The China Pakistan Study Centre (CPSC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) recently hosted an insightful lecture by Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand.
The event, part of CPSC’s Distinguished Lecture Series, focused on the theme: “Southeast Asia/ASEAN between the U.S. and China: Dynamics and Prospects.” The gathering attracted a diverse audience, including former federal ministers, senior diplomats, academicians, and civil society members.
In his opening remarks, Ambassador Sohail Mahmood, Director General of ISSI, lauded Dr. Pongsudhirak’s significant contributions to strategic thought in Thailand and the broader ASEAN region. He emphasized the longstanding and multifaceted relationship between Pakistan and Thailand, highlighting collaborations in trade, investment, education, science and technology, culture, and tourism. Ambassador Mahmood also underscored the deep-rooted civilizational ties, tracing back to Pakistan’s ancient Buddhist Gandhara heritage. Reflecting on historical alliances, he noted the cooperative efforts of both nations within the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) framework. Today, Thailand stands as a steadfast supporter of Pakistan’s enhanced partnership with ASEAN. Ambassador Mahmood pointed out that while ASEAN’s growth in previous decades benefited from stable major-power relations, the current intensifying U.S.-China rivalry presents significant challenges. He expressed optimism that ASEAN would adeptly navigate this intricate geopolitical landscape, noting Dr. Pongsudhirak’s expertise as invaluable for understanding these complexities.
Dr. Pongsudhirak began his lecture by observing the global transition, particularly accentuated since the commencement of President Donald Trump’s second term. He identified two dominant themes in Trump’s policy: nativism and economic nationalism. This shift suggests a move away from interventionism towards increased protectionism, placing greater responsibilities on U.S. allies. Regarding China, Dr. Pongsudhirak described its trajectory as one of “manifest resurgence,” rooted in its historical global role and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. He posited that the emerging “new Cold War” mirrors past tensions, albeit with a focus on economic disputes. A pressing concern is the potential escalation of this geoeconomic conflict into outright hostility.
Focusing on ASEAN, Dr. Pongsudhirak highlighted that the intensifying major-power competition has challenged the organization’s centrality. Internal divisions have surfaced on issues such as Myanmar’s democratization, the Ukraine conflict, and the situation in Gaza. These challenges may prompt a resurgence of Southeast Asia as a region defined not merely by ASEAN cooperation but by broader regional dynamics. The U.S.-China relationship remains a pivotal factor influencing Southeast Asia and ASEAN in recent years.
Earlier, Dr. Talat Shabbir, Director of CPSC, emphasized that ASEAN and the Southeast Asian region are navigating a complex yet promising phase in the international order. He noted that ASEAN nations strive to maintain strategic autonomy while engaging constructively with major powers like the U.S. and China. Understanding the implications of U.S.-China relations is crucial for the region’s future trajectory.
In his concluding remarks, Ambassador Khalid Mahmood, Chairman of the Board of Governors at ISSI, observed that the traditional world order is fading, with a new one yet to emerge. This transitional period is marked by significant disruptions. He stressed the need to amplify the roles of middle powers and reform the UN-led international system to foster a more stable global order.
The lecture provided a comprehensive analysis of the intricate dynamics between the U.S. and China and their profound impact on Southeast Asia and ASEAN. It underscored the importance of strategic navigation and adaptability for regional organizations amid evolving geopolitical challenges.
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