As global trade tensions escalate under the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies, a pivotal question emerges: Can China capitalize on Trump’s anti-BRICS moves? With fresh developments in 2025, including tariffs targeting BRICS nations and key U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea.
Trump’s Tariff Onslaught and Anti-BRICS Rhetoric
On July 6, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 10% additional tariff on any country “aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS,” a group comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and newer members like Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. This threat, reiterated on July 7, came hours after the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro condemned unilateral tariffs as disruptive to global trade. Trump’s broader tariff strategy includes:
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25% tariffs on exports from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1, 2025, unless trade deals are struck.
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30% tariffs on South Africa, 40% tariffs on Myanmar and Laos, and 25% tariffs on Malaysia, Thailand, and others.
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A prior warning of 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they pursue a currency to rival the U.S. dollar.
These moves reflect Trump’s “America First” policy, aiming to reduce trade deficits and boost U.S. manufacturing. However, they’ve sparked global backlash, market volatility, and concerns about supply chain disruptions. Against this backdrop, China—a BRICS leader and the world’s second-largest economy—stands at a crossroads of risk and opportunity.
How Can China Capitalize on Trump’s Emotional Moves?
Trump’s tariff threats, often impulsive and amplified via social media, are perceived as emotionally driven, creating uncertainty that China could exploit strategically. Here’s how:
Strengthening BRICS Unity
Trump’s blanket condemnation of BRICS as “anti-American” has inadvertently bolstered the bloc’s narrative as a counterweight to U.S. hegemony. At the Rio summit, BRICS leaders, including Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, rejected the “anti-American” label, emphasizing cooperation over confrontation. China, as a BRICS powerhouse, can:
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Lead de-dollarization efforts: By promoting trade in local currencies (e.g., yuan) and piloting BRICS payment systems, China can reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, a move Trump fears. For instance, China’s trade with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) nations reached ¥15 trillion in Q1-Q3 2024, dwarfing its ¥3 trillion with the U.S.
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Deepen BRICS investments: China’s support for initiatives like the BRICS New Development Bank and the proposed Tropical Forests Forever Facility signals its commitment to Global South leadership, attracting nations wary of U.S. tariffs.
Exploiting U.S. Ally Frictions
Trump’s tariffs on allies like Japan and South Korea have strained relationships, creating openings for China. Japan’s trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa emphasized protecting its auto industry, while South Korea’s Trade Ministry scrambled to negotiate. China can:
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Expand market share: As U.S. tariffs raise costs for Japanese and South Korean exports, Chinese goods—already dominant in EVs, batteries, and rare earths—could fill gaps in global markets.
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Offer alternative partnerships: China’s zero-tariff policy for least-developed countries (LDCs) contrasts sharply with Trump’s punitive approach, potentially swaying nations like Bangladesh or Thailand toward Beijing.
Countering with Soft Power
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning framed BRICS as a platform for “openness and inclusiveness,” not confrontation, on July 7, 2025. By maintaining a calm, diplomatic stance, China can:
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Win global sympathy: Trump’s erratic threats, including mistakenly targeting Spain as a BRICS member, undermine U.S. credibility. China’s consistent opposition to “tariff wars” resonates with nations facing U.S. pressure.
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Boost BRI appeal: As U.S. tariffs disrupt supply chains, China’s BRI infrastructure projects offer stability, encouraging nations to align with Beijing.
Analysis: China’s ability to capitalize hinges on its economic resilience and diplomatic finesse. While Trump’s emotional moves create short-term chaos, China’s long-term strategy of fostering multilateralism could cement its role as a global trade leader. However, risks remain, including potential U.S. escalation and domestic economic challenges like a reported recession.
Was Tariff Punishment the Only Solution for BRICS Countries?
Trump’s tariffs aim to deter BRICS from challenging U.S. economic dominance, particularly through de-dollarization. But were tariffs the only—or best—solution? Let’s explore alternatives:
Why Tariffs?
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Economic leverage: The U.S. market is critical for BRICS nations like China (electronics, clothing) and Brazil (coffee). Tariffs threaten to raise costs for consumers and exporters, pressuring compliance.
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Political signaling: Trump’s tariffs reinforce his “America First” base, projecting strength against perceived threats like BRICS’ currency discussions.
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Negotiation tactic: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested tariffs are a bargaining chip, with deals struck with the UK, Vietnam, and a partial agreement with China.
Alternatives to Tariffs
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Diplomatic engagement: The U.S. could have joined BRICS summits as an observer to influence discussions, rather than alienating members with threats. South Africa’s Ramaphosa noted BRICS’ openness to trade deals, suggesting room for dialogue.
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Multilateral reforms: Addressing BRICS’ calls for IMF and WTO reforms could reduce their push for alternatives like a BRICS payment system. For example, China’s advocacy for RMB use stems from U.S.-led sanctions on Russia.
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Economic incentives: Offering trade concessions or investment partnerships could align BRICS nations with U.S. interests. Vietnam’s deal, reducing tariffs from 46% to 20%, shows incentives work.
BRICS’ Response Options
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Retaliation: China warned of counter-tariffs if excluded from supply chains, while Brazil’s Lula advocated for non-dollar trade. However, retaliation risks escalating trade wars.
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Diversification: BRICS nations can deepen intra-bloc trade. India and Indonesia, wary of U.S. tariffs, are exploring $34 billion pacts with U.S. partners but also strengthening BRICS ties.
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Defiance: Lula’s call for a multipolar world and China’s push for digital currencies signal long-term resistance, though a BRICS currency remains unlikely.
Analysis: Tariffs were not the only solution but align with Trump’s confrontational style. Alternatives like diplomacy or incentives could have preserved U.S. influence without destabilizing trade. For BRICS, diversification offers the most sustainable path, with China leading efforts to reduce dollar dependency. However, immediate tariff relief requires pragmatic negotiations, as seen in Vietnam’s case.
Does the EU Support U.S. Policy on BRICS?
The EU, a major U.S. ally, faces a delicate balancing act amid Trump’s anti-BRICS tariffs. Does it support U.S. policy? Let’s examine:
EU’s Position
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Trade negotiations: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen engaged Trump on July 8, 2025, seeking a UK-style framework deal to reduce car tariffs (currently 29.5%) and stabilize sectors like pharmaceuticals. This suggests pragmatic alignment to avoid economic harm.
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Criticism of tariffs: The EU shares BRICS’ concerns about unilateral tariffs disrupting trade. Germany, reliant on car exports, pushed for immediate tariff relief, indicating unease with Trump’s approach.
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Strategic autonomy: The EU has resisted U.S. pressure to fully decouple from China, a BRICS leader. A May 2025 U.S.-China framework deal eased tensions, but the EU continues trade with Beijing, especially in rare earths and semiconductors.
EU-BRICS Dynamics
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Economic ties: The EU trades heavily with BRICS nations, particularly China (EVs, batteries) and India (pharmaceuticals). Trump’s tariffs could raise costs, pushing the EU toward BRICS for alternatives.
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Geopolitical stance: The EU supports a rules-based order via the WTO, aligning with BRICS’ criticism of U.S. tariffs as “inconsistent with WTO rules.” However, it avoids endorsing BRICS’ de-dollarization push, wary of undermining the dollar and euro.
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Climate collaboration: The EU and BRICS share interests in climate initiatives, like Brazil’s Tropical Forests Forever Facility, which China and the UAE back. This contrasts with Trump’s rollback of U.S. climate policies.
EU’s Strategic Calculus
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Avoiding trade war: The EU’s focus on securing a deal by July 9, 2025, shows a desire to mitigate U.S. tariffs’ impact, not endorse anti-BRICS policies.
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Balancing powers: The EU engages China and India to counterbalance U.S. unpredictability. For instance, India’s trade talks with the EU intensified post-tariff threats.
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Hedging bets: By maintaining ties with BRICS while negotiating with the U.S., the EU preserves flexibility in a multipolar world.
Analysis: The EU does not fully support U.S. policy on BRICS, prioritizing economic stability over ideological alignment. Its engagement with Trump is tactical, driven by self-interest, while its trade and climate ties with BRICS suggest a divergence from U.S. goals. China could exploit this by deepening EU-BRICS cooperation, though the EU’s commitment to the dollar limits de-dollarization support.
China’s Path Forward
China stands poised to capitalize on Trump’s anti-BRICS moves by reinforcing BRICS unity, exploiting U.S. ally frictions, and projecting soft power. Its leadership in de-dollarization and BRI expansion could reshape global trade, especially as allies like Japan and South Korea reel from U.S. tariffs. However, tariffs weren’t the only solution for BRICS; diplomacy or incentives could have preserved U.S. influence without chaos. The EU, while negotiating with Trump, diverges from his anti-BRICS stance, offering China opportunities to strengthen ties with Europe.
