Japan finds itself teetering on the edge of a seismic shift. Once a beacon of political predictability, this island nation is now wrestling with whispers of instability, fueled by a potent cocktail of xenophobia, tourist fatigue, and a faltering economy. The recent surge of the far-right Sanseito party, clinching 15 seats in the upper house election on July 20, 2025, has rattled the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which lost its majority alongside Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s grip on power.
The Triple Threat: Unpacking the Causes
Xenophobia’s Rising Tide
Japan’s homogenous society, where 98.5% of its 125 million people identify as ethnically Japanese, has long shaped its cultural identity. Yet, with foreign residents hitting a record 3.77 million by late 2024—an 11% jump from the prior year—tensions are simmering. Sanseito’s “Japanese First” mantra, echoing Trump’s “America First,” taps into fears of cultural dilution and economic strain. A 54-year-old volunteer confessed to the Asahi Shimbun his irrational fear of foreigners “going on a rampage,” despite no personal encounters. This sentiment, amplified by social media narratives linking immigrants to crime (though stats show foreigners commit fewer offenses proportionally), has fueled a backlash. The LDP’s promise of “zero illegal foreigners” and a new taskforce to curb foreign “disorder” signal a pivot to appease these anxieties, risking a deeper xenophobic divide.
Aversion to Tourists: The Overcrowding Backlash
The weak yen has lured nearly 37 million tourists in 2024, a boon for a tourism sector raking in ¥5.3 trillion. But this influx has soured locals. In Fujikawaguchiko, residents erected a screen to block Mount Fuji views after tourists flouted traffic rules for selfies, leaving trash in their wake. A 65-year-old local, Kazuhiko Iwama, lamented the danger and disrespect. In Kyoto, overcrowded trains and noise pollution have frayed community ties. Sanseito has seized this discontent, blurring the line between tourist misbehavior and immigration woes, spreading “false information” about foreign crime, per Jeffrey Hall of Kanda University. This tourist aversion, once a minor grievance, now stokes political unrest as voters demand control over their spaces.
Deteriorating Economic Situation:
Economic woes are the heartbeat of this instability. Inflation has doubled rice prices to over ¥4,000 for a 5kg bag since 2024, exacerbated by a poor 2023 harvest and a May 2025 earthquake triggering panic buying. Momoko Abe, a 36-year-old mother, called the price hike “shocking,” while 65-year-old Watanabe Takeshi noted government control limits relief. Stagnant wages and a sluggish economy, with youth unemployment ticking up to 4.5% in June 2025 per Japan’s Statistics Bureau, have left households reeling. Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s vows to stabilize supply fall short as prices linger high. This economic distress, coupled with an aging population reliant on foreign labor, creates a paradox that Sanseito exploits, promising tax cuts over immigrant support.
How These Elements Fuel Political Instability
Xenophobia as a Political Catalyst
Xenophobia has morphed from a social undercurrent into a political weapon. Sanseito’s founder, Sohei Kamiya, a former supermarket manager turned populist, leverages YouTube conspiracies and “deep state” rhetoric to rally a frustrated base. His June 2025 claim that foreigners overburden social security, debunked by Welfare Minister Takamaro Fukuoka, resonates with voters feeling displaced. The LDP’s loss of its upper house majority on July 20, 2025, reflects this shift, with young voters like Eriko Harada decrying the status quo. This polarization threatens governance, as moderate policies clash with far-right demands, destabilizing the LDP’s 70-year reign.
Tourist Aversion Amplifying Discontent
The tourist boom, while lucrative, has bred resentment that Sanseito channels into political capital. Incidents like the Meiji Jingu graffiti arrest in November 2024 and Fujikawaguchiko’s screen saga highlight a cultural clash with Japan’s omotenashi hospitality ethos. This aversion, mislinked to immigration, erodes trust in the LDP’s tourism-driven growth strategy. As locals feel sidelined, Sanseito’s call for stricter controls gains traction, fracturing political consensus and pushing the nation toward volatility.
Economic Decline Undermining Stability
The rice crisis and economic stagnation have eroded public faith in the LDP. With inflation outpacing wage growth—real wages fell 1.2% year-on-year in June 2025 per the Bank of Japan—voters turn to Sanseito’s populist promises. The party’s focus on domestic welfare over foreign aid taps into economic insecurity, splitting the electorate. This economic discontent, compounded by an aging workforce (28% over 65 by 2025), pressures the government to balance growth and nativism, risking policy paralysis and political upheaval.
Are Japanese Traditions Disappearing?
Amid this turmoil, a poignant question emerges: are Japanese traditions fading? The Ainu and Ryukyuan cultures, recognized since 2008, struggle against assimilation, with younger generations drifting from rituals. Tourist behavior—disrespecting temple etiquette or snapping photos at Nanzo-in Temple—threatens cultural sanctity. Yet, a resurgence of artisans, as noted in a 2025 Tokyo Foundation report, hints at revival. The rice crisis, hitting a dietary cornerstone, also challenges traditional foodways. While globalization and tourism strain these roots, the passion for preservation—seen in local efforts to teach customs—suggests resilience, though the balance remains fragile.
What Impact Could This Have on Japan’s Future?
Political Realignment
Sanseito’s rise could force a rightward shift, pressuring the LDP to adopt harsher immigration stances or risk further losses. If Ishiba resigns, a leadership vacuum might empower populists, destabilizing decades of continuity. Posts on X reflect a split sentiment—some cheer change, others fear chaos—indicating a polarized future.
Economic Ripple Effects
Economic instability could deter investment if xenophobia and tourist curbs shrink labor and revenue. A 2025 World Economic Forum report warns that overtourism controls might cut ¥1 trillion from tourism GDP by 2030 unless balanced with regional dispersal. Japan’s global economic clout could wane if internal discord persists.
Cultural and Social Shifts
A backlash against foreigners might deepen isolationism, risking cultural stagnation. Yet, it could also spark a cultural renaissance if traditions are actively defended. The youth’s hunger for change, voiced at Sanseito rallies, might reshape societal norms, blending tradition with modernity in unpredictable ways.
International Standing
As Asia-Pacific tensions rise—China’s 2025 naval drills near the Senkaku Islands loom large—Japan’s instability could weaken its U.S. alliance, per a July 2025 Pentagon briefing. A fragmented government might struggle to counter regional threats, altering global dynamics.
Japan stands at a precipice, where xenophobia, tourist aversion, and economic woes weave a narrative of potential instability. Sanseito’s ascent, born from these pressures, challenges the LDP’s legacy, while traditions teeter between preservation and loss. The future hinges on whether Japan can harness this discontent for renewal or succumb to division. As of July 28, 2025, the world watches a nation redefine itself—one rice bag, one rally, one vote at a time.
