U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for the European Union (EU) to impose 50% to 100% tariffs on China has spotlighted transatlantic tensions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. While Trump views these tariffs as a tool to pressure Beijing and weaken its influence over Moscow, the EU has firmly resisted, citing legal, political, and economic hurdles.
Why the EU Avoids a Trade War with China
The EU’s stance against a trade war stems from a calculated risk assessment, prioritizing stability over confrontation. As of September 2025, EU-China trade remains massive, with EU exports to China reaching approximately $227.17 billion in 2024 (projected to hold steady or grow slightly in 2025 amid recovery efforts), while imports from China hit $560.36 billion, creating a significant trade deficit. China is the EU’s second-largest trading partner, with total bilateral trade topping €700 billion annually, fueling sectors like automotive, technology, and energy.
Legal Barriers: Tariffs vs. Sanctions
The EU strictly differentiates tariffs (trade tools for market fairness) from sanctions (foreign policy instruments). Tariffs require months-long investigations compliant with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, unlike Trump’s flexible use of duties for geopolitical leverage. Blanket 100% tariffs would violate WTO norms, risking global trade system collapse. German MEP Engin Eroglu warned that such measures “would undermine the global trading system and are more likely to harm the European economy than to weaken Russia.”
Political Divisions: Lack of Consensus
Internal rifts hinder bold action. In 2024, EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (7.8% to 35.3%) split members: 10 in favor, 12 abstaining, and five (including Germany) opposing due to Beijing’s lobbying. Despite accusing China of enabling Russia’s war by supplying 80% of weapon components, the EU hasn’t activated tools like the Anti-Circumvention Tool, which needs unanimous approval. A trade war could exacerbate populism and economic nationalism within the bloc.
Economic Risks: Retaliation and Vulnerability
China’s history of retaliation looms large. After EU EV tariffs, Beijing probed EU pork, dairy, and brandy exports, and restricted rare earth elements vital for EU industries—prompting Ursula von der Leyen to label it “blackmail.” In 2025, China’s imports totaled $1.45 trillion in the first seven months, giving it leverage to disrupt global supply chains. With EU growth sluggish at 0.9% projected for 2025, a war could trigger inflation, job losses, and stagnation.
Possibilities: If the EU escalates, China could impose broader export bans, hitting EU tech and defense sectors. Non-escalation maintains “de-risking” via targeted measures, but risks U.S. backlash. Effects include diverted trade flows, with Chinese goods flooding other markets, and potential transatlantic rifts weakening NATO unity.
Why Is Trump Increasing Pressure?
Trump’s push, publicized via social media in September 2025, aims to isolate Russia by targeting its oil buyers like China and India, which he claims gives Beijing a “grip” over Moscow. Amid stalled Ukraine peace talks, Trump links tariffs to ending Russian oil purchases, framing it as a joint NATO-EU strategy. Recent meetings, like U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with EU officials, highlight coordination, but Trump’s “maximalist demands” are seen as unrealistic. Experts like Maria Shagina argue it’s a tactic to avoid solo U.S. action, with deadlines passing without follow-through. This pressure extends Trump’s trade war legacy, where U.S.-China tariffs peaked at 145% before a 2025 truce reduced them to 30%.
Is the EU Capable of Imposing 100% Tariffs on China?
Legally, yes—the European Commission can propose tariffs, but implementation requires member state support and WTO compliance. However, unanimity for secondary sanctions-like measures is elusive, as seen with dormant tools. Politically, it’s improbable: EU officials privately dismiss it as “no way,” prioritizing rules over Trump’s unilateralism. Capability exists technically, but consensus and retaliation fears make it unfeasible in 2025.
EU Impact
A 100% tariff would devastate the EU economy. Imports from China could plummet, raising costs for consumers and industries reliant on affordable goods, potentially adding 0.5-1% to inflation. Retaliation could slash EU exports by 8-66%, worsening the €400 billion trade deficit. Sectors like automotive (e.g., Germany’s €20 billion+ exports to China) and tech would suffer supply disruptions. Broader effects: Global growth dips to 3% in 2025, job losses in export-dependent regions, and strained alliances. Positive? Minimal, like reshoring, but outweighed by harms.
How Can the US Benefit from a Europe-China Tariff War?
The U.S. could gain through trade diversion: Redirected Chinese exports boost U.S. market share in Europe, while EU retaliation opens doors for American goods. Trump’s tariffs already reshored production, adding $1300 per U.S. household in taxes but stimulating domestic manufacturing. Geopolitically, a weakened EU-China tie strengthens U.S. leverage over both, aiding negotiations like TikTok deals. However, risks include global recession spillovers, with U.S. GDP growth potentially dropping 0.5% annually.
Navigating a Precarious Balance
The EU’s aversion to a China trade war reflects a pragmatic defense of its interests amid Trump’s aggressive playbook. While possibilities range from limited de-risking to full escalation, effects could reshape global trade. As of September 17, 2025, the bloc opts for dialogue, but U.S. pressure may force tough choices.
