As global travel policies evolve, the U.S. Department of State’s visa bond pilot program, effective August 20, 2025, has sparked discussions about which countries might face similar restrictions in the future. With Pakistan’s significant travel volume to the United States and its overstay rates highlighted in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) Fiscal Year 2023 Entry/Exit Overstay Report.
Understanding the U.S. Visa Bond Pilot Program
The U.S. Department of State introduced a Temporary Final Rule (TFR) under INA Section 221(g)(3), mandating visa bonds for nationals of select countries applying for B1/B2 (business or pleasure) visas. As of August 5, 2025, Malawi and Zambia are the only countries subject to this requirement due to their high B1/B2 overstay rates, as reported in the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) FY 2023 Overstay Report. Eligible applicants from these countries must post bonds of $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000, determined during the visa interview, and submit DHS Form I-352 via Pay.gov. Compliance involves arriving and departing through designated ports (Boston Logan, JFK, or Washington Dulles International Airports) and adhering to the authorized period of stay. Non-compliance, such as overstaying or applying for asylum, results in bond forfeiture.
The bond program aims to deter overstays by imposing financial consequences, with funds returned upon compliance. This pilot serves as a testing ground for potential expansion to other countries with high overstay rates, raising questions about Pakistan’s vulnerability.
Pakistan’s Overstay Statistics: A Closer Look
The FY 2023 Overstay Report provides critical data on nonimmigrant overstay rates for travelers admitted via air and sea ports of entry (POEs). For Pakistan, the report details:
B1/B2 Visitors (Business or Pleasure): Out of 47,540 expected departures in FY 2022, Pakistan recorded 3,500 total overstays, with a Suspected In-Country Overstay rate of 7.04% and a Total Overstay rate of 7.36%. This is notably high compared to the overall non-Visa Waiver Program (VWP) B1/B2 overstay rate of 7.18%.
Student and Exchange Visitors (F, M, J Visas): For 8,824 expected departures, Pakistan had 609 total overstays, with a Suspected In-Country Overstay rate of 6.20% and a Total Overstay rate of 6.90%, compared to the non-VWP student/exchange visitor rate of 3.67%.
Other In-Scope Nonimmigrant Classes: With 3,206 expected departures, Pakistan recorded 376 total overstays, with a Suspected In-Country Overstay rate of 11.07% and a Total Overstay rate of 11.73%, against a non-VWP rate of 2.99%.
Comparing these figures to Malawi and Zambia, the current visa bond countries:
Malawi (FY 2022, B1/B2): 509 expected departures, 126 total overstays, with a Suspected In-Country Overstay rate of 24.17% and a Total Overstay rate of 24.75%.
Zambia (FY 2022, B1/B2): 1,090 expected departures, 165 total overstays, with a Suspected In-Country Overstay rate of 14.68% and a Total Overstay rate of 15.14%.
Pakistan’s B1/B2 overstay rate (7.36%) is lower than Malawi’s (24.75%) and Zambia’s (15.14%) but remains significant within the non-VWP cohort. Its student and other nonimmigrant overstay rates are also elevated, suggesting a pattern of non-compliance that could draw scrutiny.
Why Pakistan Could Face Visa Bond Restrictions
Several factors increase the likelihood of Pakistan being included in future visa bond expansions:
High Overstay Rates: Pakistan’s B1/B2 overstay rate of 7.36% is close to the non-VWP average (7.18%) but exceeds the threshold that prompted action against Malawi and Zambia. The report indicates that countries with overstay rates significantly above the norm are prioritized for enforcement measures like visa bonds.
Volume of Travelers: Pakistan’s 47,540 expected B1/B2 departures in FY 2022 reflect a substantial travel volume, unlike Malawi (509) and Zambia (1,090). High travel volumes combined with elevated overstay rates amplify the perceived risk to U.S. immigration authorities, as the absolute number of overstays (3,500) is significant.
Regional and Geopolitical Context: Pakistan’s complex geopolitical situation, including economic challenges and migration pressures, may contribute to higher overstay rates. The DHS report notes that global events, such as economic instability, can drive non-compliance, potentially flagging Pakistan for closer monitoring.
Precedent for Non-VWP Countries: The visa bond program targets non-VWP countries, as VWP nations face stricter overstay thresholds (2% or higher triggers public awareness campaigns). Pakistan, as a non-VWP country, falls within the program’s scope, and its overstay rates align with those of other high-risk nations.
Factors That Might Mitigate Restrictions
Despite the risks, several factors could delay or prevent Pakistan’s inclusion in the visa bond program:
Diplomatic Relations: The U.S. and Pakistan maintain strategic ties, particularly in counterterrorism and regional stability. Imposing visa bonds could strain these relations, especially if perceived as punitive by Pakistani authorities or citizens.
Data Improvements: The FY 2023 report highlights DHS’s efforts to refine overstay data through biometric and biographic enhancements. By May 1, 2024, Pakistan’s FY 2022 Suspected In-Country Overstay numbers likely decreased due to confirmed departures or status adjustments, as seen globally (e.g., FY 2022’s 795,167 overstays dropped to 505,852 by November 2023). Improved tracking could lower Pakistan’s reported rates.
Economic and Travel Contributions: Pakistani travelers contribute to the U.S. economy through tourism, business, and education. Restricting visas could reduce these benefits, prompting caution from U.S. policymakers.
Pilot Program Scope: The visa bond program is a pilot, currently limited to two countries. Expanding it to a major travel partner like Pakistan would require significant administrative and diplomatic coordination, potentially delaying implementation.
Broader Implications for Pakistani Travelers
If Pakistan were added to the visa bond program, the implications would be multifaceted:
Financial Burden: Bonds of $5,000–$15,000 could deter many Pakistani applicants, particularly those with limited financial resources, reducing travel for tourism, business, or family visits.
Travel Restrictions: The requirement to use specific ports of entry (BOS, JFK, IAD) could complicate travel plans, as many Pakistanis enter via other hubs like Chicago or Los Angeles.
Compliance Challenges: The risk of bond forfeiture for overstaying or applying for asylum could discourage legitimate travelers while failing to deter those intent on overstaying, as seen in high-risk countries like Venezuela (44.27% total overstay rate in FY 2022).
Public Perception: Visa bonds could be viewed as discriminatory, potentially sparking backlash in Pakistan and among diaspora communities, impacting U.S.-Pakistan relations.
Future Outlook: What Lies Ahead for Pakistan?
Predicting whether Pakistan will face visa bond restrictions requires weighing current trends against U.S. policy priorities:
Short-Term (2025–2026): The pilot program’s limited scope suggests Pakistan is unlikely to face immediate inclusion unless its overstay rates spike significantly in FY 2024 or 2025 data. The DHS’s focus on refining data collection and enforcement (e.g., biometric exit systems) may prioritize monitoring over new restrictions.
Medium-Term (2027–2030): If Pakistan’s overstay rates remain above the non-VWP average or if travel volumes grow without improved compliance, the U.S. may consider visa bonds, especially if the pilot program proves effective in Malawi and Zambia. Public awareness campaigns, as used for VWP countries with overstay rates above 2%, could be a preliminary step.
Long-Term: Broader adoption of biometric exit systems and data-sharing agreements (e.g., with Canada for land borders) could reduce overstay rates globally, potentially mitigating the need for bonds. However, persistent economic or political instability in Pakistan could keep overstay rates elevated, increasing scrutiny.
Recommendations for Pakistani Travelers
To navigate potential future restrictions, Pakistani travelers should:
Ensure Compliance: Adhere strictly to visa terms, departing before the authorized period expires to avoid overstay records.
Monitor Policy Updates: Stay informed via the U.S. Embassy or travel.state.gov for changes to visa policies affecting Pakistan.
Use Authorized Channels: If bonds are implemented, pay only through Pay.gov as directed by consular officers to avoid scams.
Plan Travel Routes: Prepare for potential port-of-entry restrictions by choosing flights through designated airports.
A Balancing Act for U.S. Policy and Pakistani Travelers
Pakistan’s elevated overstay rates, particularly for B1/B2 visas (7.36%) and other nonimmigrant categories, position it as a candidate for future U.S. visa bond restrictions, especially as the DHS prioritizes enforcement against non-VWP countries. However, diplomatic considerations, data improvements, and the pilot program’s limited scope may delay such measures. For Pakistani travelers, maintaining compliance and staying informed will be crucial to navigating an evolving U.S. immigration landscape. As the visa bond pilot unfolds, its outcomes in Malawi and Zambia will likely shape whether countries like Pakistan face similar restrictions, balancing enforcement with international relations and economic ties.
