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Russian Mercenary Chief Prigozhin’s Bid to Reestablish Wagner Group in Africa: Think Tank Analysis

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Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is making strategic moves to re-establish the Wagner Group’s influence in Africa, according to an assessment by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Recent reports suggest that Prigozhin and Wagner representatives have arrived in Mali, possibly to explore regional security dynamics and potential cooperation with Niger. This article delves into the details of these developments and their implications for Wagner Group’s future operations in Africa.

 

Wagner Group’s African Expansion

 

Over the past decade, the Wagner Group has significantly expanded its presence across Africa, engaging in activities ranging from security provision to combat involvement. The group’s involvement has spanned various African countries, including Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Mozambique. Wagner’s contributions have encompassed providing security assistance to local governments, training indigenous forces, and direct participation in combat scenarios.

 

Prigozhin’s Strategic Move

ISW’s assessment highlights Prigozhin’s attempt to breathe new life into the Wagner Group’s African ventures. Recent footage and reports suggest that Prigozhin is actively promoting the group’s presence in Africa, potentially to attract contracts with African nations. One possible motive behind this effort is to secure a contract with Niger, a move that could bolster Wagner’s operational autonomy and ensure its independence from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

the Wagner Group’s future in Africa hangs in the balance.

Wagner’s Challenges and Survival

ISW acknowledges indications of internal strife within the Wagner Group’s leadership, potentially undermining its coherence. While reports of internal conflicts may hold some truth, it’s plausible that Russian authorities are amplifying these challenges to discredit Prigozhin and the Wagner Group. However, if Prigozhin successfully secures contracts for Wagner in Africa and deploys personnel before the Russian MoD can intervene, the group could retain a degree of operational independence.

Over the past decade, the Wagner Group has significantly expanded its presence across Africa, engaging in activities ranging from security provision to combat involvement.

Geopolitical Implications

The battle for influence in Africa between Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and the Russian MoD underscores a larger geopolitical struggle. Prigozhin’s efforts to secure African contracts not only aim to maintain Wagner’s independence but also challenge the Russian MoD’s authority over the group. If Wagner can establish a foothold in Africa before the MoD’s intervention, it could disrupt the MoD’s attempts to assimilate or eliminate the group.

 

Conclusion

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s current endeavors to rejuvenate the Wagner Group’s presence in Africa highlight the complexities of the mercenary landscape and its geopolitical implications. As Prigozhin navigates the delicate balance between securing contracts, maintaining independence, and contending with internal conflicts, the Wagner Group’s future in Africa hangs in the balance. The outcomes of these developments will likely shape the dynamics of Russian influence and operations in the African continent in the coming months.

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