Pakistan and Afghanistan are currently grappling with severe weather challenges exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon. Recent extreme rainfall in these regions has led to devastating flash floods, highlighting the critical need for improved climate resilience and adaptation strategies.
Impact of El Niño on Recent Flooding
Increased Rainfall
El Niño was the primary driver behind the extreme rainfall experienced in April and May 2024 across Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan. A new study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that El Niño doubled the likelihood of extreme rainfall, contributing to widespread flash flooding. Over the past 40 years, rainfall in this region has increased by 25%, significantly raising the risk of such catastrophic events .
Flash Flood Devastation
The heavy rains resulted in deadly flash floods, killing at least 500 people in Afghanistan, 124 in Pakistan, and 18 in Iran. Thousands of homes were destroyed, and vast areas of crops were wiped out, worsening food shortages and threatening agricultural livelihoods . The floods particularly impacted displaced populations, who were already vulnerable due to inadequate infrastructure and exposure to waterborne diseases .
Climate Change and Flood Vulnerability
While the study could not definitively prove that climate change was responsible for the increased rainfall, it identified climate change as a probable explanation. Prior drought conditions, exacerbated by climate change, intensified the impact of the subsequent rainfall .
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Socio-Economic and Environmental Factors
Pakistan and Afghanistan are highly vulnerable to flooding due to several factors:
- Limited Transboundary Water Management: Ineffective management of shared water resources exacerbates flood risks.
- Unplanned Urban Expansion: Rapid urbanization without proper planning increases vulnerability to floods.
- Deforestation: Loss of forest cover reduces the natural absorption capacity of the land, leading to higher flood risks.
- Existing Vulnerabilities: Complex socio-economic conditions, including poverty and displacement, compound the impact of natural hazards like floods, earthquakes, and landslides .
Need for Improved Infrastructure and Early Warning Systems
The devastating floods highlight the urgent need for improved infrastructure and early warning systems in the region. Enhancing flood-resilient infrastructure and implementing comprehensive nature-based solutions can significantly mitigate the impact of such extreme weather events. Increasing the coverage of early warning systems is crucial to help at-risk communities prepare for and respond to impending floods .
Human-Induced Climate Change and Model Discrepancies
To assess the role of human-induced climate change, researchers combined observation-based data and climate models. While observational data over the past 40 years show an increase in heavy rainfall, climate models produced mixed results. This discrepancy prevents a definitive conclusion that human-induced climate change is the primary driver of the observed trends. However, the absence of conclusive evidence does not negate the potential influence of climate change on increasing rainfall intensity in the region .
Policy and Adaptation Measures
There are significant opportunities to improve climate adaptation and resilience in Pakistan and Afghanistan:
- Investing in Resilient Infrastructure: Building and reinforcing infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events is crucial.
- Nature-Based Solutions: Implementing solutions like reforestation and wetland restoration can help absorb excess rainfall.
- Comprehensive Flood Risk Management: Developing robust flood risk management policies and plans is essential to mitigate future risks.
- Enhanced Early Warning Systems: Expanding and improving early warning systems can provide timely alerts to vulnerable communities, enabling better preparedness and response .
Extreme weather events
The extreme weather events driven by El Niño have underscored the critical vulnerabilities of Pakistan and Afghanistan to climate-related disasters. While human-induced climate change remains a probable factor in the increased rainfall, further research is needed to establish definitive links. Meanwhile, investing in resilient infrastructure, comprehensive flood risk management, and early warning systems is imperative to safeguard communities against future extreme weather events.
By addressing these challenges proactively, Pakistan and Afghanistan can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of climate change, ensuring a more secure and resilient future for their populations.