As Donald Trump prepares for his first overseas visit of his second term—once again beginning in Saudi Arabia—the question arises: what does this signal about the future of U.S. policy in the Middle East? With stops planned in Qatar and the UAE, this trip marks more than symbolic diplomacy. It signals a recalibrated American foreign policy—one steeped in transactionalism, economic pragmatism, and strategic messaging.
Middle East target:
Trump’s primary targets are clear: Iran, China, and diplomatic inertia. But the layers of this targeting go deeper.
Iran: The Familiar Foe
Iran remains a central adversary in Trump’s regional playbook. According to the Axios-cited report, part of Trump’s visit will involve security coordination with Gulf allies to contain Tehran. This echoes the “maximum pressure” strategy of his first term and seeks to revive a united Sunni-Israeli front against Iran.
Iran’s rhetoric has indeed escalated in recent months, particularly in response to the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict. However, Trump’s preference for alliances rooted in arms deals and economic benefits, rather than diplomatic engagement with Iran, narrows the room for meaningful regional de-escalation.
China: The Silent Rival
Though not directly mentioned in the article, China’s growing investments in the Gulf loom large. Trump’s realignment with the Gulf is, in part, a counterweight to China’s Belt and Road expansion.
Trump’s transactional diplomacy—focused on economic returns—seeks to “outbid” China in strategic Gulf partnerships. Expect American overtures toward infrastructure, arms, and tech investment to carry anti-China subtext.
From Diplomacy to Deal-Making
Biden’s Middle East policy focused on multilateral diplomacy, restarting the Iran nuclear deal, and managing the Gaza crisis with a cautious tone. Trump’s approach is far more unilateral, rooted in direct deals with autocratic partners and sidelining complex peace processes.
Shift in style: Biden attempted to restore U.S. credibility through diplomatic balance; Trump reverts to deal-centric foreign policy with clear winners and losers.
Normalization Without Nuance
While Biden was hesitant to expand the Abraham Accords without addressing Palestinian rights, Trump seems poised to reinvigorate the normalization drive, even amid renewed Israeli-Palestinian violence.
Trump as an “architect” of Middle East peace, but leaves out how the Accords bypassed Palestinian leadership, fueling further distrust. The claim that Arab countries will become “full-fledged architects” of peace is speculative and overlooks grassroots political resistance.
Economic Diplomacy as Foreign Policy
Trump’s administration is stacked with corporate-minded figures. His goal? Convert Gulf sovereign wealth funds into U.S. domestic investments—infrastructure, tech, defense.
This creates a two-way pipeline: Gulf capital flows into the U.S. economy, and American influence strengthens in the region through arms, oil, and infrastructure.
Military and Energy Integration
Trump wants to secure long-term energy partnerships to stabilize domestic prices, crucial to curbing inflation and boosting his economic credibility.
U.S. oil production is strong, but it cannot fully replace the stabilizing effect of Gulf oil on global markets. Trump’s strategy appears to prioritize energy diplomacy over climate policy, potentially clashing with global decarbonization goals.
Regional Security Framework
There’s talk of creating a new security architecture—a multilateral defense initiative among Gulf states, possibly with tacit Israeli support.
This could institutionalize anti-Iran containment, but risks escalating regional arms races, undermining fragile détente efforts brokered in recent years.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE:
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s tech ambitions align with Trump’s investment-focused diplomacy. These states are pragmatic and ready to play both sides—securing U.S. backing while courting Chinese and Russian investments.
The Gulf’s embrace of Trump is not unconditional. Leaders like MBS and MBZ are hedging their bets, keen to avoid overdependence on any one superpower.
Qatar: The Wildcard Mediator
Qatar’s balancing act—as a mediator in conflicts and host to both U.S. military bases and regional negotiations—gives it unique leverage. However, alignment with Trump’s harder line could alienate Iran or complicate its mediation role in Gaza.
Strategic Ally, Strategic Risk
Trump’s pro-Israel stance may embolden Tel Aviv’s assertiveness. However, ongoing conflict in Gaza complicates normalization efforts.
Trump’s bet on regional consensus without solving the Palestinian issue is fraught. Gulf leaders may play along publicly, but popular opinion in Arab streets remains heavily sympathetic to Palestine.
Middle East’s Relations With Israel
Through the Lens of Legacy
Trump sees himself as the architect of the Abraham Accords and wants to expand this framework.
While the Accords did lead to breakthrough normalization (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco), they also sidelined Palestinian voices. Trump’s narrative of peace-building often omits this fact, reinforcing critiques that the Accords prioritize regional containment of Iran over conflict resolution.
Transactional Normalization
For Trump, normalization is a quid-pro-quo: recognition of Israel in exchange for U.S. arms deals, investment, or diplomatic concessions.
Geopolitical tension: This approach may deepen short-term alliances, but it leaves unaddressed the long-term instability caused by unresolved Palestinian grievances and the continued expansion of Israeli settlements.
Trump’s second-term Middle East strategy blends economic opportunism, security entrenchment, and geopolitical reshuffling. His approach appeals to regional strongmen eager for investment and weapons, but it risks ignoring long-standing fault lines—particularly the Palestinian issue and U.S.-Iran tensions.
While the Gulf may welcome Trump’s pragmatism, the region’s deeper readiness for his unapologetically transactional diplomacy remains questionable. If Trump fails to reconcile his commercial ambitions with the region’s complex realities, his new Middle East doctrine may yield short-term gains but long-term instability.
References
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Axios. (2025). Trump’s Middle East trip itinerary and motivations.
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Al Jazeera. (2024). Gulf states’ evolving foreign policies and relations with the West.
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Brookings Institution. (2023). The Abraham Accords and the future of Israeli-Arab normalization.
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Reuters. (2025). Iran-US tensions escalate amid Gaza conflict.
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Carnegie Middle East Center. (2023). Saudi Vision 2030 and its geopolitical implications.
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Foreign Affairs. (2022). Trump’s transactional diplomacy: An economic analysis.
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The Economist. (2024). Why Europe is losing strategic influence in Washington.
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Human Rights Watch. (2024). Authoritarianism and repression in Gulf countries.
