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Trump-Saudi €127 Billion Arms Deal: Who Really Benefits?

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In May 2025, US President Donald Trump embarked on a high-profile Middle East tour, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The visit, marked by significant economic and defense agreements, underscored Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy. However, it occurred against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the region, particularly due to Israel’s ongoing military operations in Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. The exclusion of Israel from Trump’s itinerary raised questions about US priorities, while Israel’s plans for a potential escalation in Gaza added complexity to the regional landscape.

Background on Trump’s Middle East Visit

Trump’s Middle East tour, which began on May 12, 2025, was characterized by a series of landmark agreements with Gulf states, reflecting his focus on securing economic and security benefits for the US. The centerpiece was a $142 billion defense deal with Saudi Arabia, where the US agreed to provide “state-of-the-art warfighting equipment” in exchange for a $20 billion Saudi investment in the US artificial intelligence sector (Reuters: Saudi Investment). Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also committed to a $600 billion investment in the US, with Trump hinting at a potential $1 trillion target, highlighting the economic stakes of the visit.

Additional agreements between the US and Saudi Arabia covered military cooperation, justice department collaboration, and cultural exchanges. The visit also included stops in Qatar and the UAE, where Trump aimed to secure deals in artificial intelligence, energy cooperation, and potentially more arms sales. For instance, the US had recently approved a $3.5 billion sale of air-to-air missiles for Saudi Arabia’s fighter jets, further deepening military ties (Reuters: Saudi Investment).

Notably, Israel was absent from Trump’s itinerary, a decision that sparked debate about the US’s priorities in the region. This omission was particularly significant given the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and Israel’s intensified military operations in Gaza, which coincided with Trump’s visit (Times of Israel: Trump’s Tour). The exclusion of Israel, coupled with a lack of coordination on key regional decisions, highlighted potential tensions in US-Israel relations.

Israel’s Operations in Gaza

During Trump’s Middle East visit, Israel was at a critical juncture in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Israeli officials set a deadline of May 15, 2025, for a new hostage and ceasefire deal, warning that failure to reach an agreement would trigger a massive ground operation codenamed “Operation ‘Gideon Chariots’” (Reuters: Gaza Deal). This operation, approved by Israel’s Security Cabinet, aimed to reoccupy all of Gaza indefinitely, flatten remaining buildings, and displace the entire population of approximately 2 million people to a single “humanitarian area” in the south (Axios: Gaza Operation).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that the operation would involve holding territory rather than conducting temporary raids, signaling a significant escalation in strategy. “There will be no in-and-out,” Netanyahu stated, adding that the goal was to “conquer” the territory and defeat Hamas (CNN: Gaza Escalation). The plan also included provisions for Palestinians to “voluntarily” leave Gaza for other countries, though no nation had agreed to accept displaced individuals, raising concerns about the feasibility and ethics of such a policy (Axios: Gaza Operation).

The timing of Trump’s visit added pressure to the situation. Israeli officials described the period as a “window of opportunity” for a hostage deal, suggesting that Trump’s presence in the region could facilitate negotiations (Reuters: Gaza Deal). However, the US’s focus on economic deals with Gulf states and its decision to halt airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthis without notifying Israel complicated matters. The Houthi decision, in particular, caused consternation in Israel, as the group continued to target Israeli interests (Al Jazeera: Trump’s Visit).

Implications for Regional Stability

The convergence of Trump’s Middle East visit and Israel’s Gaza operations has significant implications for regional stability, US-Israel relations, and the broader Middle East landscape. Below are the key angles of impact:

US-Israel Relations

The exclusion of Israel from Trump’s itinerary and the lack of coordination on critical decisions, such as the hostage release negotiations and the Houthi airstrike halt, suggest strains in the US-Israel alliance. Israeli officials expressed frustration over being sidelined, with some interpreting Trump’s focus on Gulf states as prioritizing economic benefits over traditional alliances (Times of Israel: Trump’s Tour). For instance, Israel was not informed about US talks with Hamas until after they began, and Netanyahu only learned of US-Iran discussions during a later Oval Office visit (CNN: Israel Sidelined).

These incidents highlight a potential erosion of trust, which could impact future cooperation. Analysts suggest that Trump’s transactional approach, while effective in securing deals with Gulf states, may undermine the US’s role as a reliable partner for Israel (Guardian: Gulf Influence). This dynamic is particularly concerning given Israel’s reliance on US support amid the Gaza conflict.

Regional Power Dynamics

Trump’s emphasis on strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE positions the US to counter Iran’s influence in the region more effectively. The $142 billion defense deal and additional arms sales to Saudi Arabia enhance the Gulf states’ military capabilities, aligning with Trump’s goal of ensuring regional security through strong partnerships (Reuters: Saudi Investment). Additionally, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ nations’ decision to boost oil production supports Trump’s domestic agenda of lowering energy costs, further cementing these alliances (Guardian: Gulf Influence).

However, this focus comes at the expense of addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a persistent source of regional instability. The ongoing Gaza operations and the lack of progress toward a ceasefire complicate efforts to stabilize the region, as tensions between Israel and its neighbors could escalate further if “Operation ‘Gideon Chariots’” is launched (Axios: Gaza Operation).

Prospects for Peace

One of Trump’s long-term goals is to expand the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states during his first term. US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff expressed optimism about progress on this front, but Saudi-Israel normalization remains elusive (Reuters: Saudi-Israel Ties). Saudi Arabia has made clear that normalization depends on US security guarantees, assistance with its nuclear program, and progress toward Palestinian statehood—conditions that are currently unattainable given the Gaza conflict.

The intensification of Israel’s operations in Gaza, coupled with the displacement of its population, makes a two-state solution increasingly difficult. The lack of diplomatic engagement during Trump’s visit further diminishes the prospects for a broader peace process, as the US prioritizes economic deals over conflict resolution (Al Jazeera: Trump’s Visit).

Global Perception

Trump’s transactional foreign policy has drawn both praise and criticism. Supporters argue that securing $600 billion in Saudi investments and strengthening Gulf alliances demonstrates pragmatic leadership (Reuters: Saudi Investment). Critics, however, contend that neglecting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and sidelining Israel risks long-term instability. The Guardian’s Simon Tisdall noted that Gulf states may hold more leverage over US policy than Trump anticipates, potentially dictating the region’s future (Guardian: Gulf Influence).

The potential for a major Israeli operation in Gaza also raises concerns about global perceptions of US leadership. If the US is seen as tacitly endorsing or failing to prevent such an escalation, it could face criticism from international actors, including the United Nations, which has expressed alarm at Israel’s plans (Guardian: Gaza Offensive).

Economic and Strategic Context

The following table summarizes the key agreements and strategic outcomes of Trump’s Middle East visit, juxtaposed with Israel’s Gaza operations:

Aspect

Details

Implications

US-Saudi Defense Deal

$142 billion for advanced weaponry; $20 billion Saudi AI investment

Strengthens US-Saudi military ties, boosts US economy, counters Iran’s influence

Saudi Investment Pledge

$600 billion committed, potential $1 trillion target

Enhances US economic growth, aligns with Trump’s domestic agenda

Israel’s Gaza Operations

Plan to reoccupy Gaza, displace population if no deal by May 15, 2025

Risks escalation, humanitarian crisis, and regional instability

US-Israel Coordination

Lack of consultation on Houthi airstrikes, hostage talks

Strains US-Israel relations, erodes trust

Saudi-Israel Normalization

Stalled due to Gaza conflict, Palestinian statehood demands

Limits progress on Abraham Accords, hinders regional peace

Broader Implications

The convergence of Trump’s Middle East visit and Israel’s Gaza operations highlights the challenges of balancing economic interests, security concerns, and diplomatic relations in a volatile region. Trump’s focus on Gulf states and economic deals reflects a pragmatic approach but risks alienating Israel, a key ally, and exacerbating tensions in Gaza. The potential for “Operation ‘Gideon Chariots’” to displace millions and reshape Gaza’s future underscores the urgency of diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation.

Moreover, the lack of progress on Palestinian statehood and the stalled Saudi-Israel normalization process suggest that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will remain a central obstacle to regional stability. The US’s role as a mediator and ally will be tested in the coming months, as it navigates its relationships with both Israel and the Gulf states.

From a global perspective, Trump’s foreign policy will be judged by its ability to deliver both economic benefits and stability. While the $600 billion Saudi investment is a significant achievement, the failure to address the Gaza conflict could undermine these gains, drawing criticism from international partners and complicating US leadership in the Middle East (CNN: Israel Sidelined).

Conclusion

Trump’s Middle East visit in May 2025 was a pivotal moment for US foreign policy, marked by substantial economic and defense agreements with Gulf states. However, the exclusion of Israel and the intensification of Israel’s operations in Gaza highlighted the complexities of the region’s geopolitical landscape. With a May 15, 2025, deadline looming for a ceasefire deal, the potential for a major escalation in Gaza threatens to destabilize the region further. The strains in US-Israel relations, the stalled prospects for Saudi-Israel normalization, and the broader implications for global perceptions underscore the need for a balanced approach that addresses both economic and diplomatic priorities. As the situation evolves, the decisions made in this period will shape the Middle East’s future, with significant consequences for regional stability and international relations.

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