The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI), in partnership with the Centre for Law and Security (CLAS), convened a high‑level seminar titled “Weaponizing Water: The Indus Waters Treaty and Future of Regional Stability”, spotlighting India’s unprecedented move to place the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) “in abeyance” following the Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 22 2025.
India’s unilateral abeyance: In April 2025, India formally suspended treaty obligations—halting water data-sharing, technical meetings, and western-river releases (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab)
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Pakistan’s alarm: Islamabad termed these actions “a grave regional threat” and “act of war,” warning water sanctions could destabilize ecosystems and severely threaten agriculture
Ambassador Sohail Mahmood (DG, ISSI)
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Claimed wr weaponization is entwined with BJP‑RSS ideologies like Hindu Rashtra and Akhand Bharat, labeling the move a “muscular” expression of securitizing Pakistan relations.
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Noted India’s dam projects contravene IWT terms and could endanger millions’ livelihoods.
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Urged Pakistan to escalate its legal and diplomatic campaign—engage UN forums, build alliances with water‑stressed nations (China, South Asia), and strengthen domestic water governance under its 2018 National Water Policy.
Ambassador Sardar Masood Khan (TMUC & CLAS)
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Observed India’s dam-building spree provides strategic leverage.
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Called for leveraging World Bank, UN Security Council, and P5 powers to pressure India.
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Emphasized Pakistan must adopt a proactive policy to avert a perilous status quo.
Ambassador Shafqat Kakakhel (SDPI)
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Linked the Kashmir dispute with strategic control of western-river flows.
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Urged invoking IWT Article IX for formal dispute resolution and alerting the UN body.
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Glassed IWT as Pakistan’s shield and called for sustained diplomacy.
Mr. Ashfaq Mahmood (Former Federal Secretary)
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Warned that India is using water to counter third-party mediation, fueling a terrorism-related fear narrative.
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Recommended strengthened legal posture—Court of Arbitration, better hydrological data, and active dialogue with India.
Mr. Rehman Azhar (CLAS Executive Director)
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Argued that New Delhi’s suspension serves domestic politics (e.g. revocation of Article 370).
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Suggested media and diplomatic campaigns framing India’s actions as environmental and nuclear-security risks.
Dr. Bushra Bibi (Bahria Law School)
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Warned water might fuel future conflicts—only 0.3 % of global water is usable.
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Called India’s suspension “environmental terrorism.”
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Urged legal innovations like granting rivers legal personhood and engaging global environmental bodies.
Ambassador Khalid Mahmood (Closing Remarks)
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Cited the World Bank affirming the treaty cannot be changed unilaterally.
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Stressed that climate change intensifies water stress, requiring innovative governance within the IWT framework.
Regional Context & Legal Implications
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Growing water weaponization: Scholarly analysis chronicles India leveraging water rights as a geopolitical tool since 1960, with notable escalations in 2023–25 after Pahalgam weapons attack
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Legal violations: Experts argue India’s “abeyance” move lacks legal basis under the Vienna Convention and IWT, possibly breaching both
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Diplomatic escalation: Pakistan condemned India’s move at the UN and invoked global pressure mechanisms .
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Global diplomatic response: UK & US engaged to maintain ceasefire and urged treaty compliance
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Pakistan’s global outreach: PM Shehbaz Sharif raised the treaty’s suspension at a regional conference in Tajikistan, drawing international attention
What’s at Stake
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Pakistan’s water reliance: Over 90 % of its agriculture depends on Indus Basin rivers
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Agricultural & climate vulnerability: Climate pressures and glacier loss amplify risks—droughts, floods, and unpredictability.
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Security and diplomatic stability: Analysts warn of drought-induced conflict potentiating conventional or nuclear escalations .
Strategic Roadmap: Pakistan’s Way Forward
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Legal action: Activate IWT mechanisms—Article IX, neutral experts, and Permanent Court of Arbitration.
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Diplomatic campaign: Mobilize allies via World Bank, UN, P5; intensify media outreach.
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Regional cooperation: Collaborate with China, Afghanistan, and other basin nations; water diplomacy via SAARC.
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Domestic policy: Implement National Water Policy 2018—improve efficiency, data systems, climate resilience.
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Innovative protections: Explore legal frameworks such as ‘river personhood’ and engage environmental NGOs globally.
