In a seismic shift in American politics, billionaire Elon Musk has vowed to launch a new political party, tentatively named the “America Party,” following a high-profile feud with President Donald Trump over the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” in July 2025. Musk’s announcement, fueled by his opposition to the bill’s $3–5 trillion debt increase, has sparked intense speculation about whether his party can challenge Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Party. With Musk’s vast wealth, control of X, and a polarized political landscape, the America Party could disrupt the U.S.’s entrenched two-party system.
Musk’s Vision and Resources
Elon Musk, the world’s richest man with a net worth of approximately $400 billion, has positioned his America Party as a centrist alternative for the “80% in the middle,” capitalizing on widespread dissatisfaction with the two-party system. A 2024 Gallup poll found 58% of Americans support a third major party, with 63% expressing this view in 2023, reflecting deep frustration with the Republican and Democratic establishments. Musk’s financial firepower, demonstrated by his $291 million in donations to Republicans in the 2024 election cycle, gives him unparalleled resources to fund campaigns, secure ballot access, and amplify his message through X, which boasts over 100 million U.S. users.
Musk’s poll on X in June 2025, where 80% of respondents backed a new party, underscores his ability to gauge and mobilize public sentiment. His proposed America Party, echoing the name of his $200 million America PAC, aims to appeal to independents and disaffected voters by focusing on fiscal responsibility and government efficiency, themes he championed as head of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) until May 2025.
Trump’s GOP Dominance
However, challenging Trump is a daunting task. Trump has solidified his control over the Republican Party, with allies like Senator J.D. Vance describing him as the embodiment of the conservative movement. Trump’s legislative victories, such as the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which extended tax cuts and slashed green energy incentives, have rallied GOP lawmakers despite Musk’s opposition. Trump’s public approval, though negative according to YouGov polls, has not dented his influence within the party, making it difficult for Musk to peel away loyalists.
Musk’s feud with Trump, which erupted in June 2025 over the bill’s fiscal irresponsibility, has escalated tensions. Musk’s threat to primary GOP lawmakers who supported the bill, including backing Representative Thomas Massie, signals a strategy to disrupt from within while building his party. Yet, Republican operatives like Florida’s Jimmy Patronis predict the feud will fizzle, citing Trump’s ability to mend ties with allies.
Trump’s Threats and Political Posturing
Trump has hinted at targeting Musk’s South African background, a move that could inflame their feud. In a July 2025 Truth Social post, Trump suggested Musk might “have to close up shop and head back to South Africa” if federal subsidies for Tesla and SpaceX were cut, a jab at Musk’s status as a naturalized U.S. citizen. When asked about deporting Musk, Trump cryptically replied, “I don’t know, we’ll have to take a look,” fueling speculation about potential investigations into Musk’s immigration status. Stephen Bannon, a Trump ally, has explicitly called for such probes, falsely claiming Musk could be an “illegal alien.”
Legal experts, however, dismiss these threats as largely rhetorical. Political scientist Patrick Weil notes that denaturalization is rare and typically reserved for cases involving fraud or terrorism, neither of which applies to Musk, who became a U.S. citizen in 2002 after moving from South Africa via Canada. The U.S. government’s reliance on SpaceX for NASA and Defense Department contracts—worth billions annually—further limits Trump’s leverage, as no viable alternative exists.
Political Risks for Trump
Targeting Musk’s immigrant background could backfire. Musk’s public persona as an innovator and job creator resonates with many Americans, and 40% of voters in a July 2025 Quantus Insights poll expressed openness to supporting his party, including some Republicans. Trump’s threats risk alienating moderates and independents, who view Musk favorably (29% favorable vs. 59% unfavorable among independents, per a Quinnipiac poll). Moreover, such attacks could amplify accusations of authoritarianism, as warned by Senator Bernie Sanders, who labeled Musk and Trump’s actions as part of a shift toward oligarchy.
Appealing to the Next Generation
Musk’s America Party aims to capture the energy of young, independent-minded leaders like Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old New York City mayoral candidate and Democratic socialist born in Uganda. Mamdani, who has clashed with Trump over immigration policies, represents the kind of bold, outsider figure Musk might seek to recruit. However, Mamdani’s progressive stances, including his refusal to disavow the “globalize the intifada” slogan, align poorly with Musk’s increasingly right-leaning views, which have been criticized as anti-immigrant and transphobic.
Musk’s appeal to young leaders lies in his anti-establishment rhetoric and technological vision. Former Democratic candidate Andrew Yang, who contacted Musk in June 2025 to collaborate on a third party, argues that Musk’s success in building companies like Tesla and SpaceX could inspire a new generation. Yang’s Forward Party, which targets independents, claims 70% of local races are uncontested, offering opportunities for Musk to back young candidates in winnable seats. Yet, Musk’s polarizing actions, such as his controversial gesture at Trump’s inauguration, may alienate progressive youth.
Challenges in Mobilizing Youth
Musk’s shift to right-wing politics since 2022, including his $50 million donation to anti-Democrat groups and endorsement of figures like Ron DeSantis, complicates his appeal to progressive or centrist youth. His X posts promoting conspiracy theories about immigration and voter fraud have drawn criticism from figures like Olaf Scholz and the Anti-Defamation League, potentially repelling young leaders who prioritize social justice. A May 2024 study by political scientists found that disaffected partisans are unlikely to support a centrist third party, suggesting Musk’s platform may struggle to bridge ideological divides.
Will Musk’s Third-Party Plan Succeed?
Historical and Structural Barriers
History is unkind to third parties in the U.S. The two-party system, entrenched by first-past-the-post voting and state ballot access laws, has thwarted efforts like Ross Perot’s Reform Party and Theodore Roosevelt’s Progressive Party. Musk faces a “herculean task” to secure ballot access in all 50 states, a process that requires navigating complex regulations and spending millions on litigation. Experts like Thomas Gift argue that third parties often act as “spoilers,” splitting votes without winning seats, as seen in Perot’s 19.9% vote share in 1992, which benefited Democrats.
Musk’s plan to focus on a few key races—2–3 Senate seats and 8–10 House districts—could yield influence as a swing vote, but building a national party by 2026 is deemed unfeasible by analysts like Kappel. The Democratic and Republican machines, backed by established war chests, dominate voter outreach, making it difficult for Musk to compete on equal terms.
Potential for Disruption
Despite these hurdles, Musk’s resources and platform give him unique leverage. His X poll and a Kalshi betting market showing a 41–52% chance of the America Party forming by year-end reflect growing momentum. Support from figures like Yang and potential alliances with anti-establishment movements, such as the “Fight Oligarchy” campaign led by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, could amplify his impact. However, Musk’s unpopularity (59% unfavorable among independents) and Tesla’s recent sales dip due to his political stances pose risks.
Strategic Alternatives
Musk has hinted at working within the GOP, backing primary challenges against bill supporters like Representatives Andy Harris and Chip Roy. This dual strategy—building a party while influencing Republicans—could maximize his influence without committing to a full third-party structure. However, his recent pledge to reduce political spending, made at the Qatar Economic Forum in May 2025, raises questions about his commitment.
Trump’s GOP dominance
Elon Musk’s America Party represents a bold, if improbable, challenge to Trump’s GOP dominance. His wealth, X platform, and appeal to disaffected voters give him a shot at disrupting the two-party system, but structural barriers and Trump’s entrenched support make success unlikely by 2026. Trump’s threats to target Musk’s immigrant background are largely bluster, given Musk’s citizenship and SpaceX’s critical role in U.S. contracts. While Musk could inspire young leaders like Mamdani, his rightward shift may limit his appeal to progressives. The America Party’s fate hinges on Musk’s ability to sustain his financial and public commitment, but history suggests it may serve more as a pressure tactic than a viable alternative.
