The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), faces a significant test as the European signatories, including the UK, France, and Germany, prepare to breach the accord. According to a report by The Guardian, these nations are refusing to lift sanctions on Tehran’s missile usage, contrary to the agreement’s initial specifications. This breach raises uncertainties, as Iran’s response remains unpredictable, given its near capacity to produce weapons-grade enriched uranium.
Background:
While former President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal in 2018 and re-imposed extensive sanctions on Iran, the UK, Germany, and France chose to remain within the agreement. However, Iran responded to Washington’s actions by violating the terms of the JCPOA. It increased its uranium quantities and enriched it to extremely high levels, putting the accord’s integrity at risk.
European Justifications for Sanctions:
European Union and UK diplomats justify their decision to maintain sanctions by pointing to Iran’s violations of the deal, including its sale of drones to Russia for use in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. These drones, known as “kamikaze” UAVs, are deployed by Russia to attack vital infrastructure. Additionally, diplomats raised concerns about Iran potentially exporting ballistic missiles to Russia in the future.
IAEA Findings and Iran’s Enriched Uranium Stockpile:
In June, Rafael Grossi, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reported that Iran had failed to implement its nuclear-related commitments since February 2021. Furthermore, Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium had increased by over a quarter in just three months. The IAEA’s findings revealed that Iran had accumulated 114.1 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium, exceeding the threshold considered a “significant quantity” for nuclear explosives. Iran’s total stockpile of enriched uranium now surpasses the permitted limit of the JCPOA by more than 14 times.
Implications of the Sanctions:
The European sanctions, originally scheduled to expire on October 18, aimed to restrict Iran from developing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. They also prohibited the buying, selling, or transferring of drones capable of flying beyond 300km to or from Iran without UN authorization. The decision to maintain these sanctions introduces uncertainties in the delicate balance of the nuclear deal and raises concerns about Iran’s potential response.
Conclusion:
The refusal of the European signatories to lift sanctions on Iran’s missile usage represents a breach of the 2015 nuclear deal. This development highlights the challenges and uncertainties surrounding the future of the JCPOA. Iran’s escalating violations and significant stockpile of enriched uranium pose concerns about its nuclear ambitions. The outcome of this breach and Iran’s response will shape the trajectory of the nuclear deal and have implications for regional and global security.
