In a world where tensions in the Middle East often boil over into conflict, nuclear weapons have long been seen as the ultimate “don’t mess with me” card. But do they really keep the peace, or do they just raise the stakes? With Israel’s undeclared arsenal, Iran’s near-nuclear status, and now a fresh defense pact between Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan, the question is more relevant than ever.
The Nuclear Landscape in the Middle East:
The Middle East is no stranger to nuclear drama. Israel is believed to have around 90 nuclear warheads, though it never officially admits it. This “ambiguous” stance has worked as a deterrent—meaning it scares off potential attackers without sparking an open arms race. For decades, it’s helped Israel fend off threats from neighbors.
Then there’s Iran, often called a “threshold state.” That means it’s super close to building a bomb but hasn’t crossed the line yet. In June 2025, Israel and the US struck Iranian nuclear sites, delaying their program but not destroying it. Experts say this might push Iran to rethink its “no nukes” fatwa (religious ruling) and speed up weaponization for deterrence against Israel. Iran’s goal? Balance power in a region where it faces off against Israel and Sunni Arab states like Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has no nukes—but that’s where the new twist comes in. On September 17, 2025, Saudi and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact, calling any attack on one an attack on both. Pakistan, the only Muslim-majority nuclear power with about 170 warheads, now extends a “nuclear umbrella” over Saudi. This could deter aggressors like Israel or Iran from targeting Saudi, much like how the US protects allies like Japan.
But is deterrence foolproof? History shows mixed results. Nukes prevented all-out war between the US and USSR during the Cold War, but in the Middle East, they might fuel an arms race. If Saudi gets effective nuclear cover, Turkey or Egypt might want in too, leading to “creeping nuclearization.” A 2025 UN report warns that preemptive strikes (like on Iran) delay programs but can harden resolve, making deterrence shaky. Plus, with Israel’s recent strikes on Qatar and Iran, Gulf states are doubting US protection, turning to alternatives like Pakistan.
In short: Nukes might deter direct attacks, but they risk escalation, miscalculations, and proliferation. As one analyst puts it, it’s “survival or extinction” for the region.
Could Pakistan Transfer Nuclear Weapons to Saudi Arabia?
Rumors of a Pakistan-Saudi nuclear deal aren’t new—Saudi reportedly funded Pakistan’s program in the 1970s-80s with an unspoken “umbrella” promise. The 2025 pact revives this: Pakistan’s defense minister said the nuclear program “will be made available” to Saudi if needed.
Possibilities:
- Nuclear Umbrella (Most Likely): No physical transfer—just a promise that Pakistan would use its nukes to defend Saudi. Think US-South Korea. Experts say this fits the pact’s “strategic” language, avoiding proliferation risks. Social media buzz calls it a “game-changer” post-Israel’s Qatar strike.
- Tech or Weapon Transfer (Less Likely but Possible): Outright handing over warheads? Unlikely due to global sanctions and Pakistan’s India-focused arsenal. But some analysts warn Saudi could push for tech sharing amid US unreliability. Pakistan denies nukes are “on the radar,” but the minister’s words sparked fears.
- No Action (Low Chance): If tensions cool, the pact stays symbolic. But with Israel’s aggression, Saudi’s “nuclear temptations” grow.
Overall, a full transfer is improbable—Pakistan risks US/India backlash—but the umbrella alone shifts deterrence dynamics.
Exploring Deployment Scenarios
Short-range missiles (under 1,000 km) could target nearby threats like Iran or Yemen. Pakistan’s arsenal includes nuclear-capable ones like the Nasr (60 km range) for battlefield use.
Possibilities:
- Deployment for Defense: X posts suggest Pakistan could station missiles like the Ababeel (medium-range, nuclear-capable) in Saudi for quick response. The pact allows “joint deterrence,” so basing missiles there could happen if Saudi faces attack.
- Training and Tech Sharing Only: More likely, Pakistan sends advisors or trains Saudis on systems without permanent bases. Pakistan already has 1,500-2,000 troops in Saudi for security.
- Escalation Risks: Israel won’t like it—analysts say it could “reshape geopolitics” but provoke strikes.
This could enhance deterrence but heighten tensions.
Economic and Military Boosts
Arab nations, especially Saudi and UAE, are Pakistan’s lifeline. Here’s how they amp up Pakistan’s clout:
- Economic Muscle: Saudi aid stabilizes Pakistan’s economy—think bailouts, jobs for millions of Pakistani workers, and investments. The pact could bring tech sharing and more funds, with Pakistan’s military budget (tiny vs. India’s) getting a lift. Recent deals with Saudi, UAE, and US could boost trade and growth.
- Military Edge: Joint training, weapon access (e.g., Saudi’s high-altitude defenses), and troop deployments. Pakistan has trained 8,000+ Saudis since 1967. This pact elevates cooperation, making Pakistan a “net security provider.”
| Arab Boost to Pakistan | Impact Level | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Economic Aid | High | Billions in loans, remittances from 2M+ workers |
| Military Training | Medium-High | Joint exercises, tech like F-15 jets access |
| Strategic Leverage | Medium | Nuclear pact PR, countering India |
In return, Pakistan gains “economic strengthening” while offering military might.
Strategic Grounds
To play guardian, Pakistan must:
- Deploy Forces Quickly: Send troops/advisors as in past (e.g., Iran-Iraq War). The pact means rapid response to attacks.
- Extend Nuclear Umbrella: Credibly threaten nuclear use if Arabs are hit, without provoking India/US.
- Build Alliances: Joint production, exercises with GCC states. Expand to UAE/Qatar.
- Manage Risks: Avoid entangling in Saudi-Iran rivalries; focus on deterrence.
Pakistan’s role as “security guarantor” strengthens ties but demands careful balancing. Nuclear arsenals might deter all-out war, but the Pakistan-Saudi pact adds layers of complexity. Transfers or deployments are possible but risky, while Arab support supercharges Pakistan. For true security, diplomacy—not just deterrence—must lead. As tensions rise in 2025, the world watches if this “blessing” turns into a curse.
