French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement on July 24, 2025, that France will formally recognize the State of Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September has sparked intense international debate. This decision has drawn sharp criticism from the United States and Israel, raising questions about France’s resolve, its foreign policy direction, and the broader implications for the two-state solution.
France’s Bold Move and Immediate Backlash
Macron’s pledge to recognize Palestine, articulated in a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, positions France as the first major Western power to take this step. The move aligns with France’s long-standing advocacy for a two-state solution, as outlined in UN resolutions like 181 and 242, which call for an independent, viable Palestinian state alongside Israel. Macron emphasized that this recognition aims to foster “a just and lasting peace in the Middle East.”
However, the announcement has provoked strong rebukes. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled it a “reckless decision” that “serves Hamas propaganda” and undermines peace efforts, referencing the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed approximately 1,200 people in southern Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a “betrayal by a close ally,” warning that it risks creating “another Iranian proxy” and “rewards terror.” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz echoed this, describing the move as “a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism.”
These criticisms frame France’s decision as legitimizing Hamas, a group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., EU, and Israel. Yet, Macron’s announcement aligns with growing international support for Palestinian statehood, with 142 UN member states already recognizing or planning to recognize Palestine, including recent moves by Spain, Norway, Ireland, and Mexico.
Will France Be Intimidated by U.S. and Israeli Threats?
France’s decision comes amid heightened tensions, with the U.S. and Israel leveraging diplomatic and rhetorical pressure to dissuade participation in a UN conference on the two-state solution, co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia. A U.S. cable warned that countries supporting “anti-Israel actions” at the conference could face diplomatic consequences, a move some European diplomats described as “bullying.” Israel has similarly lobbied against the conference, arguing it rewards Hamas.
Despite this, France appears unlikely to back down. Macron’s announcement reflects a strategic shift, driven by Israel’s intensified military operations in Gaza—resulting in nearly 60,000 Palestinian deaths and a humanitarian crisis—and escalating settler violence in the West Bank. France’s push to recognize Palestine is also a response to the perceived failure of decades-long peace processes, including the stalled Qatar-mediated talks that collapsed in July 2025.
France’s resolve is bolstered by domestic and international factors. As home to Europe’s largest Jewish and Muslim communities, France faces internal pressure to balance its historical support for Israel with growing public sympathy for Palestinians. Internationally, Macron has garnered support from allies like Spain, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, which praised the decision as a step toward peace.
However, the U.S. holds significant leverage as Israel’s primary military and diplomatic backer. The Biden administration historically supported a two-state solution, but the Trump administration’s second term has shown ambivalence, with actions like discouraging participation in the UN conference suggesting a retreat from this framework. France’s ability to withstand this pressure will depend on its diplomatic agility and European alliances.
Has the U.S. Abandoned the Two-Nation Theory?
The U.S. has long endorsed a two-state solution, as articulated in policies from the Clinton-era Oslo Accords to Biden’s 2022 National Security Strategy, which advocated for “two states along the 1967 lines, with mutually agreed swaps.” However, recent actions under President Trump’s second term raise doubts about this commitment.
Trump’s first term saw policies that undermined the two-state framework, such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the U.S. embassy there, actions that Biden only partially reversed. The U.S. veto of Palestine’s UN membership bid in April 2024 and its opposition to the upcoming UN conference suggest a shift toward prioritizing Israel’s security over Palestinian statehood. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has expressed skepticism about an independent Palestinian state, aligning with Israeli concerns about security threats.
Public opinion in the U.S. reflects growing division. A 2025 Pew Research Center survey found that only 46% of Americans believe a two-state solution is possible, down from 52% in 2023. Democrats are more supportive (56%) than Republicans (36%), indicating a partisan split that could influence policy under Trump.
While the U.S. has not explicitly abandoned the two-nation theory, its actions—opposing unilateral recognition of Palestine and prioritizing Israel’s security—suggest a de facto retreat, complicating France’s efforts at the UNGA.
How Much Pressure Can France Withstand from the U.S.?
France’s ability to resist U.S. pressure hinges on its economic, diplomatic, and strategic position. As a G7 member and a permanent UN Security Council member, France wields significant global influence. Its economy, while not as dominant as the U.S., supports its autonomy in foreign policy. However, the U.S. can exert pressure through trade, security cooperation, and NATO dynamics, where France relies on American support.
France has faced similar pressure before. In 2024, it navigated U.S. objections to co-hosting the UN conference, which was postponed and downgraded due to American and Israeli influence. Yet, Macron’s persistence—evidenced by his lobbying of European nations like the UK and Netherlands to recognize Palestine—shows resilience. Support from EU allies like Spain and non-Western powers like Russia and China, which back Palestinian statehood, further strengthens France’s position.
The U.S. cable threatening diplomatic consequences may deter smaller nations, but France’s stature and Macron’s domestic mandate to address the Gaza crisis make capitulation unlikely. Still, sustained U.S. opposition could limit France’s ability to rally broader Western support, potentially isolating its initiative at the UNGA.
Is France’s Changing Foreign Policy Under U.S. Pressure Against Its National Integrity?
France’s recognition of Palestine aligns with its historical commitment to international law and human rights, as seen in its support for UN resolutions advocating Palestinian self-determination. This move is not a radical departure but a reaffirmation of France’s stance against unilateral actions, like Israel’s settlement expansion, which it deems illegal under international law.
However, yielding to U.S. pressure could undermine France’s national integrity by signaling a subordination of its principles to external influence. France’s foreign policy has long balanced support for Israel with advocacy for Palestinian rights, as evidenced by its 1974 vote recognizing the PLO at the UN. Backtracking now could erode its credibility as an independent actor and alienate domestic constituencies, particularly its Muslim population, which has mobilized against Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Conversely, resisting U.S. pressure risks straining bilateral ties and France’s role in Western alliances. The U.S. has historically shaped France’s Middle East policy, notably during the 1967 Six-Day War, when France aligned with U.S.-led arms policies. A firm stance on Palestine could enhance France’s global leadership but invite economic or diplomatic repercussions from Washington.
UNGA Scenarios and Possibilities
At the UNGA in September 2025, several scenarios could unfold:
France Leads a Coalition: France could rally European and Arab states to recognize Palestine, building on the 142 countries that already do so. Support from Spain, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as BRICS nations like Russia and China, could create momentum, pressuring Israel to re-engage in peace talks.
U.S. and Israeli Counterpressure: The U.S. could use its veto power in the UN Security Council to block Palestine’s full membership, as it did in 2011 and 2024. Israel’s lobbying may deter some nations from supporting France, limiting the initiative’s impact.
Compromise Proposal: France might propose a phased recognition tied to ceasefire agreements or renewed negotiations, addressing U.S. and Israeli concerns while advancing Palestinian statehood. This could align with Canada’s call for a ceasefire and governance reforms in Gaza.
Regional Escalation: Ongoing conflicts involving Lebanon, Yemen, or Iran could overshadow the UNGA, reducing focus on Palestine. Israel’s blockade and reported famine conditions in Gaza, condemned by the UN and media, may amplify calls for recognition but also harden Israeli opposition.
National Integrity?
France’s decision to recognize Palestine at the UNGA reflects a bold attempt to revive the two-state solution amid a worsening Gaza crisis. While facing significant pressure from the U.S. and Israel, France’s diplomatic clout, European alliances, and domestic imperatives suggest it will not be easily intimidated. The U.S. appears to be retreating from the two-nation theory, prioritizing Israel’s security, which complicates France’s initiative. Maintaining its stance without succumbing to U.S. pressure aligns with France’s national integrity and its commitment to international law, but it risks straining transatlantic ties. The UNGA will be a critical test of France’s resolve and the global community’s commitment to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
