In the volatile landscape of Middle East geopolitics, a seismic question dominates headlines: Did Arab countries remove America from the list of trusted friends? Recent events, including Israel’s unprecedented strike on Qatari soil and the swift signing of a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, signal a profound realignment. As Arab states grapple with escalating threats from Israel amid the ongoing Israel-Iran war, traditional U.S. alliances appear to be fraying, replaced by outreach to non-Western powers like Pakistan and Turkey.
The Erosion of Trust:
Under Donald Trump’s second term, U.S. Middle East policy has pivoted toward “transactionalism”—prioritizing economic deals over ideological commitments like democracy promotion. Trump’s May 2025 Gulf tour, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, secured AI and energy pacts worth billions, but it masked deeper fissures. A Middle East Institute report card from July 2025 graded U.S. policy a “C-” for Syria, highlighting a “biggest shift” in alliances that left Gulf states feeling exposed.
The tipping point came with Israel’s June 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, followed by U.S. involvement in bombing hardened facilities. While the U.S. framed this as preemptive against an “existential threat,” Arab states viewed it as enabling Israeli aggression without accountability. By September 2025, Israel’s attack on Qatar—targeting alleged Hamas-linked sites—ignited outrage. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) activated its joint defense mechanism on September 16, 2025, declaring an attack on one member an attack on all.
This isn’t outright “removal” from trusted friends but a diversification. Saudi Arabia’s defense pact with Pakistan, signed amid “panic over Israel’s attack on Qatar,” underscores a hedge against U.S. unreliability. As one X post from September 17, 2025, noted: “Will Pak-Saudi defense agreement cause Israel sleepless nights?” Qatar and others echoed this at the Arab-Islamic Summit in Doha, pushing for an “Arab NATO” involving Pakistan and Turkey.
In short, Arab countries US relations 2025 are cooling from strategic partner to transactional vendor, driven by perceived U.S. bias toward Israel.
Effects on Middle East Security:
The Arab countries US relations shift 2025 has profound implications for Middle East security. Historically, U.S. security guarantees—via arms sales and bases—deterred aggression and stabilized oil flows. But with trust eroded, Gulf states are forging new pacts, risking a fragmented security architecture.
- Heightened Escalation Risks: Israel’s Qatar strike, condemned by Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif as requiring an “Arab Islamic task force,” could spiral if unaddressed. A UN Under-Secretary-General warned on September 12, 2025, that it risks a “new and perilous chapter.”
- Alliance Reconfiguration: Saudi-Qatar rivalry softens as both eye Turkey and Pakistan for deterrence. This multipolarity could deter Israel short-term but invites proxy conflicts, as seen in Syria where Saudi-Qatari competition persists despite joint anti-Israel rhetoric.
- Economic Fallout: Oil prices spiked 15% post-Qatar strike, per September 2025 Bloomberg data, threatening global stability if U.S. mediation falters.
Overall, Middle East security now hinges on ad-hoc coalitions, amplifying volatility in a region already scarred by the 2025 Gaza ceasefire’s fragile truce.
Agreement with Muslim Nuclear Power Pakistan
Enter Pakistan: the world’s only Muslim nuclear-armed state, now a linchpin in Arab strategy. The September 17, 2025, Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement—signed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and PM Shehbaz Sharif—pledges joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and mutual aid against “external threats.” X users buzzed: “Pakistan, the only Islamic nuclear power, signed defense agreements with Saudi Arabia amid Arab countries’ panic.”
Is this a “decisive response” to Israel? Potentially yes. Pakistan has condemned Israel’s “aggression against Iran” at the UNSC on June 20, 2025, and warned of “forceful response” to threats against Muslim states. Amid Israel-Iran tensions, U.S. talks with Pakistan in June 2025 aimed at “durable peace,” but Islamabad’s alignment with the “Ummah” (Muslim community) prioritizes deterrence.
Pakistan’s role could embolden Arab states, signaling that Israeli strikes on Qatar or Iran won’t go unanswered. However, it’s no silver bullet—Pakistan’s economy strains under IMF loans, limiting expeditionary power. Still, as one analyst noted in July 2025, Pakistan views the “India-Israel nexus” as a threat, making anti-Israel solidarity strategic.
Middle East & the Threat of Nuclear War
The specter of Middle East nuclear war threat 2025 looms larger than ever. Israel’s June 13, 2025, “Operation Rising Lion” targeted Iran’s Natanz facility, with U.S. strikes following on buried sites. Iran vowed a “crushing response” on September 17, 2025, while Gulf states fret over nuclear contamination—CNN reported “anxiety grips” the region on June 19, 2025.
Pakistan’s involvement amplifies risks. Officials denied Iranian claims of a “nuclear response” to Israeli strikes in June 2025, but its doctrine emphasizes “immediate response” to threats. Israel’s undeclared arsenal and Pakistan’s growing stockpile could trigger escalation if proxies clash. SIPRI’s June 2025 Yearbook warns of a “dangerous new nuclear arms race.” A DHS bulletin on June 22, 2025, cited the Iran conflict as heightening U.S. threats, underscoring global stakes.
Without de-escalation, the region teeters on the brink—Israel’s “existential fears” leaked in September 2025 transcripts reveal plans to target Iran’s leadership.
Military & Nuclear Capabilities of Pakistan and Israel
To gauge the balance, let’s compare Pakistan military capabilities and Israel nuclear capabilities using 2025 data from Global Firepower, SIPRI, and the Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor.
| Aspect | Pakistan (2025) | Israel (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Global Military Rank | 12th (PwrIndx: 0.2513) | 17th (PwrIndx: 0.2598, est.) |
| Active Personnel | 654,000 | 170,000 (plus 465,000 reserves) |
| Defense Budget | $10.4 billion | $24.4 billion |
| Key Assets | 1,400 tanks; 560 combat aircraft; developing long-range missiles (e.g., Shaheen-III, 2,750 km range) | 2,200 tanks; 612 combat aircraft (F-35s); Iron Dome/Iron Beam defenses |
| Nuclear Warheads | 170 (fission-type; expanding arsenal) | 90+ (up to 400 est.; undeclared, thermonuclear-capable) |
| Delivery Systems | Ballistic missiles (Ababeel MIRV); cruise missiles; aircraft | Jericho III ICBMs (6,500 km); Dolphin-class subs; F-15/16 jets |
| Strategic Focus | Counter-India; tactical nukes for battlefield use | Take over Gaza |
Pakistan’s numerical edge in manpower contrasts Israel’s technological superiority and qualitative nuclear ambiguity. Recent developments: Pakistan modernizes with new fissile production, while Israel’s June 2025 strikes demonstrated precision against hardened targets. A direct clash remains unlikely but catastrophic.
Will Turkey also Expand Its Military Base?
Qatar, blockaded by Saudi-led neighbors in 2017, has long leaned on Turkey—its “key strategic partner.” Post-Qatar strike, President Erdogan’s September 15, 2025, Doha visit—meeting Qatari, Saudi, and others—pushed joint military cooperation. Qatar’s FM called for “concrete response” to Israel, aligning with Turkey’s anti-Israel stance.
Following Saudi’s Pakistan pact, Qatar eyes deeper Turkish ties. Turkey’s Al Udeid base in Qatar, hosting 5,000 troops since 2017, expanded in August 2024 for anti-Rafale training. September 2025 summits hint at further growth, including drone exports and joint exercises, as Qatar rallies for an “Arab-Islamic NATO.”
This could counter Israel but strain U.S.-Turkey relations, per AEI analysis on September 16, 2025.
A New Era of Uncertainty in the Middle East
As Arab countries US relations shift 2025 accelerates, the region hurtles toward uncharted alliances. Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella and Turkey’s bases offer Arab states leverage against Israel, but at the cost of Middle East nuclear war threat 2025 and fractured security. Fresh September 2025 data paints a picture of urgency: from GCC defense activations to X-fueled debates on nuclear deterrence.
