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Think Tank Analysis: Wagner Group’s Return to Ukraine


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The Dark Side of the Ukraine Conflict

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In the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, recent developments have raised questions about the role of Wagner Group fighters and Ukraine’s strategic victories.

The Washington-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), has provided insights into these complex dynamics. This article delves into ISW’s assessments and examines the impact of Wagner Group fighters’ return on the conflict, as well as Ukraine’s reported success in countering Russian forces.


Wagner Group Fighters’ Return: Limited Impact


ISW’s analysis indicates that some Wagner Group fighters may be returning to fight alongside the Russian army in Ukraine. However, the think tank suggests that these mercenaries may not significantly influence the tide of the conflict in favor of the Russians. ISW highlights that these fighters are returning in a disjointed manner and lack the cohesiveness they had when under the leadership of Yevgeniy Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin. This fragmentation is likely to diminish their effectiveness as a fighting force.


Wagner’s Fragmentation: A Challenge for Russian Combat Capabilities


The think tank underscores that the fragmented nature of Wagner forces makes it unlikely for them to organize into a cohesive fighting force or have a substantial impact on Russian combat capabilities if they return to the frontlines in Ukraine. This fragmentation may hinder their ability to coordinate and execute operations effectively, limiting their effectiveness as a fighting unit.


Ukraine’s Counteroffensive: A Strategic Victory


ISW’s report also sheds light on Ukraine’s strategic successes in countering Russian forces. Ukraine’s spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, announced that the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, a unit of the Black Sea Fleet, had withdrawn after being defeated during Ukraine’s counteroffensive. The think tank notes that this description aligns with the US military’s definition of a mission to “destroy,” which means rendering an enemy force “combat-ineffective until it is reconstituted.”


Emblematic Challenges for the Russian Military


The 810th Brigade’s destruction is emblematic of broader challenges facing the Russian military. The UK Ministry of Defense has reported that the Russian military is grappling with “extreme attrition and high turnover.” These issues have contributed to the heavy losses suffered by the brigade, which has experienced significant casualties and difficulties in retaining personnel.


Recruitment and Conscription: Russia’s Strategy


Despite the challenges and losses, Russia has a sizable population from which to recruit and conscript soldiers, enabling the continuous replenishment of its ranks. This recruitment strategy allows Russia to maintain a significant military presence in the conflict.




ISW’s assessments provide valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine. The return of Wagner Group fighters, though fragmented, remains a matter of concern. However, their impact on the conflict may be limited due to their disjointed nature. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s strategic victories, such as the destruction of the 810th Brigade, illustrate the resilience and determination of Ukrainian forces. As the conflict continues, monitoring these developments and their implications will remain crucial for understanding the evolving landscape in Ukraine.

Saeed Minhas
Saeed Minhas
Saeed Minhas is an accomplished journalist with extensive experience in the field. He has held prominent positions such as Editor at Daily Times and Daily Duniya. Currently, he serves as the Chief Editor (National) at The Think Tank Journal

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