Earth’s Fever Rises: Can COP29 Cool It Down?

The world is facing a grave climate crisis, as highlighted by the recent Global State of the Climate report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). With rising temperatures, melting ice caps, and increasingly severe weather events, there are warnings that the planet is reaching dangerously overheated levels. As COP29 kicks off in Baku, Azerbaijan, world leaders and climate activists gather to discuss the urgency of mitigating climate change, but doubts remain as to whether decisive action will be taken.

Has Earth’s Temperature Really Risen to Dangerous Levels?

The latest data confirms that global temperatures have indeed risen significantly over the last few decades. According to the WMO’s Global State of the Climate report for 2024, the past ten years have been the warmest on record, with 2024 expected to be the hottest year ever recorded. The Earth has already warmed by approximately 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, a figure approaching the 1.5°C limit set in the Paris Agreement as a critical threshold. This warming trend has led to catastrophic events, including record-high sea surface temperatures, widespread droughts, and severe floods in various parts of the world.

The Science Behind Global Overheating

Climate scientists warn that as temperatures rise, natural systems across the globe face mounting stress. Warmer air and sea temperatures accelerate ice melt in polar regions, causing sea levels to rise and coastal areas to become vulnerable to flooding. These conditions also exacerbate extreme weather events, creating a cycle of intense droughts, storms, and unpredictable seasonal patterns that pose a direct threat to human lives and biodiversity.

Global CO₂ levels have been a significant driver of this warming trend. Despite some reductions in emissions within Europe, global CO₂ output continues to rise, contributing further to the greenhouse effect. The lack of sufficient action worldwide to curb emissions has fueled the crisis, and recent studies indicate that without more aggressive measures, average temperatures could increase by 3°C by the end of the century—an outcome that would disrupt nearly all ecosystems on Earth.

What Are the Possible Effects of Global Overheating?

The impact of a dangerously overheated planet is already visible. Rising temperatures affect agriculture, water resources, health, and economies around the globe. Below are some potential effects of unchecked global warming:

1. Agricultural Instability: Increased heat waves and unpredictable rainfall patterns threaten crop yields, jeopardizing food security. Regions that rely on agriculture may suffer from poor harvests, leading to higher food prices and hunger.
2. Public Health Risks: Higher temperatures intensify heatwaves, resulting in health hazards, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and children. Infectious diseases also spread more easily in warmer climates, and water scarcity increases the risk of diseases due to poor sanitation.
3. Disruption of Marine Ecosystems: Rising sea temperatures lead to coral bleaching, which affects fish populations and disrupts marine biodiversity. Additionally, the melting of polar ice raises sea levels, increasing the risk of flooding in low-lying coastal areas.
4. Economic Strain: Climate-related damages put immense pressure on national economies. Rebuilding after floods, fires, and storms requires significant resources, diverting funds from other critical areas such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
5. Mass Displacement: Climate-induced displacement is becoming more common, as extreme weather events and rising sea levels render areas uninhabitable. This displacement leads to social and economic strain in receiving regions, highlighting the need for a more integrated and sustainable approach to managing climate impacts.

Can COP29 Reach a Conclusive Agreement?

COP29 holds a critical position in the global conversation on climate change, with expectations for substantive agreements. However, past COP summits have often ended with non-binding commitments, and there are concerns that this year’s summit in Baku may be no different. A few barriers to a conclusive outcome include:

1. Divergent National Interests: Countries have different priorities regarding climate action. While industrialized nations may push for emission cuts, developing nations, still dependent on fossil fuels for growth, seek economic balance over rapid change.
2. Funding and Accountability: Developing countries demand financial support from developed nations to implement green initiatives. However, the $100 billion promised in climate finance has yet to be fully delivered, leading to mistrust and reluctance to commit to stricter emissions standards.
3. Political and Economic Pressures: Economic downturns and political shifts influence the stance of countries. For instance, a focus on domestic issues can lead to a deprioritization of climate agendas. Without robust, universally enforceable mechanisms, COP29 may struggle to yield actionable agreements.

Why is Azerbaijan’s President Blaming Europe?

At the opening of COP29, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev voiced criticism against Western countries that purchase Azeri gas while simultaneously criticizing Azerbaijan’s fossil fuel-based economy. Aliyev referred to these actions as hypocritical, emphasizing that oil and gas are natural resources and that countries should not be criticized for using their resources for economic stability.

Aliyev’s argument reflects a larger tension between fossil fuel-exporting countries and Western climate policies. He insists that Azerbaijan is committed to the green transition, but he argues that this transition must be realistic and achievable. By calling out the perceived double standard, Aliyev seeks to position Azerbaijan as a willing participant in climate action, while also defending its right to use its resources as it sees fit.

Will the European Union be Able to Withstand this Criticism?

The European Union has long positioned itself as a global leader in climate action, implementing ambitious policies aimed at reducing emissions across member states. However, Aliyev’s criticism underscores a challenging aspect of the EU’s climate policy: reliance on fossil fuel imports. While the EU reduces its domestic emissions, it continues to depend on imported fossil fuels to meet its energy needs, particularly during energy crises.

This reliance on external fossil fuels presents a dilemma for the EU, as it must balance its climate commitments with energy security. The criticism from Azerbaijan and other fossil fuel-exporting nations highlights the need for the EU to address its dependency issues. This criticism also reinforces the necessity for Europe to accelerate investments in renewable energy to reduce its reliance on imported fuels.

Climate crisis

The world is undoubtedly facing a climate crisis that has resulted in record-breaking temperatures, severe weather events, and long-term environmental changes. The current state of the planet is a clear warning, as documented in the WMO’s report and underscored by events discussed at COP29. While leaders gather in Baku to seek solutions, it remains uncertain if decisive action will be taken, especially given conflicting national interests and economic concerns.

Azerbaijan’s critique of Western climate policy raises an important question about the responsibility of fossil fuel-consuming versus fossil fuel-producing nations. The European Union, despite its climate leadership, is criticized for its dependence on fossil fuel imports, complicating its role in the global push toward a green transition.

References

1. World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (2024). Global State of the Climate Report.
2. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). (2024). “2024 Likely To Be Hottest Year on Record.”
3. UN COP29 Summit Proceedings, 2024. Baku, Azerbaijan.
4. European Union Climate Policy Documents (2023-2024).
5. Euronews. (2024). “Azerbaijan President Aliyev’s Critique of Western Climate Hypocrisy at COP29.”