Is NATO Uniting China and Russia in Eastern Europe?

The geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe is increasingly becoming a battleground for global influence. NATO’s policies and actions, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict, have prompted significant reactions from global powers. The burgeoning alignment between China and Russia is of particular interest, raising questions about the implications for regional and global stability.

NATO’s Stance and Accusations

During NATO’s 75th anniversary summit, leaders from its member nations made a decisive move, labeling China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine. This marked a significant escalation in rhetoric against Beijing. The summit’s 38-point declaration accused China of supporting Russia’s defense industry through a “no limits” partnership, formalized shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This partnership has been seen as a vital factor in sustaining Russia’s military efforts.

Key Accusations

1. No Limits Partnership: NATO’s declaration highlighted the “no limits” partnership between China and Russia, announced just before the invasion of Ukraine. This partnership is viewed as a critical factor in sustaining Russia’s military capabilities .
2. Material and Political Support: NATO urged China to halt all material and political support for Russia’s war efforts, particularly the supply of dual-use materials that could be employed in weaponry .
3. Systemic Challenges: Beyond Ukraine, NATO accused China of posing systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security through cyber activities and disinformation campaigns .

China’s Response

China has vehemently denied NATO’s accusations, condemning the alliance’s communique as filled with a “Cold War mentality and belligerent rhetoric.” Chinese officials have emphasized their stance on promoting peace talks and a political resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which they claim has garnered international recognition .

Official Statements

• Promotion of Peace Talks: Chinese officials reiterated their commitment to promoting peace talks and a political resolution to the Ukraine conflict. In February 2023, China proposed a 12-point plan to end the war, although this plan was met with mixed reactions internationally .
• Condemnation of NATO’s Rhetoric: A spokesperson from the Chinese mission to the EU described NATO’s communique as provocative and full of incitements and smears .

Broader Accusations and Regional Implications

NATO’s accusations extend beyond Ukraine, encompassing broader security concerns. The alliance believes that China and Russia are collaborating to reshape the rules-based international order, which NATO sees as a profound concern. This perceived threat has driven NATO to strengthen ties with Asia-Pacific nations, aiming to counterbalance China’s influence .

Specific Allegations

1. Cyber and Hybrid Activities: NATO accused China of engaging in cyber activities and disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining Euro-Atlantic security .
2. Coercive Tactics: The alliance claimed that China is using coercive tactics to divide NATO members, referencing Turkey’s interest in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and meetings between Chinese and Hungarian leaders .

Military Comparisons: NATO vs. China

To understand the potential impact of this geopolitical shift, it is essential to compare the military capabilities of NATO and China.

NATO’s Military Strength

NATO, founded in 1949, has grown to include 32 member states, with Finland and Sweden being the latest additions. The alliance’s collective defense spending is projected to reach $1.47 trillion this year, a substantial increase from previous years. The United States, the largest contributor, allocates around $967 billion to defense, accounting for approximately two-thirds of NATO’s total expenditure. Other significant contributors include Germany ($97.7 billion), the UK ($82.1 billion), France ($64.3 billion), and Poland ($34.9 billion) .

Commitment to Defense Spending

• 2% GDP Goal: NATO countries have committed to spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense, with varying degrees of compliance among members. Notably, the United States spends about 3.4% of its GDP on defense, reflecting its leadership role within the alliance .
• Top Spenders: As a portion of GDP, Poland (4.1%), Estonia (3.4%), and Latvia (3.2%) are among the highest spenders. Conversely, Spain (1.3%) and Canada (1.4%) spend the least on defense .

China’s Military Capabilities

China, while not a member of NATO, has significantly bolstered its military capabilities in recent years. Its defense budget for 2023 is estimated at around $230 billion, making it the second-largest military spender globally after the United States. China has focused on modernizing its armed forces, enhancing its cyber warfare capabilities, and expanding its naval presence, particularly in the South China Sea .

Key Developments

• Modernization Efforts: China has invested heavily in modernizing its military, with significant advancements in missile technology, cyber warfare, and artificial intelligence .
• Naval Expansion: China’s naval expansion is a key component of its military strategy, with a focus on asserting control in the South China Sea and projecting power globally .

Strategic Implications

The growing alignment between China and Russia in Eastern Europe poses strategic challenges for NATO. This partnership could potentially undermine NATO’s efforts to maintain regional stability and deter aggression. The increasing military collaboration between China and Russia, including joint exercises and technological exchanges, suggests a coordinated approach to counter NATO’s influence .

NATO’s Strategic Response

NATO’s response involves strengthening alliances with Asia-Pacific partners such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. By extending its reach beyond the Euro-Atlantic region, NATO aims to create a global network of partnerships to counterbalance China and Russia’s growing influence .

Key Initiatives

• Collaborative Projects: NATO plans to launch projects with Asia-Pacific partners focusing on backing Ukraine, strengthening cyber defense, countering disinformation, and advancing artificial intelligence .
• Engagement with Regional Allies: NATO hosted leaders from New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, as well as Australia’s deputy prime minister, to discuss deepening cooperation and expanding NATO’s footprint in the Asia-Pacific region .

Geopolitical landscape

The alignment of China and Russia in response to NATO policies represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe. NATO’s accusations against China, coupled with China’s defiant responses, have intensified tensions. The military comparisons highlight the formidable capabilities of both NATO and China, underscoring the high stakes involved. As NATO continues to adapt its strategies and forge new alliances, the global community watches closely, aware that the outcomes of these developments will shape the future of international relations and security.

References

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    Credits: Mr. Saeed Minhas, Waseem Qadri and Muhammad Asad Contribute this article