More than two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the conflict continues to reshape the geopolitical fabric of Europe and the West. The question dominating recent headlines is not just about Ukraine’s survival but about the alignment of its future: Is Ukraine moving away from the United States and closer to Europe? A series of events—diplomatic tensions, evolving military support, new European security guarantees, and critical remarks by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—suggest a recalibration of alliances is underway.
Is Ukraine Moving Away from the U.S. and Closer to Europe?
Evidence of a Shift Toward Europe
Recent events suggest Ukraine is increasingly leaning on European support over U.S. involvement. Zelensky’s meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Odessa, amid continued Russian missile strikes, highlighted Europe’s growing security role. The European Union has pledged over €20 billion in security aid to Ukraine in just the first three months of 2025, and is organizing a multinational “coalition of the willing” to provide long-term guarantees for Ukraine’s security post-ceasefire.
U.S. Strategic Withdrawal?
The role of Steve Witkoff, U.S. envoy under Donald Trump, has become controversial in Ukraine. Witkoff’s comments about a peace deal involving “five territories” have been sharply rebuked by Zelensky, who sees them as echoing Kremlin narratives. This diplomatic spat underlines the Ukrainian leadership’s concern over U.S. backchannel talks with Moscow, potentially undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Furthermore, the U.S. under Trump is increasingly signaling that Europe should take more responsibility for its security, reflecting a possible retrenchment of American global military commitments.
Reasons for This Change?
Strategic Realignment
The U.S., especially under Trump, appears to be shifting from direct intervention to diplomatic mediation, which may not align with Ukraine’s current needs for immediate military and economic support. This shift leaves a vacuum that the EU appears willing to fill.
NATO’s Renewed Role
NATO, historically dominated by U.S. leadership, is now displaying a more European face. Mark Rutte’s statements in Odessa emphasized European commitment and military readiness, with proposals for permanent military presence in the Black Sea led by France, Turkey, and the UK.
EU Economic and Military Aid
The EU is advancing a €40 billion support plan for Ukraine, including an ammunition initiative and defense capabilities. High Representative Kaja Kallas has been vocal about sanctions against Russia and redirecting funds toward Ukraine’s defense. This aligns Ukraine more closely with Brussels than Washington.
Domestic Political Considerations in the U.S.
With the U.S. election cycle approaching, Trump’s peace agenda may prioritize ending the war quickly—potentially at Ukraine’s expense. Zelensky’s criticism of Trump allies suggests Kyiv fears being used as a bargaining chip in a broader U.S.-Russia recalibration.
Zelensky Criticizes Trump
Symbolism vs. Substance
Zelensky’s criticism reflects concern over Trump’s inconsistent stance on NATO. While the Trump administration supports peace, it simultaneously undermines NATO’s credibility by questioning its relevance and obligations.
This puts Ukraine in a paradox. It desires full NATO membership but faces uncertainty as Trump-led diplomacy opens channels with Russia that bypass NATO structures.
A Matter of Sovereignty
By declaring that only Ukrainians can decide territorial matters, Zelensky is reaffirming national sovereignty. Any backchannel deals involving the U.S. and Russia undermine this principle and present NATO support as conditional or secondary—thus weakening trust in long-standing alliances.
New Fund for Ukraine?
Yes. The EU is gradually building a multi-pronged financial and military support mechanism for Ukraine.
EU Artillery Fund
One of the most notable efforts is the initiative to provide two million artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of 2025. According to Kaja Kallas, €5 billion is needed, with two-thirds already secured. This project includes both direct donations and new procurement.
Sanctions and LNG Debate
The EU is also preparing its 17th sanctions package against Russia. Debates now include restricting Russian LNG imports, which amounted to €7 billion in 2024. Though there is resistance—particularly from Hungary—the initiative shows a concerted European push to economically isolate Russia.
Russia View This New Approach to Ukraine?
Strategic Patience
Russia views the European military buildup and U.S. political infighting as opportunities. By stalling ceasefire negotiations and continuing missile strikes, such as the recent attack on Sumy that killed over 35 civilians, Moscow tests Western resolve.
Undermining Western Unity
By engaging Trump’s envoy, Putin seeks to create a wedge between the U.S. and Europe. If Ukraine is perceived as shifting towards Europe and bypassing the U.S., Moscow may exploit transatlantic divisions to extract better terms in future negotiations.
What Could Be Russia’s Possible Strategy?
Fragmenting Western Support
Russia’s diplomatic outreach to Trump’s team suggests a divide-and-conquer approach. Encouraging European fatigue and U.S. retrenchment allows Russia to maintain control over eastern Ukraine while avoiding broader NATO retaliation.
Targeting Civilian Infrastructure
The repeated missile attacks—like the one in Sumy—are meant to break civilian morale and force Ukraine to the negotiation table. These acts of brutality also aim to test the limits of Western tolerance and solidarity.
Economic Pressure through Energy
By keeping LNG exports flowing to Europe, Russia ensures economic interdependence remains a factor. The Kremlin hopes divisions within the EU—particularly with states like Hungary—will weaken sanctions and delay further military assistance.
A Multipolar Security Future?
Ukraine’s journey now sits at the crossroads of transatlantic fragmentation and European resurgence. While NATO and the EU have ramped up efforts, the U.S. under Trump appears more interested in brokered deals than in maintaining a long-term military commitment.
Zelensky’s sharp rebuke of U.S. envoys reflects a deeper anxiety—Ukraine might be sacrificed for political expediency. Europe, meanwhile, is stepping into a leadership vacuum, building long-term military alliances and financial frameworks that hint at a future where it must defend not just Ukraine, but its own geopolitical relevance.
Whether this tilt toward Europe is temporary or a lasting realignment will depend on how cohesive the EU remains and whether the U.S. reaffirms—or withdraws—its commitment post-2024 elections.
References
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Euronews. (2025). Mark Rutte reaffirms NATO support during surprise visit to Odesa.
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DW News. (2025). EU prepares €40 billion package for Ukraine, including artillery fund.
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Politico Europe. (2025). Zelensky lashes out at Trump envoy over Russia peace plan.
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Reuters. (2025). Russia’s missile strike on Sumy kills 35 on Palm Sunday.
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European Council. (2025). EU Sanctions Tracker – 17th Package Development.
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Financial Times. (2025). Trump’s envoy holds third round of talks with Putin.
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NATO Official Website. (2025). Joint Press Conference with Zelensky and Rutte in Odessa.
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Al Jazeera. (2025). Kaja Kallas urges halt to Russian LNG imports.
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The Guardian. (2025). Ukraine calls on Europe for air defence systems amid US pullback.
