The 2024 European elections are poised to be a pivotal event, shaping the political landscape of the continent for the coming years. With significant shifts in voter sentiment and the potential rise of far-right parties, these elections could dramatically alter the EU’s direction.
The Far-Right Surge
France: Marine Le Pen’s Ascent
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally secured 31.5% of the vote in the June 2024 European Parliament elections, overshadowing President Macron’s Renaissance party, which garnered only 14.6%. This result indicates a potential shift towards far-right politics in France. If Le Pen’s party wins the forthcoming legislative elections, France could see a government that clamps down on immigration, suppresses the rights of French Muslims, and resists EU impositions.
Germany: Alternative for Germany (AfD) Gains Ground
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second in the European elections with 16% of the vote, surpassing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats. The AfD’s strong performance, especially in the former East Germany and among young voters, suggests a growing far-right influence that could impact EU policies.
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Implications for the EU
Mainstream Forces Holding On
Despite the rise of far-right parties in France and Germany, mainstream forces like the European People’s Party (EPP), The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, the liberal Renew, and the Greens still hold a majority in the European Parliament. This means that, for now, centrist and left-leaning parties will likely continue to influence EU policies.
Leadership and Policy Continuity
The potential reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen as head of the European Commission and the possibility of Socialist former Prime Minister of Portugal Antonio Costa becoming president of the European Council indicate that mainstream leadership may continue, ensuring policy continuity and stability within the EU.
Eastern EU: A Different Picture
Hungary: Orban’s Declining Support
In Hungary, Viktor Orban’s FIDESZ party experienced setbacks, with their vote share dropping from 52% to 44% in the recent European elections. A new challenger, the Respect and Freedom (TISZA) party, founded by former FIDESZ member Peter Magyar, secured 30%, indicating a shift in voter preferences.
Poland: Civic Coalition’s Victory
In Poland, Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) finished first with 37.1% of the vote, slightly ahead of Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Law and Justice (PiS). Although PiS remains influential, Tusk’s victory represents a challenge to the far-right’s dominance in Polish politics.
Potential Outcomes and Challenges
Rise of Far-Right Governments
If far-right parties like Le Pen’s National Rally in France and AfD in Germany continue to gain support, the EU could face a shift towards more nationalist and populist policies. This could lead to changes in immigration policies, EU integration, and relations with other global powers.
Resilience of Democracy
Despite the potential rise of far-right parties, the resilience of democratic processes in the EU should not be underestimated. The ability of centrist and left-leaning parties to maintain control in the European Parliament suggests that the EU’s democratic institutions remain robust.
Impact of US Politics
The outcome of the US presidential elections could also influence the direction of EU politics. A potential victory for Donald Trump could embolden far-right and nationalist movements across Europe, further complicating the political landscape.
Political direction
The 2024 European elections are set to be a watershed moment, with the potential to significantly alter the political direction of the EU. While the rise of far-right parties in major countries like France and Germany poses challenges, the resilience of centrist forces and the democratic process offers hope for stability and continuity in EU policies. The evolving political dynamics in the eastern EU and the broader global context will also play crucial roles in shaping the future of the European Union.
