Arms control and disarmament have long been pillars of global security, aimed at reducing the risk of conflict and promoting stability in international relations. However, the dynamics of global security are continuously evolving, driven by emerging technologies, rising geopolitical tensions, and the militarization of new domains such as outer space. Within this framework, the dialogue between China and Pakistan, as facilitated by the Arms Control and Disarmament Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI), provides an illuminating case study of how regional powers navigate these complex issues.
The Context of the Meeting: A Closer Look
The in-house meeting organized by the ACDC with a Chinese delegation led by Mr. Sun Xiaobo, Director General of the Department of Arms Control at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), marked a significant moment in Sino-Pakistani strategic relations. The high-profile event gathered key figures from both countries, including former diplomats, military officials, academics, and think-tank experts. Among the notable attendees were Ambassador Zamir Akram, a well-known figure in arms control diplomacy, and Ambassador Tehmina Janjua, Pakistan’s first female foreign secretary.
The agenda of the meeting spanned a broad range of critical issues, including global trends in arms control, the risks posed by emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), and the impact of the ongoing Ukraine conflict on nuclear stability. Both China and Pakistan have historically shared concerns regarding the militarization of outer space and major-power competition, particularly the deepening Indo-U.S. strategic partnership.
Key Themes Discussed
- Global Arms Control Challenges The arms control regime, traditionally underpinned by treaties such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), faces multiple challenges. The breakdown of arms control agreements, the erosion of mutual trust among major powers, and the increasing reliance on emerging technologies such as AI are exacerbating tensions. The China-Pakistan dialogue reflected these concerns, with a focus on how the two countries might contribute to a renewed global commitment to arms control.
- Emerging Technologies and Risks of AI One of the most pressing issues discussed was the role of AI in military applications. As AI continues to evolve, its potential to alter the nature of warfare is a growing concern. The ability of AI to autonomously make decisions in conflict situations raises ethical and strategic dilemmas, as these systems could potentially lead to unintended escalations. Both China and Pakistan, aware of these risks, are advocating for a responsible approach to AI development in military contexts. This is particularly relevant in the context of arms control, as the introduction of AI could undermine existing agreements or create new areas of competition.
- Militarization of Outer Space The militarization of outer space is another area where China and Pakistan share common concerns. Both countries oppose the weaponization of space, as it could lead to a destabilizing arms race in a domain critical to global communications, navigation, and military operations. The United States and other major powers have been developing capabilities that could be perceived as offensive, including anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. This threatens the fragile balance that has so far kept space as a relatively peaceful arena. China’s Global Security Initiative, which was discussed during the meeting, emphasizes the need for international cooperation to prevent an arms race in space.
- Ukraine Conflict and Nuclear Risks The ongoing Ukraine conflict was another critical topic, particularly concerning its implications for nuclear stability. The risk of escalation involving nuclear-armed states has become a serious concern, as the conflict has drawn in major powers either directly or indirectly. The Chinese delegation expressed concerns about the increasing risk of nuclear war due to the involvement of NATO in the region and the potential for misunderstandings between nuclear-armed states. Pakistan, too, has a vested interest in nuclear stability, as it is a nuclear-armed state situated in a volatile region. Both countries reiterated their commitment to preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and reducing the risk of nuclear conflict.
- Indo-U.S. Strategic Partnership The deepening Indo-U.S. strategic partnership was also a key theme in the discussions. For Pakistan, the U.S.-India relationship poses significant security challenges, particularly in the context of nuclear and conventional military competition. The partnership has led to greater U.S. military and technological support for India, which Pakistan views as destabilizing for regional security. China, too, is wary of the U.S.-India partnership, as it perceives it as part of a broader U.S. strategy to contain Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. The China-Pakistan dialogue emphasized the need for strategic coordination to counterbalance this partnership and ensure stability in the region.
- China’s Global Security Initiative China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) was highlighted during the meeting as a key element of its approach to international security. The GSI calls for a cooperative and inclusive approach to global security, emphasizing the need for dialogue and mutual respect among nations. It seeks to address not only traditional security issues like arms control but also non-traditional threats such as cyber warfare, terrorism, and climate change. The initiative aligns with Pakistan’s own strategic priorities, particularly its emphasis on maintaining regional stability and preventing conflict escalation.
Strategic Implications for China-Pakistan Relations
The dialogue between China and Pakistan on arms control and disarmament underscores the strategic convergence between the two nations. Both countries share common concerns about the militarization of emerging technologies and the need for a stable security environment in their respective regions. The discussions reflect a broader alignment in their foreign policies, with both nations emphasizing the importance of multilateralism, non-interference in internal affairs, and respect for sovereignty.
This alignment is particularly important in the context of the Indo-Pacific, where the United States and its allies have been pursuing a strategy aimed at countering China’s rise. The China-Pakistan partnership, exemplified by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has become a cornerstone of regional geopolitics. Arms control and disarmament are natural extensions of this partnership, as both countries seek to promote stability in an increasingly multipolar world.
Arms control dialogue:
The arms control dialogue between China and Pakistan, as reflected in the recent meeting at the ACDC, is emblematic of the growing strategic partnership between the two countries. In an era marked by technological innovation, geopolitical competition, and the erosion of traditional arms control agreements, this dialogue provides valuable insights into how regional powers are navigating these challenges. The discussions highlighted shared concerns about emerging technologies, space militarization, and the risks of nuclear conflict, while also emphasizing the need for international cooperation to address these issues.
China and Pakistan’s commitment to arms control and disarmament reflects their broader strategic priorities, which include maintaining regional stability, countering the Indo-U.S. partnership, and preventing the escalation of global conflicts. As the global security environment continues to evolve, the partnership between China and Pakistan is likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of arms control.
References
- ISSI. (2024). In-House Meeting with Chinese Delegation on Arms Control and Disarmament. Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad.
- Amnesty International. (2023). The Risks of AI in Military Applications.
- Arms Control Association. (2023). The Militarization of Outer Space and Emerging Challenges.
- Human Rights Watch. (2023). The Ukraine Conflict and Nuclear Risks.
- Sun, X., Xiaobo, S., & Xinxing, X. (2024). China’s Global Security Initiative: A New Approach to International Security. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China.
