Returned to the Centre of NATO Strategy

The draft declaration places exceptional emphasis on Article 5.

Collective defence remains NATO’s founding principle, but in recent years questions had emerged about burden-sharing and political cohesion. The Ankara summit seeks to reaffirm that the commitment remains unequivocal despite political differences among allies.

For frontline members such as Poland and the Baltic states, a clear Article 5 commitment is viewed as an essential deterrent against potential military coercion.

Ukraine Has Become Europe’s First Line of Defence

NATO’s evolving posture reflects the widespread view among member states that Ukraine’s resistance has broader implications for European security.

The Alliance is expected to pledge around €70 billion in military support for Ukraine during 2026 and to maintain comparable assistance in 2027. The objective is not only to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty but also to strengthen deterrence against further regional instability.

Many European governments argue that sustained support for Ukraine contributes directly to the security of the Euro-Atlantic area.

Russia’s Actions Have Reshaped European Defence Policy

Russia’s military campaign has had consequences extending far beyond Ukraine.

Across Europe, governments have accelerated defence spending, modernized armed forces, expanded ammunition production and reinforced NATO’s eastern flank. Several countries that previously maintained more cautious security policies have adopted a stronger emphasis on deterrence.

The Alliance also continues to cite concerns over cyber operations, hybrid activities and disinformation alongside conventional military threats.

For NATO, security competition with Russia is now viewed as multidimensional rather than purely military.

Why NATO Rejects the Idea of ‘Business as Usual’

Before 2022, many European governments hoped economic engagement could coexist with strategic competition.

That assumption has weakened considerably.

The Alliance increasingly argues that Russia’s actions have undermined trust and fundamentally altered Europe’s security environment. As a result, NATO is placing greater emphasis on resilience, readiness and defence industrial capacity instead of assuming a return to pre-war relations in the near future.

Defence Spending Is Becoming a Strategic Priority

The Ankara summit is also expected to reinforce commitments to higher defence investment.

European allies have faced sustained pressure to strengthen their military capabilities, improve interoperability and expand defence production. NATO leaders increasingly argue that credible deterrence requires not only political unity but also sufficient resources and modern military capabilities.

The shift reflects a broader recognition that long-term security demands sustained investment rather than temporary emergency measures.

The Message to Moscow

By formally identifying Russia as a long-term threat, NATO is sending several strategic signals:

• Collective defence remains non-negotiable.
• Continued support for Ukraine is viewed as integral to European security.
• Attempts to undermine Euro-Atlantic stability will be met with stronger coordination among allies.
• Investments in military readiness and resilience will continue over the long term.

The declaration is intended to demonstrate that the Alliance does not expect security challenges associated with Russia to disappear quickly.

A New Security Architecture for Europe

The Ankara summit may ultimately be remembered as part of a broader transformation in European security policy.

Rather than preparing for a post-war normalization with Moscow, NATO is adapting to what it sees as a prolonged period of strategic competition. This includes stronger collective defence, enhanced military readiness, closer cooperation among allies and sustained support for Ukraine.

For many member states, the central lesson of recent years is that deterrence, resilience and alliance unity are now indispensable elements of Euro-Atlantic security.

Euro-Atlantic security

NATO’s decision to characterize Russia as a “long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security and stability” reflects a significant evolution in the Alliance’s strategic outlook. The focus of the Ankara Summit extends beyond reaffirming Article 5; it is about preparing NATO for a security environment shaped by prolonged geopolitical competition, continued support for Ukraine and stronger collective defence.

Whether this approach succeeds will depend on maintaining allied cohesion, translating increased defence spending into real military capability, and balancing deterrence with efforts to reduce the risk of broader conflict. For now, NATO’s message is clear: safeguarding Euro-Atlantic security requires long-term unity, sustained investment and readiness in the face of what it considers an enduring strategic challenge posed by Russia