China’s population faced a second consecutive year of decline in 2023, marking a significant trend with profound long-term effects on the nation’s economic growth potential.
With a record-low birth rate and the aftermath of a COVID-19 wave, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop of 2.08 million people, emphasizing the pressing challenges that lie ahead for the world’s second-largest economy.
Population Decline Accelerates:
After a decline of 850,000 in 2022, the 2023 figures underscore a more substantial decrease, with China’s total population now standing at 1.409 billion. The convergence of factors, including a surge in COVID-19 deaths post-lockdown and an unprecedented drop in new births, paints a complex picture of demographic challenges.
COVID-19 Impact on Demographics:
China’s nationwide COVID surge in 2022, following years of strict screening and quarantine measures, took a toll on the population. Total deaths rose by 6.6% to 11.1 million in 2023, with the death rate reaching its highest level since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution. The aftermath of the pandemic has intensified concerns about the country’s demographic landscape.
Record-Low Birth Rate and Economic Factors:
New births fell by 5.7% to 9.02 million, contributing to a record-low birth rate of 6.39 per 1,000 people. The decades-long decline in births, exacerbated by the one-child policy and rapid urbanization, has been further influenced by economic factors. Rising youth unemployment, falling wages, and a property sector crisis have all contributed to a diminishing appetite for childbearing in China.
Economic Implications and Aging Population:
The demographic challenges are not only a concern for China’s societal fabric but also for its economic future. The rising costs of elderly care and retirement benefits, coupled with a diminishing workforce and consumer base, pose significant challenges. Long-term projections suggest a potential decline of 109 million in China’s population by 2050, raising questions about the nation’s growth prospects.
Policy Responses and Government Initiatives:
To address the declining birth rate, local governments have announced various measures, including tax deductions, extended maternity leave, and housing subsidies. However, challenges such as insufficient funding and a lack of motivation at the local level hinder the effective implementation of these policies. Calls for a unified nationwide family subsidy scheme have emerged to tackle the root causes of demographic decline.
Impact on Retirement-Age Population and Pension System:
China’s population aged 60 and over reached 296.97 million in 2023, comprising 21.1% of the total population. The retirement-age population is expected to surpass 400 million by 2035, posing challenges for the pension system. The Chinese Academy of Sciences warns of the pension system running out of money by 2035, adding urgency to address the financial implications of an aging population.
Societal Factors and Cultural Shifts:
Factors such as high childcare and education costs, job market uncertainty, gender discrimination, and traditional family expectations contribute to the reluctance of many Chinese couples to have children. President Xi Jinping’s call for cultivating a new culture of marriage and childbearing highlights the need for broader societal shifts.
Conclusion:
China’s demographic challenges, marked by population decline and an aging society, cast a shadow over its economic future. As the nation grapples with the aftermath of COVID-19 and economic factors influencing family planning decisions, the government’s response and the effectiveness of policy initiatives will play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of China’s population dynamics. The intricate interplay of societal, economic, and cultural factors calls for comprehensive solutions to ensure a sustainable and balanced demographic future for the world’s second-largest economy.
