The possibility of Israel launching a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has gained traction in 2025, with recent U.S. intelligence reports from May 20 indicating Israel’s preparations for such an action. As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the potential ripple effects on Pakistan, a nuclear-armed neighbor with historical ties to Iran, are significant.
Israel’s Intentions and Global Dynamics
Recent reports from CNN on May 20, 2025, suggest that U.S. intelligence has detected Israel gearing up to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, driven by stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Iran’s weakened state due to sanctions. Israel views this as a window to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program, which the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warns could produce material for multiple warheads. However, the operation’s success hinges on U.S. support, including midair refueling and heavy bombs, which remains uncertain under the Trump administration unless Iran provokes further. This sets the stage for a potential regional escalation, with Pakistan’s strategic location and alliances coming into play.
Will Israel Cross Pakistan’s Airspace?
The likelihood of Israel crossing Pakistan’s airspace is extremely low due to logistical, political, and military constraints. Pakistan, a nuclear power with advanced air defenses, shares no direct diplomatic relations with Israel and maintains a strong alliance with Iran, underscored by their “brotherly ties” reaffirmed after recent border skirmishes. Technical mapping indicates that the shortest route from Israel to Iran’s nuclear sites (e.g., Natanz and Fordow, approximately 1,500 km away) avoids Pakistan entirely, favoring paths through Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
Crossing Pakistan would require overflying roughly 2,000 km of hostile territory, risking interception by Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder jets and radar systems. Posts on X suggest speculation about China and Pakistan providing surveillance support to Iran if Israel attacks, reflecting regional solidarity against Israel. Given Pakistan’s firm stance against Israeli aggression—evidenced by its condemnation of Iran’s consulate attack in Syria—any airspace violation would likely trigger a military response, escalating the conflict unnecessarily. Thus, Israel is unlikely to consider this route.
What Is the Possible Route of Israel Attack?
Israel’s attack routes to Iran’s nuclear facilities involve strategic planning to bypass fortified defenses and hostile airspace. Based on recent analyses, three primary routes emerge:
-
Jordan-Iraq Route: Israel could fly over Jordan and southern Syria, then cross into western Iraq, where U.S. coalition forces provide some cover. Reuters reports from October 2024 confirm Israeli jets used this path during a retaliatory strike, emitting sonic booms near the Jordanian border. This route, approximately 1,800 km, allows access to Natanz and Fordow but requires coordination with U.S. assets in Iraq.
-
Saudi Arabia Route: A longer route (around 2,200 km) via Saudi airspace could be viable, given covert cooperation hinted at by The Times of Israel in April 2024. Saudi Arabia’s advanced radar and air defenses, combined with U.S. bases, could facilitate this path, targeting Isfahan or Kharg Island. However, Saudi Arabia’s public condemnation of Israeli strikes complicates this option.
-
Azerbaijan Route: Though less likely, Israel might use Azerbaijan’s airspace (bordering Iran), a 1,600 km route. Israel Hayom notes Azerbaijan’s intelligence ties with Israel, but its reluctance to provoke Iran makes this improbable without significant U.S. backing.
Technical mapping highlights that Iran’s air defenses, including S-300 systems, are concentrated around nuclear sites, necessitating low-altitude penetration or U.S.-supplied GBU-57A/B bombs for underground targets. The Jordan-Iraq route remains the most feasible, leveraging existing U.S. military presence.
Will India Support Israel on Attacking Iran?
India’s stance on an Israeli attack on Iran is nuanced, balancing its strategic partnership with Israel and ties with Iran. India has strengthened defense ties with Israel, importing $2.9 billion in military hardware in 2024, and shares intelligence on regional threats. However, India relies on Iran for 10% of its oil imports and the Chabahar Port, a critical trade link to Central Asia.
Recent data from the Atlantic Council (August 2024) suggests India condemned Israel’s Damascus strike but cooperated with U.S.-led defenses against Iran’s April 2024 attack, indicating a preference for de-escalation. An Israeli strike on Iran could strain India’s energy security, potentially raising oil prices by 10-15% (World Bank estimates). While India might provide intelligence or diplomatic support, direct military backing—such as airspace access or logistical aid—is unlikely. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government would prioritize economic stability over aligning with Israel’s offensive, especially with elections looming in 2026.
The Attacking Route to Israel?
Arab countries’ roles in facilitating an Israeli attack are limited by regional politics and Iran’s warnings. Recent events provide clues:
-
Jordan: Jordan allowed U.S. and allied warplanes to use its airspace during Iran’s April 2024 attack, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. However, its armed forces denied Israeli overflights in October 2024 (Reuters), reflecting pressure from public anti-Israel sentiment. Jordan’s participation would be reluctant and conditional on U.S. mediation.
-
Saudi Arabia: The Times of Israel (April 2024) suggests Saudi Arabia shared intelligence and possibly airspace during Iran’s attack, hinting at covert cooperation. Despite mending ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s rivalry with Tehran and U.S. base presence (e.g., Prince Sultan Air Base) make it a potential route provider, though it publicly condemned Israel’s October 2024 strikes.
-
United Arab Emirates (UAE): The UAE, part of the Abraham Accords, has normalized ties with Israel but condemned the October 2024 attack (Carnegie Endowment). Its airspace, hosting U.S. bases like Al Dhafra, could theoretically support Israel, but diplomatic fallout with Iran and Gulf neighbors makes this unlikely without U.S. pressure.
Saudi Arabia emerges as the most plausible provider due to its strategic alignment with the U.S. and Israel against Iran, though its involvement would be discreet to avoid regional backlash.
Broader Impact on Pakistan
An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would have multifaceted effects on Pakistan:
-
Security Concerns: Pakistan’s 900 km border with Iran could become a flashpoint if Iran retaliates, potentially launching missiles over Pakistan or targeting U.S. bases in the region. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (February 2024) warns of a nuclear escalation risk, with Pakistan monitoring Israel’s undeclared nuclear capabilities.
-
Economic Fallout: A disrupted oil market (Iran supplies 5% of global oil) could spike prices, hitting Pakistan’s import-dependent economy. The World Bank projects a 5-7% inflation rise in Pakistan if oil prices surge post-attack.
-
Diplomatic Strain: Pakistan’s support for Iran, including joint military exercises in 2024, could strain relations with the U.S. and Israel. China, Pakistan’s ally, might counterbalance this by enhancing CPEC security, as speculated on X.
-
Regional Stability: An attack could embolden India to align with Israel, heightening Pakistan-India tensions. The Crisis Group (April 2025) notes Pakistan’s call for de-escalation, reflecting its desire to avoid entanglement.
Technical Mapping
Using GIS data, the shortest Israel-to-Iran route (Jordan-Iraq) spans 1,800 km, with Natanz at 32.159°N, 51.725°E and Fordow at 34.880°N, 50.995°E. Iran’s S-300 defenses, concentrated within 200 km of these sites, require Israel to deploy stealth F-35s or U.S. B-2 bombers with GBU-57A/B bombs (13.2 tons) for penetration. Pakistan’s airspace (30-37°N, 60-75°E) lies 1,200 km west, making it an impractical detour. Satellite imagery from The Washington Post (October 2024) confirms Iran’s redundant oil infrastructure, suggesting limited economic impact from strikes unless Kharg Island (29.237°N, 50.326°E) is targeted.
A Delicate Balance
An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would not directly involve Pakistan’s airspace but could destabilize the region, affecting Pakistan’s security, economy, and diplomacy. The Jordan-Iraq route, with possible Saudi support, is the most likely path, while India’s support remains limited to non-military aid. Pakistan must navigate this crisis by reinforcing its Iran alliance and leveraging China to mitigate fallout. As tensions mount, global stakeholders must prioritize diplomacy to prevent a wider conflict.
