Germany, a cornerstone of European stability and economic power, is grappling with a deep-seated fear of war, as evidenced by a July 2025 survey conducted by the Forsa Institute for the RND media group. The poll reveals that only 16% of Germans would “definitely” take up arms to defend their country, while 59% would “probably not” or “definitely not” fight, with reluctance rising to 72% among women. Moreover, 27% believe a military attack on Germany is likely within five years, and 59% expect Germany to provide military aid to a NATO ally under mutual defense obligations. These findings reflect a profound unease about military conflict, rooted in historical trauma, current geopolitical tensions, and skepticism toward government policies.
Historical Context: The Legacy of War and Nazi Trauma
Germany’s fear of war is inseparable from its 20th-century history, particularly the catastrophic consequences of World War I (1914–1918) and World War II (1939–1945). The Nazi regime’s orchestration of the Holocaust, which killed 6 million Jews, and the devastation of German cities left an indelible mark. Post-war denazification, though limited—only 0.17% of 900,000 proceedings in the U.S. zone classified individuals as “major offenders”—shaped a national psyche wary of militarism. A 2015 Forsa Institute survey found that 91% of Germans viewed the Allied victory in WWII as a liberation from Nazism, not a defeat, reflecting a rejection of militaristic nationalism. This “never again” ethos, encapsulated in the phrase “Nie wieder Krieg” (No more war), remains a cultural cornerstone, as noted by historian Stephan Vopel: “In Germany, the watchword is ‘No more war,’ while in Israel it is ‘No more victimization.’”
The Nazi era also fostered fears of retribution, with propaganda fueling perceptions of a “Jewish war” and anticipated Allied vengeance. Post-war fears of Jewish or Allied retaliation, though largely unfounded, delayed Germany’s confrontation with its guilt, as historian Frank Biess argues in German Angst. These historical anxieties persist, influencing public reluctance to engage in or support military actions, as seen in the 2025 Forsa poll’s 59% opposition to taking up arms.
Current Geopolitical Fears: Russia, NATO, and Global Instability
The 2025 Forsa survey highlights contemporary anxieties, with 27% of Germans fearing a military attack within five years, largely driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Germany’s economic recession (0.3% GDP contraction in 2024) and the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government in November 2024 have amplified a sense of crisis. The DeutschlandTrend survey by infratest-dimap for ARD in December 2024 found that 62% of Germans worry about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, alongside economic concerns like inflation (3.1% in July 2025) and job security.
Germany’s NATO commitments further fuel fears. The 2025 Forsa poll’s finding that 59% expect Germany to provide military aid to a NATO ally reflects concerns about entanglement in conflicts like Ukraine, where Germany has supplied €17.8 billion in aid since 2022, including Leopard tanks. Public opinion is split, with 39% believing Germany sends too many arms to Ukraine, per the ARD survey. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, polling at 19% in 2025, capitalizes on these fears, advocating isolationism and stoking distrust in NATO obligations.
Is the German Government Involved in Wars Against the Will of the People?
The German government’s involvement in international conflicts, particularly its military support for Ukraine and Israel, has sparked accusations of acting against public sentiment. In Ukraine, Germany’s role as the second-largest arms supplier after the U.S. aligns with NATO commitments but diverges from public opinion. A 2024 Forsa poll for Stern found that 39% of Germans oppose excessive arms deliveries to Ukraine, and the 2025 Forsa survey’s low willingness to fight (16% “definitely”) suggests a broader aversion to military engagement. The government’s decision to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP (€68 billion in 2025) under Scholz’s Zeitenwende (turning point) policy has faced criticism, with 47% of Germans in a 2024 YouGov poll questioning its necessity amid economic strain.
Regarding Israel, public opposition is even starker. A series of Forsa polls from 2024–2025 reveal growing disapproval of Israel’s military actions in Gaza, with 61% opposing the offensive in June 2024, rising to 74% favoring a tougher stance on Israel by July 2025. Additionally, 60% oppose arms exports to Israel, per an October 2024 Forsa poll, despite the government’s decision to resume weapons supplies worth €326.5 million in 2024 after a brief halt. Critics argue that Chancellor Scholz’s insistence on Germany’s “special responsibility” to Israel, rooted in Holocaust guilt, overrides public sentiment. The decision to continue arms sales despite International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusations of genocide against Israel—following Nicaragua’s case against Germany in March 2024—has fueled perceptions of a disconnect between Berlin and its citizens.
This misalignment is compounded by political fragmentation. The collapse of Scholz’s coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) and the rise of the CDU/CSU (polling at 32% in 2025) and AfD reflect public frustration. Green Party voters (88%) and SPD supporters (77%) strongly favor pressuring Israel, per the July 2025 Forsa poll, yet the government’s pro-Israel stance persists, suggesting a policy driven by historical obligations and international alliances rather than domestic will.
Why Does the German Government Face Accusations of Misleading the Public About Israel’s Actions in Gaza?
Accusations that the German government “lies” about Israel’s actions in Gaza stem from its unwavering support for Israel amid growing public awareness of the humanitarian crisis. Since October 7, 2023, Israel’s offensive has killed over 39,700 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and displaced 85% of Gaza’s population, according to UN and local health authorities. The ICJ’s May 2024 order to halt operations in Rafah heightened scrutiny, yet Scholz has maintained that “there is no genocide in Gaza,” as stated in a September 2024 Tagesspiegel interview. This stance contrasts with public opinion, as 61% of Germans in a January 2024 ZDF poll deemed Israel’s actions “unjustified,” and 59% in a December 2023 Welt poll viewed Israel as “foreign.”
Critics argue that Germany’s Holocaust-driven commitment to Israel distorts its narrative. A 2022 Bertelsmann Stiftung survey found that 36% of Germans equated Israel’s treatment of Palestinians with Nazi policies toward Jews, a view dismissed by officials as antisemitic. The government’s rejection of ICJ genocide accusations and its continued arms exports—despite 68% public opposition in an August 2024 Middle East Monitor poll—fuel perceptions of obfuscation. For instance, Green Party leaders like Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock have pushed for conditional arms exports, but Scholz’s coalition has prioritized strategic ties with Israel, citing historical responsibility over humanitarian concerns.
Public awareness, amplified by social media and protests (e.g., June 2024 Tel Aviv embassy demonstrations), clashes with official rhetoric. The government’s framing of Hamas as the sole aggressor, while downplaying Israel’s blockade and civilian casualties, has led to accusations of selective reporting. This perception is exacerbated by Germany’s historical sensitivity to antisemitism, which critics argue is weaponized to silence criticism of Israel, as noted in a 2023 Institute for Palestine Studies analysis.
Is It a German Tradition ?
The notion that Germany has a “tradition” from the Nazi era of concealing war aims oversimplifies a complex history. During the Third Reich, the Nazi regime used propaganda to obscure the Holocaust’s genocidal intent, framing the war as a defense against a “Jewish conspiracy” or Soviet aggression. Historian Peter Fritzsche, in Between Two Homelands, notes that Nazi propaganda emphasized national unity and racial superiority, masking the “Final Solution” from ordinary Germans. Post-war OMGUS surveys (1945–1949) revealed that many Germans were unaware of the Holocaust’s scale, with some believing concentration camp reports were Allied exaggerations.
However, this lack of awareness was not a deliberate “tradition” but a byproduct of authoritarian control, censorship, and diffused responsibility in a bureaucratic genocide. Post-war, Germany’s democratic institutions and robust education system—emphasizing Holocaust awareness—have sought to counter such obfuscation. A 2023 Ballard Brief study found that 66% of Germans are educated about the Holocaust, though focus on Nazi politics sometimes overshadows antisemitism’s specifics. The 2025 Forsa poll’s low willingness to fight suggests public wariness of military involvement, not ignorance of aims, as Germans are highly informed about global conflicts via media like ARD and ZDF.
Accusations of modern secrecy often relate to Germany’s Middle East policy. The Institute for Palestine Studies argues that Germany’s pro-Israel stance reflects political priorities over moral considerations, a shift from Nazi-era propaganda to a post-reunification realpolitik. However, transparency laws and public debates—such as those over Gaza arms exports—indicate no systematic concealment akin to the Nazi era. Instead, public distrust stems from policy disagreements, as seen in the 74% support for pressuring Israel in the July 2025 Forsa poll.
Broader Implications: Public Sentiment and Policy Challenges
The 2025 Forsa survey underscores a broader German aversion to militarism, driven by historical trauma, economic pressures, and skepticism toward government alignment with NATO and Israel. The 59% reluctance to fight reflects not only fear of war but also distrust in Berlin’s foreign policy, particularly as 75% of East Germans oppose arms to Israel, per the October 2024 Forsa poll. This regional divide, rooted in differing post-reunification experiences, highlights the challenge of unifying public support for defense initiatives.
Germany’s role as a NATO member and EU leader places it in a delicate position. The Zeitenwende policy aims to modernize the Bundeswehr, with €100 billion allocated for 2025–2028, but public support lags, with only 17% favoring a leading global role, per a 2015 Forsa poll. The AfD’s rise exploits this sentiment, framing NATO and Israel support as elitist impositions. Meanwhile, protests and social media amplify calls for a reevaluation of Germany’s Middle East policy, as seen in X posts like @kokchapress’s August 2025 note on 27% fearing an attack.
Recommendations for Bridging the Divide
To address public fears and align policy with sentiment, Germany could:
Enhance Transparency: Publish detailed rationales for arms exports and NATO commitments, addressing humanitarian concerns in Gaza.
Strengthen Education: Expand Holocaust and conflict education to counter misinformation and antisemitic tropes, as 36% of Germans in 2022 equated Israeli policies with Nazi actions.
Engage Communities: Involve citizens in defense policy discussions to build trust, particularly in East Germany.
Balance Alliances: Reassess unconditional support for Israel to align with public calls for humanitarian accountability, as 74% support in July 2025 suggests.
A Nation Haunted by History, Wary of the Future
The majority of Germans fear war due to a confluence of historical trauma, current geopolitical tensions, and a perceived disconnect between government policy and public will. The 2025 Forsa poll’s findings—16% willing to fight, 59% reluctant, and 27% fearing an attack—reflect a society shaped by the Nazi era’s legacy and skeptical of modern military engagements. While the government’s support for Ukraine and Israel aligns with strategic alliances, it diverges from public sentiment, particularly on Gaza, fueling accusations of misleading narratives. Unlike the Nazi era’s deliberate obfuscation, today’s tensions stem from policy disagreements, not systematic secrecy. By fostering transparency and public engagement, Germany can address these fears, balancing its historical responsibilities with a forward-looking approach to global stability.
Sources:
- Forsa Institute for RND, “Only 16% of Germans Would Definitely Fight,” August 4, 2025
- Anadolu Agency, “Majority of Germans Oppose Israel’s War on Gaza,” June 4, 2024
- Middle East Monitor, “60% of Germans Oppose Military Support for Israel,” October 22, 2024
- Bertelsmann Stiftung, “Germany and Israel Today,” 2015
- DW, “Germans Fear Russia and Political Instability,” December 20, 2024
- Institute for Palestine Studies, “Deciphering Germany’s Pro-Israel Consensus,” 2015
- The Times of Israel, “Poll: 1 in 3 Germans Say Israel Treating Palestinians Like Nazis Did Jews,” 2022
