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Will Ukraine’s Long-Range Strikes Change the Course of the War?

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In the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, one of the most compelling dynamics to emerge is Ukraine’s capability to strike deep into Russian territory. In recent months, Kyiv’s military forces have targeted key Russian ammunition depots, fuel reserves, and drone storage facilities, dealing significant blows to Moscow’s logistics and support systems. These attacks are not isolated incidents but part of a calculated strategy, which could fundamentally alter Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort.

Ukraine’s Escalating Strike Campaign

Since mid-September 2024, Ukraine has intensified its long-range strikes on Russian military installations. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these strikes, though limited in scale, are having a profound effect on Russia’s military logistics. In a notable series of attacks, Ukrainian forces have targeted ammunition depots in the Krasnodar region, the Republic of Adygea, and other critical Russian strongholds. For instance, Ukrainian drones hit an ammunition depot in Karachev in the Bryansk region and struck the largest fuel depot in illegally annexed Crimea, igniting a massive fire that raged for days.

Despite the localized nature of these attacks, military analysts, including those from ISW, suggest that the cumulative impact could force Russia to reorganize its logistics and disperse its support infrastructure. This would not only slow Russia’s operations in Ukraine but also diminish its capacity to wage a large-scale offensive.

A Shift in Russian Military Tactics?

The immediate question raised by these attacks is how they will impact Russia’s broader war effort. Traditionally, Russia has relied on its mass-optimized logistics system to support large-scale military operations. By concentrating ammunition and fuel supplies in key depots, Russia has been able to sustain its forces on multiple fronts. However, repeated Ukrainian strikes on these depots threaten to disrupt this approach.

According to ISW, the Russian military command may now be forced to disperse its support and logistics systems across a wider geographic area. While this would reduce the risk of catastrophic losses from a single Ukrainian strike, it would also make it more difficult for Russia to sustain large-scale offensive operations. In other words, Ukraine’s strike campaign is not just about destroying supplies—it’s about reshaping the battlefield dynamics in a way that favors Ukrainian forces.

The Role of Western Military Aid

One of the key factors in Ukraine’s ability to carry out these long-range strikes is the growing support from Western nations. Over the past year, the United States and European Union have supplied Ukraine with advanced drone technology, precision-guided munitions, and intelligence support, enabling Kyiv to target Russian facilities with increasing accuracy. The ISW notes that Ukraine’s ability to continue this strike campaign will largely depend on the availability of Western-supplied systems and the willingness of Western governments to lift restrictions on their use.

The European Peace Facility (EPF), a fund set up by the European Union to reimburse member states for military aid provided to Ukraine, has been a crucial part of this support network. However, the EPF has been bogged down by internal political disputes, most notably Hungary’s veto of further military aid. Budapest’s opposition stems from its broader geopolitical stance, with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán opposing what he calls the EU’s “pro-war policy.”

To circumvent Hungary’s veto, EU officials are exploring the possibility of making contributions to the EPF voluntary rather than mandatory. While this could unlock much-needed funds for Ukraine, it also risks undermining the EU’s united front against Russia. As one diplomat warned, this approach could set a dangerous precedent, allowing other member states to withhold contributions in the future.

Russian Vulnerabilities:

Ukraine’s strikes on Russian military infrastructure are not random acts of aggression but calculated moves designed to exploit specific vulnerabilities in Russia’s logistics network. One of the most significant targets has been Russia’s reliance on Shahed drones, which are used to strike both frontline and rear Ukrainian settlements. In September, Ukrainian forces struck a storage facility in the Krasnodar region, reportedly destroying around 400 Shahed drones. Given that Russia expends roughly 10,000 artillery shells per day, the loss of these drones represents a significant setback for Moscow.

Moreover, Ukrainian strikes have targeted key fuel depots, including one in Feodosia, Crimea. This depot is one of only two facilities in the region capable of supplying Russia’s Black Sea fleet, making it a critical asset for Moscow. By disrupting fuel supplies, Ukraine is not only affecting Russian naval operations but also hampering the overall supply chain that keeps Russian forces operational.

A Long-Term Shift in the War?

Looking ahead, the continued success of Ukraine’s long-range strikes could have far-reaching implications for the war. As ISW notes, the strikes could force Russian military commanders to make difficult decisions about how to allocate resources and protect key assets. If Ukraine can sustain these attacks at scale, Russia may be compelled to divert resources away from frontline operations to protect its rear areas, thereby weakening its overall military posture.

Furthermore, the effectiveness of these strikes could increase if Ukraine is given access to more advanced Western systems. For instance, long-range missile systems like the ATACMS or enhanced drone capabilities could allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory, hitting not just logistics depots but also command-and-control centers. The ISW suggests that if Western governments lift restrictions on the use of these systems, Ukraine could exploit Russian vulnerabilities even further.

The Role of Political Will

Despite these tactical successes, Ukraine’s ability to continue its strike campaign will depend on a variety of factors, including the availability of military resources and the political will of Western nations. The reform of the EPF, for instance, remains a contentious issue within the EU. While some officials argue that making contributions voluntary is a necessary step to bypass Hungary’s veto, others warn that this approach could weaken the EU’s unified stance against Russia.

In the United States, political support for Ukraine remains strong, but there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of military aid. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, both candidates—Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican rival Donald Trump—have expressed differing views on how to handle the conflict. While Harris has pledged continued support for Ukraine, Trump has criticized the current administration’s handling of the war, raising questions about the future of U.S. military aid.

A War in Transition

Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian logistics and support facilities represent a turning point in the war. These attacks are not just about destroying supplies; they are part of a broader strategy to disrupt Russia’s military operations and force a rethinking of its logistical approach. However, the success of this strategy will depend on a variety of factors, including the continued availability of Western military aid and the political will to sustain the effort. As the war in Ukraine enters a new phase, the stakes for both sides are higher than ever.

References

  1. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Reports
  2. European Peace Facility Reform Proposal, 2024
  3. Pew Research Center Polls, October 2024
  4. Wall Street Journal Analysis of Ukrainian Strikes, 2024
  5. Al Jazeera Coverage of EU’s Military Aid to Ukraine, September 2024

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